Retirementdough May 2022 Portfolio

Portfolio Update 5/28/22 8:30AM

It’s been a month since I posted my last portfolio update found here;…

I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.

Current Portfolio as of 5/28/22.  
Change since 5/1/22		   	  -29.1%		YTD	-58.4%

VTI Monthly 				   -6.7%   		YTD	-34.9%

I have decided to just benchmark versus the VTI which is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which is probably what I would put my money into if I did not want to spend time researching stocks. VTI includes all 3600 stocks traded in market.

Stock		% Portfolio 	  % Portfolio	       % Change 	Market         Monthly Stock 
		  Current	    Previous	         Portfolio  	Cap (B)        Price change %
UPST		  79.5		    78.4                  +1.1	           4.3		-35.6
UPST options	  13.3		       0	         +13.3
CASH		   6.8               0.5                  +6.3            

New positions since last portfolio update: NONE

Exited positions since last update: MNDY

Trades between 5/1/22-5/28/22

Bought: 	UPST		5/10		35.03	
		UPST		5/20		42.95; 47.01
Sold: 		MNDY		5/9		107.29

Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.

Yozzer, that was the toughest month since I began managing my own investments (I started in 1999). 2008 was tough as well but I have more money to lose now and it seems to take a bigger toll on one’s psyche. I had been only invested in two companies Upstart and Monday.

Upstart reported earning first and got completely hammered. It was unexpected, it dropped so far so fast, it was unnerving. I sold my MNDY shares before they reported for two fold reason. I wanted to ensure they did not drop like a rock after earnings, since I just began investing in company I had not done as much research on them, thus was less confident in them. The second reason was I wanted to use money to invest more in Upstart.

After the initial shock of Upstarts earnings and understanding what had happened I became more bullish that the price was a gift that I believe when we look back in six months to a year it will seem like an opportunity.

What happened with Upstart’s earnings? Two primary things that influenced it negatively. The first was softening of future earnings. This to me was not that big of a deal. Most growth companies have been softening future revenue outlook. The second reason was because Upstart took some of their approved loans onto their balance sheet. This was the most disturbing thing to the market and investors.

Pretty much right after the earnings report the company clarified why they did that with the loans and stated that they would not be doing that in the future. It was basically 3% of their loans in the quarter. Why they put the loans on balance sheet was to secure more approved loans during the quarter, had they not done that move they would have reported approximately 3% less revenue, as they are paid a fee on origination of loans. So hard fast assumption is 3% less loans, 3% less revenue, that is approximately 9m dollars for the quarter of revenue.

They since have sold those loans off their balance sheet. They have also taken on R&D loans for new auto loan products. They will hold these for next 6 months or so to ensure their performance before selling them off to investors. I see the R&D loans as a good thing, as it points to future revenue growth in auto lending segment.

I took advantage of the fear surrounding UPST and bought Jan 2024 calls at different price points ranging from $30-95. I also have been selling covered calls to raise cash for these long call purchases. The reason I am holding any cash at all is one just placed on Friday. My plan is to sell puts for next week and use the cash to cover. There is so much volatility around this stock currently I am taking advantage to use my stock position to raise cash and use that cash for long calls or more stock purchases.

I typically do not mess with options but I want to take advantage of what I feel is a huge opportunity.

Company Updates
Upstart UPST
MC 4.3B
TAM 1.4T…

Monthly performance of stock for May was -35.6% following a similarly brutal March and April. YTD -65.2%

Upstart announced first quarter 2022 results…

Revenue. Total revenue was $310 million, an increase of 156% from the first quarter of 2021. Total fee revenue was $314 million, an increase of 170% year-over-year.

Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate. Bank partners originated 465,537 loans, totaling $4.5 billion, across our platform in the first quarter, up 174% from the same quarter of the prior year. Conversion on rate requests was 21% in the first quarter of 2022, down from 22% in the same quarter of the prior year.

Income from Operations. Income from operations was $34.8 million, up from $15.6 million the prior year.
Net Income and EPS. GAAP net income was $32.7 million, up from $10.1 million in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted net income was $58.6 million, up from $19.9 million in the same quarter of the prior year. Accordingly, GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.34, and diluted adjusted earnings per share was $0.61 based on the weighted-average common shares outstanding during the period.

Contribution Profit. Contribution profit was $147.8 million, up 165% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2022, with a contribution margin of 47% compared to a 48% contribution margin in the same quarter of the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $62.6 million, up from $21.0 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The first quarter 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin was 20% of total revenue, up from 17% in the first quarter of 2021.

Financial Outlook For the second quarter of 2022, Upstart expects:
Revenue of $295 to $305 million
Contribution Margin of approximately 45%
Net Income of ($4) to $0 million
Adjusted Net Income of $28 to $30 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $32 to $34 million
Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 85.0 million shares
Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 96.2 million shares
For the full year 2022, Upstart now expects:
Revenue of approximately $1.25 billion
Contribution Margin of approximately 48%
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 15%

Upstart Announces Upstart AI Lending for Salesforce on Salesforce AppExchange, the World’s Leading Enterprise Cloud Marketplace…

Firstmark Credit Union Selects Upstart for Personal Lending…

Sharonview Federal Credit Union Selects Upstart for Personal Lending…

"Mar 2022 info Fiscal Q1 2022 ended 3/31/22. Reported on 5/8/22."	Year/year change
REVENUE	                                311.10M                  	154.21%
NET INCOME	                         32.69M	                        223.62%
DILUTED EPS	                           0.34                  	209.09%
NET PROFIT MARGIN	                 10.51%	                         27.39%
OPERATING INCOME	                 35.79M	                        115.56%
NET CHANGE IN CASH	               -178.55M	                       -821.90%
CASH AND EQUIVALENTS	                757.83M	                        194.86%
COST OF REVENUE	                         48.41M	                        178.39%

**YTD return of portfolio for each month** 

January  	-30.4%
February	 -9.4%
March		-19.5%
April		-41.3%
May		-58.4%  (low of year 5/9 -66%)

I think sharing ones portfolio can be a helpful endeavor but obviously I have a huge tolerance for risk. I base my investment decision on my analysis and thoughts alone. I listen and weigh others thoughts and information but never hold them accountable for any investment decisions that I make. Portfolio allocation is another unique decision for all investors. I obviously am extremely highly concentrated. This investment style is not for the faint of heart. It requires quick decision making and action if one feels there is a change in investment thesis. I state all of this to clarify that one should study and hold yourself responsible for investment decisions. New investors should take the time to learn first before investing their hard earned money.