Run-up to Russia invasion of Ukraine

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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After a week of Russian negotiations with NATO on the Russian troop buildup surrounding Ukraine, neither side has budged.

It’s clear that the negotiations were only a pretext to prevent an accusation of a surprise attack and naked aggression.

The next step is the provocation for an attack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukrain…

**U.S. Charges Russia Sent Saboteurs Into Ukraine to Create Pretext for Invasion**

**The intelligence said the operatives were “trained in urban warfare and in using explosives,” and could try to stage an incident.**

**By David E. Sanger, The New York Times, Jan. 14, 2022**

**...**
**The White House did not release details of the evidence it had collected to back up its charge, though one official said it was a mix of intercepted communications and observations of the movements of people. In an email, a U.S. official wrote that “Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine...**

**The U.S. official who described the intelligence, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, added that the assessment found that “the Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February. We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea."....** [end quote]

The best time for an invasion would be after the ground freezes so the tanks won’t get bogged down in mud.

Ukraine is not part of NATO. The U.S. has not promised boots on the ground to defend Ukraine, but will place strong financial and economic penalties on Russia.

It’s clear that Vladimir Putin wants to re-incorporate Ukraine to significantly recreate the old USSR. Ukraine used to be called “the breadbasket of the USSR.” I think this is all but a fait accompli.

Since Russia doesn’t have many economic ties with the U.S., the invasion may roil the markets temporarily but I don’t think it will have a large, lasting effect.

Medium-sized nuclear (or pre-nuclear) powers around the world will observe that Ukraine gave up its significant nuclear arsenal when the USSR fell on the pledge that it would be safe. How different would the situation be today if Ukraine still had nukes to point at Moscow? This will help destabilize regions as countries like Iran and North Korea will get this message loud and clear.

Wendy

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In the longer run if Russia invades she will be greatly weakened.

The west will have a concrete reason to bring countries into NATO later.

As if we do not have that reason now.

Think of Russia or the Soviets in Afghanistan. We armed the Taliban and possibly others to shoot down the helicopters. Russia shrank in that war. Quite literally in the aftermath.

I hate to think of the deaths of Ukrainians in this.

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Ukraine is not part of NATO. The U.S. has not promised boots on the ground to defend Ukraine, but will place strong financial and economic penalties on Russia.

Medium-sized nuclear (or pre-nuclear) powers around the world will observe that Ukraine gave up its significant nuclear arsenal when the USSR fell on the pledge that it would be safe. How different would the situation be today if Ukraine still had nukes to point at Moscow? This will help destabilize regions as countries like Iran and North Korea will get this message loud and clear.

Wendy

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Maybe you do not know about the assurances that United States has given to Ukraine. Please read the following:

Had Ukraine decided to establish full operational control of the nuclear weapons, it would have faced sanctions by the West and perhaps even a withdrawal of diplomatic recognition by the United States and other NATO allies. Ukraine would also likely have faced retaliatory action by Russia. Ukraine would also have struggled with replacing the nuclear weapons once their service life expired, as Ukraine did not have a nuclear weapons program. In exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensation, as well as the security assurances of the Budapest Memorandum.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0043820016673777

Budapest Memorandum

On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The four parties signed the memorandum, containing a preamble and six paragraphs. The memorandum reads as follows:

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State, taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time, noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces confirm the following:

  1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

  2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

  3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

  4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

  5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.

  6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

—?Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

Jaak

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<Maybe you do not know about the assurances that United States has given to Ukraine. Please read the following:

  1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine…

  2. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.>

Yes, I knew about these.

We’re consulting! (For all the good that will do Ukraine.)

Jaak, what’s your take on the situation? Do you think Russia will invade Ukraine? If so, what do you think will happen.

Wendy

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Jaak, what’s your take on the situation? Do you think Russia will invade Ukraine? If so, what do you think will happen.

Wendy

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IMO, Russia will not make a large direct cross border attack. Russia likes to use small false flag incursions that can not be directly attributed to Russia (like the green men that took over Crimea). This will result in small hot battles in certain areas and Russia may be looking for a excuse to escalate. The Russians may also try to use cyber attacks on Ukraine - but I think the are afraid of using cyber attacks again on NATO/EU countries.

IMO, this will be a long drawn out game of cat and mouse without exploding into a major cross border conflict.

IMO, if the situation does becomes a cross border conflict, then USA will patrol the Ukrainian airspace and provided air support to any conflicts on the ground inside Ukraine. If the Russians fly in the Ukrainian airspace the will be escorted out or shot down. If Russians shoot at or hit any USA aircraft inside the Ukrainian air space, then they will be shot down. If the Russians start bombing inside Ukraine then total war will begin.

Jaak

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Jaak, what’s your take on the situation? Do you think Russia will invade Ukraine? If so, what do you think will happen.

My position has been that Putin is just trying to extract concessions from the west, just for pulling the troops out. Then, in a year or two, Putin can mass forces on the border again, to extract more concessions from the west. Wash, rinse, repeat. The problem seems to be that the west is pushing back harder than he anticipated. So, what does he do to save face? The rhubarb in Kazakhstan offered an excuse to redeploy the troops into a more willing victim.

Steve

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Hell if I know what Putin’s list of possible settlement gains is, but I would be amazed if it did not include, in return for Russian withdrawal and blah blah blah of guarantees

  1. Ukraine for all time cedes all claims to the Crimea, never part of historic or cultural Ukraine except through what was considered a minor bureaucratic measure within the Soviet Union for still obscure bureaucratic reasons;

  2. similar for the Donetsk basin, whose population overwhelmingly speaks Russian rather than Ukrainian, are descended from Russian immigrants of the last hundred years, will fairly reliably vote for reunion with Russia, abd whose industrial infrastructure (now antiquated and decrepit) was overwhelmingly paid for and integrated with Russia;

  3. similar for Odessa and its municipal region for similar reasons as 1 and 2;

  4. various ancillary measures in support of 1-3 above.

Of course, in the long run Russia has always and perhaps will always design to gain total control of the entire northern and western Black Sea, but that would be put off for the future…

David fb

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IMO, if the situation does becomes a cross border conflict, then USA will patrol the Ukrainian airspace and provided air support to any conflicts on the ground inside Ukraine. If the Russians fly in the Ukrainian airspace the will be escorted out or shot down. If Russians shoot at or hit any USA aircraft inside the Ukrainian air space, then they will be shot down. If the Russians start bombing inside Ukraine then total war will begin.

One wonders whether Putin and Xi have a tacit agreement that whichever conflict turns into kinetic warfare first - Ukraine or Taiwan - the other will immediately start a war over their coveted territory in order to force the US to fight on two fronts at once.

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Notehound7
One wonders whether Putin and Xi have a tacit agreement that whichever conflict turns into kinetic warfare first - Ukraine or Taiwan

Into that brewing stew, we can add the state of affairs of the North Korea/South Korea and Israel/Iran tensions.

It might not be an overstatement of the facts that we’re facing as serious a situation as when JFK stared down the USSR over Cuba-based ICBM’s 60 years ago.

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It might not be an overstatement of the facts that we’re facing as serious a situation as when JFK stared down the USSR over Cuba-based ICBM’s 60 years ago.

Big difference in that the US instigated the crisis when the CIA invaded Cuba forcing the Cubans to look for a “Big Brother”?

Meanwhile our GIC (Girl In Charge) of Foreign Affairs is off to add weight and visit the ~ 200 Canadian troops currently training Ukrainian Soldiers.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/foreign-affairs-minist…

cbc.ca
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly to visit Ukraine as it faces threat of Russian invasion

CBC/Radio-Canada 3 hrs ago

Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly will make a high-stakes visit to Ukraine next week as the country faces a heightened threat of invasion by Russian forces.

Joly’s office said the six-day trip is to “reaffirm Canada’s steadfast support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Joly plans to meet in Kyiv with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna. She’s also expected to visit Canadian troops stationed in Ukraine to support the local military.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canadian-troops-in-ukraine-p…

Canadian troops in Ukraine pressing ahead with training mission amid Russia tensions

Lee Berthiaume The Canadian Press

Published Thursday, January 13, 2022 2:35PM EST

OTTAWA – The commander of Canadian troops in Ukraine says his soldiers are pressing ahead with their mission – preparing the eastern European country’s military for war – amid the looming threat of a Russian invasion.

In an exclusive interview with The Canadian Press, Lt.-Col. Luc-Frederic Gilbert said he and others are closely watching as diplomats try to avert a possible war following the deployment of 100,000 Russian troops to the border with Ukraine.

…

Gilbert commands a contingent of about 200 Canadian soldiers who have been deployed on what is known as Operation Unifier. Their mission: train Ukrainian counterparts in everything from the basics of soldiering to advanced engineering and medical skills.

OT - We have our second Nor’Easter in a week here in Halifax and Varadero Cuba is going to 26C today!

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David fb,

Russia wants Nato out of 14 countries that were in the the Soviet sphere.

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Of course, in the long run Russia has always and perhaps will always design to gain total control of the entire northern and western Black Sea, but that would be put off for the future…

“Let’s compromise: give us half of what we want now, and in exchange we’ll promise to not ask for the other half again until tomorrow.”

1 Like