Georgia on my mind -> Ukraine

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Idle thoughts based on no facts:

  1. Russia does not want to “own” Ukraine, but deeply desires a buffer between it and Europe which is friendly to its regime.

  2. Ukraine, supported by the US, the EU and the UK (et al) still support the position that the portion of the Ukraine which split away, with Russian baking, should be returned to its former owners.

  3. Russia has assembled overwhelming military force on Ukraine’s borders, while stating they are not intending to invade Ukraine.

  4. The US has pledged to “lower the boom” should Russia invade Ukraine,

  5. The US/NATO intelligence services are likely aware of Russia’s intentions.

My belief is that it is Russia’s intention to supply the necessary military leverage, without attacking Ukraine proper, to allow the break-away state of Eastern Ukraine to either announce legitimate sovereignty ala Kosovo or Bangladesh or alternatively annex it. This would allow the US to save face, if it desired by claiming that it prevented an invasion of Ukraine with its threats.

The status quo would be preserved with the sole event being the abandonment of Ukraine’s claims on its lost eastern provinces and Crimea whose populations are majority ethnic Russian in any case.

Jeff

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This would allow the US to save face, if it desired by claiming that it prevented an invasion of Ukraine with its threats.

Jeff,

While done in two very different fashions the last two presidents 2017 till now have never tried to save face. It is not their styles. It is also something a free press wont entertain.

There are two different ways of playing Risk the board game here. The Russian power v the American incentives.

I do not mean incentives for Russia. I mean incentives for democracy and prosperity in the west. In this regard Putin has lost before he begins.

There is an overarching reality. When, hard to bother with an “if”, Putin invades over time he will lose very badly. The results a few years from now will be a breakdown in Russian society. Another opportunity for incentives.

We do not play for today or tomorrow.

Xi was trying offer incentives. He is not going to make it on the money end of it. Xi has no other incentives. Even other dictators really do not see his government model as an incentive.

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The status quo would be preserved with the sole event being the abandonment of Ukraine’s claims on its lost eastern provinces and Crimea whose populations are majority ethnic Russian in any case.

Just because they are ethnic Russian does not mean they want the area they live in to be part of Russia.

Neither does an election on the question, run by the folks who are accustomed to having 98%+ of voters vote in their favor and never having anyone vote against them twice…

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1) Russia does not want to “own” Ukraine, but deeply desires a buffer between it and Europe which is friendly to its regime.

A few weeks ago, Putin escalated his demands. He wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria too. Those two countries are full members of NATO.

January 21, 2022

Russia wants NATO forces to leave Romania, Bulgaria - foreign ministry

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-wants-nato-force…

So, once Ukraine is occupied, and Moldova would hardly be a speed bump, then, will he demand NATO pull back farther? How much of a “buffer” would he want? To the English Channel?

And I bet he will demand partition of Lithuania, another NATO member, so he can have land access to Kaliningrad.

to allow the break-away state of Eastern Ukraine to either announce legitimate sovereignty ala Kosovo or Bangladesh or alternatively annex it.

Ukraine has had about 14,000 KIA fighting that insurgency. Will they be willing to let it go so easily, after investing so much in hanging on to it?

Steve

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My belief is that it is Russia’s intention to supply the necessary military leverage, without attacking Ukraine proper, to allow the break-away state of Eastern Ukraine to either announce legitimate sovereignty ala Kosovo or Bangladesh or alternatively annex it. This would allow the US to save face, if it desired by claiming that it prevented an invasion of Ukraine with its threats.

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The ethnic Russians living in Donetsk and Luhansk have lost their admiration of Russia government as their benefactor. They even wish that the Ukrainians would take back these areas because their life was better under Ukrainian government. So what you are suggesting does not help Russia (Putin) or the people living in Donetsk and Luhansk.

I am beginning to think that Putin is just another sociopath who does not care if he kills thousands of people and loses thousands of his own soldiers.

Jaak

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<Idle thoughts based on no facts:

  1. Russia does not want to “own” Ukraine, but deeply desires a buffer between it and Europe which is friendly to its regime.>

Fact: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. There’s no question that he would like to reassemble the USSR if he could…not to mention that Ukraine was “the breadbasket of the USSR” which provided essential food and access to southern waters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4480745.stm

<4) The US has pledged to “lower the boom” should Russia invade Ukraine>

At no point has the U.S. pledged boots on the ground to fight Russians. Putin may not care about sanctions that we are threatening. Not to mention that U.S. credibility is pretty tattered since the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

<Ukraine’s claims on its lost eastern provinces and Crimea whose populations are majority ethnic Russian in any case.>

A poll of ethnic Russians in Donetsk province revealed that the majority want to be part of Ukraine, not Russia. That section of the country has been trashed by the Russian invasion. An independent videographer did a YouTube video where he took public transportation all over the province and filmed the cities and towns. There’s been a lot of destruction and the economy of the region has been ruined.

Of course, Putin doesn’t care what people want, whether they are ethnic Russian or not. As for America “saving face,” that’s pretty irrelevant. Ukraine isn’t in NATO. We have no obligation to defend Ukraine. Most Americans think we should butt out.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-u-s-involvement-…

Of course, time will tell. And not too much time – less than a month.

Wendy

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No, he’s just a typical Russian ruler. Russian history since time began has only ruler who actually seemed to care about the people’s well-being – Gorbachev. Reading Russian history is enough to make me think it’s a miracle that anyone survived. And that’s just their own rulers, not even counting the depredations of their enemies.

Wendy

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Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

No, he’s just a typical Russian ruler. Russian history since time began has only ruler who actually seemed to care about the people’s well-being …

A somewhat dated but still pertinent article about the quality and treatment of the drafted Russian soldier. Officers stole their pay, wealthy parents paid bribes to keep their sons out, brutal NCOs treated the newbies as punching bags, and some literally starved to death because the money meant to feed them was stolen by their officers.

Of interest to me, while the army drafts for 2 years the Russian navy requires 3 years service due to longer training time requirements. You are required to train your replacement before you can leave … which leads to “training to the test”. Russian submarine crews have are far larger officer to enlisted ratio than there NATO opponents as it was needed to keep up the experience level. Aircraft maintenance also suffered from high turnover rates and you might end up with a Lt Col fixing your airplane where a corporal in NATO would be doing it.

Fast forward from the early days after the fall of the wall and the oligarchs stole the money intended for modern equipment. The new T-14 Armata tank was funded for 2400 units but the money ran out after the first 100 were built. The company that produces them has gone to selling them at international arms venues to keep the plant open. Meanwhile the Russian tank corp are still using cold war T-72s.

https://www.hrw.org/reports/2002/russia/russia1102-01.htm#:~….

BACKGROUND ON CONSCRIPTION IN RUSSIA

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No, he’s just a typical Russian ruler. Russian history since time began has only ruler who actually seemed to care about the people’s well-being – Gorbachev. Reading Russian history is enough to make me think it’s a miracle that anyone survived. And that’s just their own rulers, not even counting the depredations of their enemies.

Wendy

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Stalin, who had ruled the USSR with an iron hand since the end of the 1920s is responsible for mass murders.

The Ukrainians despise Russians. The Russians are the perpetrators of 4 to 7 million Ukrainian deaths due to hunger (Holodomor) manufactured by the Russians from 1932 to 1933. The Ukrainians believe the Holodomor was genocide. Scholars believe that the famine was planned by Stalin to eliminate a Ukrainian independence movement.

After the Holodomor, Stalin launched the Great Purge in January 1934 to consolidate his power. Which resulted in Russians and Russia’s neighbors to be subject to mass murders and deportations of general populations. The following peoples were the victims of Stalin’s mass murders and deportations:

Ukrainians, Finns, Ingrians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Byelorussians, Germans, Poles, Turks, Bulgarians, Greeks, Armenians, Moldavians, Tatars, Jews, Chechens, Ingush, Kalmyks, Chinese, Koreans and other ethnic groups.

Stalin’s crimes over 25 years were much greater than Hitler’s crimes over 10 years.

https://www.sciencespo.fr/mass-violence-war-massacre-resista…

Jaak

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