That’s been Peter Zeihan hobby horse for a while. He’s been arguing Putin had to start the war now because Russia’s demographics are so unfavorable that Russia won’t be able to expand in the future.
Ziehan is pretty hyperbolic, but there might be a grain of truth in there. It hasn’t prevented Russia from using their meat wave military doctrine, it should be said. Although Russia doesn’t seem to have much choice.
Ukraine is in just as bad shape, demographically. Their draft age is like 25 or something because they don’t want to to lose too many young people in the war.
Tactics have changed. Russia is sending small teams of poorly supported troops in order to draw fire and expose Ukrainian positions. But most often, these teams are spotted and obliterated by Ukrainian drones. Russian commanders have no choice but to send in more troops which again are obliterated.
The result is skyrocketing Russian casualties, up to 30-40,000 a month, the highest rates of the war. This is likely outpacing the estimated 27,000 Russian troops that can be generated, despite enormous recruitment bonuses.
Worse for Russia, its territorial gains–which were never great to begin with–have slowed to the point where Ukraine has been able to recapture slightly more territory that it is losing in recent months.
I’m not sure how this plays out, but it looks like there has been a shift from Russia barely winning at great cost, to barely losing at even greater cost. There might come a point where the losses are no longer sustainable, even for Putin.
Menwhile Crimea is experiencing a massive exodus of Rusians, both of rooted inhabitants and vacationers, and a collapse of its bizarre “Russian Riviera vacation destination” that went on despite the war around it.
Historically true. But I wonder if they will tolerate a winter without adequate energy supplies? Maybe that’s the current Ukrainian strategy - destroy energy infrastructure in the summer, so that as winter arrives, there may be less and less appetite to keep the war going.
In related news, overnight Ukraine struck eight sanctioned Russian tankers believed to be carrying gasoline to Crimea, as well as a number of other logistical and strategic targets.
The populations are extremely similar. BUT the Ukrainians have western shipments of various things coming in on a regular basis, Russia only has minimal shipments coming in.
Actually, no, they are quite distinct. For large stretches of their history Ukrainians exercised significant local control under Polish/Lithuanian and Hapsburg sovereignty and taxing authority, their quite distinct minority Cossack culture also shaped them to far less submissiveness than Russian serfs, while during the 19th century they absorbed much more “enlightenment” cultural attitudes and technical knowledge than Russians.
Cossack culture is a unique, highly militarized, and freedom-centered way of life that emerged in the Eurasian steppes during the 15th century. Derived from the Turkic word kazak (meaning “free man” or “adventurer”), Cossacks were not originally a single ethnic group. Instead, they began as diverse communities of runaway serfs, peasants, and adventurers who fled central authorities in Poland, Lithuania, and Muscovy to settle the lawless “Wild Fields” north of the Black and Caspian Seas. Over generations, they developed a distinct ethno-social identity defined by democratic self-rule, exceptional martial arts, and deeply rooted Eastern Orthodox Christian traditions.
YEAP, thems the ones! I briefly (sigh, such a sweet smart guy) had a boy friend who was permanently sad over having lost his cossack…. He said I was as rowdy and weird, but nowhere near as romantic…..
If you want to get a sense of the fuel crisis gripping Russia, all you need to do is spend a day driving around Moscow. At almost every petrol station we passed there was a queue of cars and lorries. Some lines were long, some short; some static, others moving steadily.