Zeihan opinion:“It really doesn’t matter if Putin goes bye bye.”
Russia is in contention for the worst demographics in the world…Ukraine and China are up there too. One reason is the vast demographic gouges caused by past trauma, the big one being the collapse of the Soviet Union, which doubled the mortality rate and halved the birth rate. More recently, over a million people have fled Russia since the war started, many being young men avoiding the draft.
The collapsing government and nonexistent education system amplify this grim situation. With all these factors stacking up, Russia views its position as existential (because it is). The only path to survival is expanding and conquering the necessary geographical barriers.
This war has to end with one side being completely defeated. Even if the Ukrainians can humiliate Putin to the point that revolutions break out in Moscow and they put a democratic government in power, the Russians wouldn’t be able to climb out of the hole they’ve dug. The Russians are in this thing until the end. And their demise is coming this century. The only question is will it be in a few years or decades?
As for Putin, it doesn’t really matter if he goes bye-bye. There are scores within Russia’s top rungs ready to see this to the end. Remember: this war isn’t about one man’s ego, but rather Russia’s survival strategy.
Prigozhin calls off march on Moscow to avert ‘Russian bloodshed’
edit:
The head of the private Russian military company Wagner will move to neighboring Belarus as part of deal to defuse rebellion tensions and the criminal case against him will be closed, the Kremlin said Saturday.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
…
Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that even with a deal, Putin’s position has probably been weakened and “these events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military.”
So you think this is just a bad “western report”; that Wagner did not take and occupy the Russian military HQ at Rostov…or that it is a false flag friction planned by the two P’s to lull the west…or what?
Saturday, June 24, 2023 4:27 PM ET
The move came after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, halted his forces’ march on Moscow. Russia said he would go to Belarus.|
“Do not march on Moscow” does not apply to boyars and muscovite princes, but only to European would be emperors.
But I suspect this whole damn crazy thing is a “maskirovka”, a masquerade of the Russian sort meant to delude and hide reality before the real attack begins.
I suspect Prigozhin and Putin mean to shame and displace the Russian War ministry and top army officials and subordinate them to Putin’s base in the intelligence services and to Prigozhin mercenaries.
There is more to this. That is a huge goal. That would be the first reality.
But this is more difficult. Putin and the generals can to trust Prigozhin. Prigozhin can no longer trust anyone. Putin can no longer trust anyone. The military has to assert itself in Ukraine but is stretched thin.
This is a spaghetti western. They are looking at each other to kill. Putin is going to decide that both Prigozhin and the military brass are done. It is a matter of time. That brings in the secret service, the spooks. Putin can not trust them either.
The temperature in the pot is boiling. The odd thing is the frogs turned up the heat.
The Ukrainians in your theory would get the worst of it. That is not going to happen at all.
Putin and Prigozhin do not know enough to make that happen.
Stalin did it through sheer force but in a time when military matters were a lot simpler. Putin can not fight wars without his military brass. He can not fight to defend Moscow without his military leaders.
Always underestimate a dictator’s intelligence. Power makes stupid happen.
I can’t believe that Prigozhin is that naive. He has to realize that, wherever he is, the FSB will find him and kill him, because that is the way Putin deals with “problems”. The evening news likened the situation to a Mafia power grab by a capo. How does the mob deal with someone who goes off the line?
Prigozhin is the proverbial dog that caught the car. He got 120 miles from Moscow with virtually no resistance. Sorry guys, just kidding. The safest place for him might be an OceanGate submersible.
Putin has a terminal diagnosis for Russian leaders. Looking weak.
There is a big factor underneath it all. Perhaps. The Russian military may have a group of officers planning a coup. That would explain possibly Putin’s move to bring his command to St. Petersburg. Avoid a coup and take control. If the military acts out the FSB acts on the military leadership. Putin is not sitting in Moscow as a target. Prigozhin might be Putin’s cover and nothing more.
I am catching up with david fb’s subplot.
Prigozhin supposedly can not be found. He is alive. Putin has left no forwarding address. He is probably in St. Petersburg. Meanwhile the generals in Moscow are where we last left them as sitting ducks.
Definitely. Fishy as hell. Looks staged but I’m not sure exactly what message they wanted it to send. Maybe “be careful what you wish for.” If Putin’s dumped an even worse nightmare might be the new boss…? Maybe something more “internal” and therefore obscure and of no meaningful consequence The West …? I doubt it’s simply a contrived red herring just to make us look and keep waiting for some “other shoe to drop.”
I think we’d get a Yeltsin if only because the Russian public would demand a softer hand.
The Russian territory is at a cross roads. Historically too big for an uprising to gather enough energy to topple the government usually that then invited dictators. Now with the internet age gathering forces in Russia will demand a democratic republic longer term. Once Putin is gone Moscow will probably reform more permanently. Yeltsin faced a Russia with less wealth and fewer communication avenues. He could not hold the center.
That is probably the nicest thing I have ever said about Russia.
If you’re talking about what the Russian people want, I think you’re right. But, that’s not the way a coup has to go. That’s what Putin might have been playing to. And he doesn’t have to guess right either. You just try things and hope they work.
Recent events could all blow back and put someone’s eye out in the coming weeks. Or, maybe I’m wrong from the word “go” and it wasn’t staged or coordinated at all, and his post “events” behavior is just weird…? But I am not a proponent of any of these possibilities, ha ha. I wouldn’t bet a dime on anything. At this point it’s just some people talkin’ about stuff.
The Independent