The military has an interest in a softer hand. The party has an interest in a softer hand. The party has not really had any power for most of two decades.
By softer hand I am talking power sharing among vested interests and a progressive economy. That last bit being the biggest factor.
Another tyrant would be bad for business.
I am baffled and awaiting reliable news that is not forthcoming, and I am dropping my maskirovka explanation as there is too much weirdness and chaos to be explained by fakey moves that were pre-planned,
I found David Ignatius column in WP to be a useful modest review of what we know at this point.
david fb
(wouldnât it be marvelous if Putinâs degenerate Russia disintegrates? YIKES, be careful of what you wish for because there are so many downsides now possible)
If Putin âblinkedâ, why didnât Prigozhin press his momentum? Makes no sense.
The worst mistake a tyrant can make is to show weakness, it emboldens the pretenders. Most tyrants die of old age provided they radiate power and ruthlessness. Putin blinked by not killing Prigozhin.
The Captain
He hasnât killed him yet.
Steve
Yes. Been going over and over this. Putin didnât blink. It only appears that way to us. If he did thereâd be a whole lotta new action going on. (Ok there might be but we donât see it yet) For reasons of appearance internally and for export, (to appear to be the ânice guyâ and the âbig personâ and ânot a murdererâ) Putin is holding off and has maybe even sold Prigozhin on the idea of going to Belarus to be supervised by the Putin buddy there. But Prigozhin knows he has been had by his âthings.â (Abe Vigoda at the end of The Godfather, since the Mob Boss power grab metaphor has already been used) In the next weeks/months he will die in a traffic accident.
An additional possible factor: Putin might believe he really needs The Wagner Group at least for the here-and-now and cannot afford to simply dispense with them. He needs some time to re-organize it, take direct control of it, or phase it out somehow.
Actually, I think it does. Prigozhin knew he bit off more than he could chew. Prigozhin was probably looking for an out and Putin handed him a temporary one.
Not a good look for a Russian leader who has groomed an image of himself riding shirtless on horseback and playing hockey better than the pros. Of course the hockey pros played like their lives depended on it, which they did.
Hiding in a Kremlin bunker or hightailing it to St. Petersburg wasnât a great look either. Putin looks pudgy, but a cornered rat is a dangerous one.
Also, as inept as the Russian army is, I wouldnât want to fight them on home Moscow turf, even in the summer. It would be a bloodbath on both sides. Just ask the French and Germans.
Oh, and we have 25,000 armed and battle-tested Wagner criminals on the lose.
This issue has not been resolved. Stay tuned.
Right!
The Captain
20 19 18 17âŚ
Putin maintains power by carefully riding the back of the tiger made up of powerful Russian oligarchs. Prigozhin is the most powerful one as he has his own army.
I donât believe it was coincidental that the Wagner group was made the primary offensive force in the meatgrinder battle for Bakhmut.
What weakens Wagner strengthens Putin and the Russian army. I assume Prigozhin thought the taking of Bakhmut would enhance his influence and stature. The result was a Pyrrhic victory and loss of tens of thousands of Wagner troops.
Wiley Putin outplayed Prigozhin. Prigozhin knows Putin has it in for him so his move toward Russia was a roll of the dice hoping for a collapse within Russia. Didnât happen so he is a goner. âWhen you strike at the king, you must kill him.â
Ran across this Timeline of the Russian mercenary revolt.
One interesting supposed factoid.
Russian military helicopters open fire on a convoy of rebel mercenaries already more than halfway towards Moscow in a lightning advance after seizing Rostov overnight.
Putin is confronting the military not Prigohzin. Prigohzin threw a fake as is known in American football.
We do not know what is going on but US intelligence does. The press in some quarters does. The issue is keeping US hands out of the pie until Russians decide somethings.
Putin is under fire to come if anything by the Russian military. Just a matter of which camp wins.
Prigozhin is a bit player.
Your confidence in US intelligence community vastly surpasses mine. And likely what information that passes from that community to us ainât likely the truth. IMO
A very well informed and smart former NATO commander, 4 star general Breedlove, on the Russian situation is very worth a listen
david fb
Ukrainian forces have started to cross the Dnieper toward Kherson.
The coup attempt can better be understood as a military insurrection.
Russiaâs military effort has been all but crushed by these recent developments - Theyâve lost Wagner, and likely the support of both the ultra-nationalists and the moderates who together formed Prigozhinâs brief coalition.
The questions areâŚ
Is Putin conducting a purge of some top brass in the military?
Are elite units dispatched by the military going to kill Putin in St. Petersburg? Did some of the top brass dispatch any elite units?
That is the stand off. There is no other way for the parties to act right now.
The Prigozhin sideshow gave Putin some time. I have to wonder if Prigozhin was being targeted by the military. Breedlove discussing Prigozhin is interesting. Prigozhin is insightful but wild. Things are fraying in Russia because of the lines of bull by Putin. That does not mean Prigozhin has changed sides.
The elections in Russia will be called off. Or only one vote will be counted.
The only thing that must happen is Putinâs death. The reason is little men in power can not do this to other countries. He must be killed. I am not talking western nations going to war. I am talking any dictatorship of significant size the dictator making such a decision must die. This should be a warning to any of them including Xi in particular. His small brained behind is worthless as well.
âItâs not the people who vote that count, itâs the people who count the votes.â
Old Russian Proverb (although some attribute it to the Klingons)
We will be cutting this offâŚ
Who finances Wagner group?
Surprising Fact. Victoria Nuland, the U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, told Congress earlier this year gold mining in countries like the Central African Republic and Mali âdirectly funds the combat that [the Wagner group fighters] are engaged in in Ukraine.â7 hours ago
Remember how CeauČescu ended up? Very much like Mussolini.
Steve
In 1917, the Russian army joined the rebel forces and workers.
The volatile situation in Russia reached its climax with the October Revolution, which was a Bolshevik armed insurrection by workers and soldiers in Petrograd that successfully overthrew the Provisional Government, transferring all its authority to the Bolsheviks.
He did not see that the Russian army would join his rebellion.