Yes one does look at how Trump was able to steal military secrets and denigrate the US intelligence community.
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This is not a reply to
anyone in particular.
I read the whole thread and am as confused as everyone else.
Suppose nobody is lying.
Supposed Wagner group was attacked by the Russian army, as the Wagner boss said.
Suppose the Wagner group was really angry not at Putin but at the leadership of the Russian Army.
Suppose that the Wagner Group got what it wanted, justice for the attack.
Suppose that Putin remained above the fray and simply separated Wagner from the Russian Army my sending Wagner to Belarus. Much like sending two squabbling children to oposite corners to cool off.
This makes a lot of sense strategically. You get to keep the Wagner force and you
get to see the Russian Army stand or fall on its on. Also, although the path from Belarus to Kiev is not a great one, having Wagner that close to Kiev can make Ukraine pull some troops back from the Eastern Front.
What is more Wagner might MIGHT, be able to invade from the north without bringing Belarus into the conflict.
In general it looks like Putin simply separated squabbling kids and as Wagner was not in the battle it was no big
loss.
Cheers
Qazulight
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From what I have seen thus far, this is unclear. The Wagner soldiers have a contract with the Wagner Group, not the Russian Army. What I heard shortly after Prigozhin stopped was that the Wagner soldiers with him would not be charged, but it was not clear what would happen to them. Wagner soldiers still in Ukraine would be offered contracts with the Russian Army. But, I have not seen confirmation of this. I would imagine this is tricky since many of the Wagner soldiers are released from prison to fight,
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I was thinking more of when CIA director told Bush WMDs in Iraq were a âslam dunkâ.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Chronicles/tracey.pdf
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It is becoming clearer (to me anyway) that this was an attempt to eliminate Shoigu and Gerasamov, not Putin.
All dictators need the support of their underlings to remain in power. That support is maintained by carrots and sticks, and the closer you get to the dictator the bigger the carrots. Shoigu and Gerasamov have some plumb jobs and have become personally very wealthy. Prigozhin also has some plum jobs, but not on their level.
Earlier this month the Russian MOD announced Wagner fighters would be incorporated into the regular military. This is obviously taking a carrot away from Prigozhin, who has long been critical of the MOD, but never of Putin personally. Prigozhin was backed into a corner and needed to go on the offensive.
I think Priogzhin was willing to have a straight up shooting fight with Shoigu and Gerasamovâs troops, and I think there is a chance he might have won. By all accounts, Wagner troops were welcomed in Rostov (met with cheers and gifts) and captured the MOD HQ without a firing a shot. It appears that the public, and even some regular Russian soldiers, viewed Shoigu and Gerasamov as the corrupt buffoons they are and were on board with Priogzhinâs attempts to take out the trash.
That sent a powerful message, but Priogzhin still needed Putinâs sign off (and very possibly some sign off from regular military commanders), which he never got. But Priogzhin still had enough cards that he was able to negotiate escape without being captured and killed.
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That was a Bush Admin ploy to justify the invasion of Iraq. Intelligence community was told to shutup about any disagreements with the Bush Admin policy on WMD.
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So it was a case of the CIA director Tenet cozying up to the president by providing "Intelligence he want wanted. Got it.
Kinda like the claim by former intelligence officials that the Hunter Biden laptop story was Russian misinformation operation?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/hunter-biden-story-russian-disinfo-430276
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Bill Barr had that laptop for how long? And didnât see fit to raise charges under the prior administration? And now the chain of custody for that machine is how tainted?
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A nice review of the situation by Timothy Snyder
Prigozhinâs March on Moscow
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This situation is ripe for a special prosecutor.
Potential government influence of Twitter blocking/ censoring the laptop stories in October 2020.
Former CIA director Morrell aid to the Biden campaign.
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3963743-antony-blinken-and-the-made-men-of-the-biden-administration/
According to the sworn testimony of former acting CIA Director Michael Morrell, Blinken â then a high-ranking Biden campaign official â was âthe impetusâ of the false claim that the Hunter Biden laptop story was really Russian disinformation. Morrell then organized dozens of ex-national security officials to sign the letter claiming that the Hunter laptop story had âall the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.â
Morrell further admitted that the Biden campaign âhelped to strategize about the public release of the statement.â
2 IRS whistleblowers claims that: âthe Justice Department waged a coverup in the tax fraud investigation of first son Hunter Biden â revealing stunning details of alleged interference and new evidence indicating President Biden was involved in his sonâs foreign dealings.â
Time to find where the truth lies.
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Which is AFTER the prior administration with Bill Barr in possession of the lap top and, it seems, found nothing worth pursuing.
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Except James Comer does not want that LOL
** House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has come out in vehement opposition to the Justice Department appointing a special counsel tasking with scrutinizing Hunter Biden.**
Now why would that be?
Oh and there would be this also. The games politicians play LOL
** Representative James Comer on Tuesday admitted again that he has no basis for his investigation into President Joe Biden.**
Andy
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Thanks for posting this. Not sure I agree with everything he says, but he has many solid points and obviously given this a lot of thought.
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It appears charges are coming after all. Notice the article mentions that Prigozhi is in a hotel without any windows. Gee, wonder why that had to be mentioned? 
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It is not that simple. Wagner does not have the ammo, fuel or men to really do battle in Moscow. He was against the army not Putin. Regardless of his lips moving.
Prigozhin has two businesses we are finding out. He is going to be good and alive for a long time to come. His business in Africa is huge. Armed men everywhere taking the loot for Russia. His own army was whittled down and disposable in Ukraine.
I think Prigozhin threw a fake while Putin got rid of a military plot. We just have not heard yet.
Remember the military bombed Prigozhinâs camp. That was possibly only aimed at taking out Prigozhin himself. That might be what set this off. We do not know of Putin was also in the crosshairs in Moscow but he moved to St Petersburg.
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Tamhas,
Thank you for the link to mostly hidden and ignored Tim Snyder. That was the most informed and deep analysis of the Wagner march on Moscow I have read. I am a big fan of his but he rarely gets printed beyond his own substack and high academic circles.
Read it folks! Here is the link again, and I believe Snyder has updated and edited it since Tamhas posted: Prigozhin's March on Moscow (corrected) - by Timothy Snyder
david fb
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Putin is less secure. Russia still is secure. We wont be doing damage in Russia. Some rogue Ukrainians yes but otherwise no.
Russia will be much more secure and prosperous potentially without Putin. That is a no brainer.
Ukraine was not underestimated. The western support of Ukraine was underestimated. Having the will to fight is hugely admirable. Having the support to fight and show some ability to win is the entire goal. I am sure there are Ukrainian men who ran for the hills. We wont ever hear about them the way we hear about Russians running from Ukraine to Finland in the dead of winter. LOL
I agree with his ideas on Prigozhin and in particular the resources in Ukraine and Africa under Wagner. Prigozhin is possibly now in Belarus to protect him from the Russian military.
The correction was the correcting of an autocorrect correction.
(PS this has been corrected to repair an autocorrection mistake in a surname. Thanks for your patience. TS 26 June 2023).
The piece is self consistent but no one knows what people really are thinking, we can only guess at it from that they consequently do. I have a problem with the use of the term âfascismâ because itâs hard to know what people mean when they say it beyond that it is something nasty. The article claims that Mussolini coined the term to represent his form of dictatorship.
It would be better if we just stuck with less burdened words like Dictatorship or Tyranny. Fascists also used innocuous words like âLeaderâ (Duce, F-u-hrer) to disguise âWarlord.â We had lots of those in LatAm called âCaudillos.â Francisco Franco called himself âCaudillo por la Gracia de Diosâ (by the Grade of God). Remember the Divine Right of Kings? Alexander the Great anointed himself God. Not much has changed.
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The apathy indicates that most Russians at this point just take for granted that they will be ruled by the gangster with the most guns, and will just go on with their daily lives regardless of who that gangster happens to be.
âGangster with the most gunsâ is another way of saying âWarlord, Duce, F-u-hrer, or Caudillo.â Most people just want to get on with their lives and they only rebel when things become untenable, the choice is limited, fight or flight.
If Wagner was so horrible, why did everyone just let it go forward?
Snyder answered his own question before he asked it, see above.
The Captain
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An error occurred: Sorry, you canât post the word âF-u-hrerâ; itâs not allowed.
I wonder why Caudillo and Duce are allowed.
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I wonder why Caudillo and Duce are allowed.
Wonât let me say it here. dang!
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Because they wonât define the loser in an argument.
DB2
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