Performance recap
- 2021: -36%
- 2022: -76% (Found Saul’s amazing board Jan 2022, started this style of investing in May 2022)
- 2023: +80%
- 2024: +104%
- 2025 through June: +52%
Current portfolio holdings:
- HIMS - 19%
- SEZL - 18%
- DCTH - 9%
- NVDA - 8%
- TARS - 8%
- CRDO - 7%
- RDDT - 7%
- ALAB - 6%
- ETON - 5%
- UPST - 5%
- CRMD - 5%
- TGTX - 3%
Portfolio is currently 100% long and has 12 positions.
This excel grid below shows my current holdings and shares how I navigated the last 12 months in my portfolio. Something that surprised me was if I walk back 12 months, I only had 1 business of the 12 that was still in my portfolio. HIMS, that’s it. That’s kinda wild. And a good 3o something stocks has churned through the portfolio over the last 12 months. Nothing to take away, just a historical perspective.
Changes this month
- New Position:
- ETON: Small niche business with potential. Took a Tier 3 position with a potential to get to Tier 2
- Sold:
- KRYS
- Poor execution though they are still quite profitable. I just don’t want to hold any businesses that is trending lower on analyst estimates and missing expectations. So I am out.
- BSEM
- The Nasdaq listing is taking too long and though BioStem announced progress on the listing application, there is just too much uncertainty in this space for me. I also am worried what will happen at the end of the year when the LCD is due to expire again. Will we see a similar drop in revenue? So for now, I am happy to see this double from the sidelines. I will reevaluate post the Nasdaq listing pop and decide if I want an re-entry.
- GAMB -
- I think GAMB will do good in the next 12 months but I do not like the lumpy analyst expectation increase and the continued underperformance of the stock. It’s also a low beta stock, so I am hoping when it finally decides to move, it’s won’t move that much
- KRYS
- Bumped:
- CRMD -
- Still building out my Tier 2 position in this business.
- DCTH -
- Due to the overall biotech sector pullback, DCTH is giving a good entry after it did quite well in earnings. I took advantage of this and added to my position
- HIMS
- The NOVO break up drop was an opportunity in my opinion. But I already have quite a bit of this stock. Hence sold some puts which expires in Aug. Not my thing, just experimental. If it plays out, will add 1% to the bottomline. Meh.
- CRMD -
- Trimmed:
- SEZL -
- Way too far, way too fast. So I took some off for my own sanity. But it is already making me look stupid. Trimming is a hard hard game.
- CRDO
- Pretty great run over the last two months. Needed capital for ETON entry and did not want to go on margin. Hence the trim.
- SEZL -
My methodology current scores: (All bars in green I own)
My holdings on my quality to valuation matrix:
My Current Tiers:
Why I own what I own:
- HIMS - 19%
- NOVO Nordisk did a nasty breakup with HIMS and that hurt the stock quite a bit. This was the end game all along. Since I am a believer, I will paint the story from HIMS perspective. This announcement tells me HIMS is eating into the bottomline of Novo a good amount. And all tech disruptors will get called out by the big boy’s lunch they are eating.
- What I do want to see from HIMS is a raise in guide next quarter. Otherwise, the high growth part might be wobbling a bit. It did not raise guide last quarter and the overhang of lawsuits and settlements, things may get murky a bit. HIMS has done nothing but beat every quarterly earnings, so I will give it the benefit of doubt and hold on as a Tier 1 position. If it just hits the numbers and does not raise, it might still be good for a Tier 2, just not a Tier 1 anymore.
- SEZL - 18%
- SEZL lived up to the earnings crush it had earlier in May. It’s been on a dream run and a lot of my outperformance this year is attributed to this stock single handedly. I trimmed a bit but will let it run. My older self would sell it all and wait for a good entry. I am glad I did not do that. There is no way to predict what SEZL has done this year. So for now just enjoying the ride.
- DCTH - 9%
- Delcath had steller earnings and went FCF+. They raised guidance by 13% and is still looking at extremely high ntm growth rate. If they can continue to get more profitable, I think this has a lot of room to run. They are at 10% FCF and has 84% margins, so there is operational efficiency room here. Delcath continued to consolidate this month. So I added a bit more to my position
- NVDA - 8%
- Nvidia finally started to run. It’s been a long wait since last September when I entered this stock. I think it is still quite cheap and can run a bit if market holds up. The base is a long one too so there is room and foundation here for NVDA to do it’s thing.
- TARS - 8%
- More consolidation this month for TARS. Nothing has changed in this story so I continue to wait for the breakout.
- CRDO -7%
- Credo crushed earnings and the raise was very impressive. It had a huge run so I trimmed it a bit. But I will re-add once this market takes a breather. Longer term I want to hold a 10% position in this one.
- RDDT - 7%
- I really liked Reddit’s earnings. The stock is starting to respond and take off. It’s all time high is still 50% higher, so there is a lot of room to keep going.
- ALAB - 6%
- ALAB had good results this quarter but I wasn’t a fan of the raise. It’s not bad but not great for a business that is riding a 30+ P/S ratio. This past month, ALAB consolidated. I really would like to see next quarter the FCF numbers start to climb again. Otherwise, this is getting expensive in my opinion from a valuation perspective.
- ETON - 5%
- As I wrote in a separate introductory thread, I like the numbers, the execution, the fact that it is still small and about to hit the S curve growth phase. Also, like that it is relatively unknown which hopefully means if it executes a higher multiple as people hear about it. High growth, profitable, descent margin - guiding higher and good analyst beat.
- UPST - 6%
- UPST had a great quarter and did a gap up to almost $90 a share. Due to march madness, it is down to half that value now. I feel Upstart has turned the corner and is starting to accelerate revenue growth. The guidance this quarter was extremely impressive as it raised yearly guide by 20%. That’s rare. So, I continue to build my position in this business.
- UPST has slowly started to turn things around. Hopefully this run continues and breaks through all time highs set earlier this year. That would be a 50% move still.
- CRMD - 5%
- This business has some stellar numbers. ntm 50%+ growth with 50%fcf this quarter. I think one or two more of these kinds of quarters and it’s multiple should double. So for now took a starter position. Added a bit more as this came in a bit. Still room to add if it falls further.
- TGTX - 3%
- TGTX got a nice haircut in this drawdown and I took advantage to get back into this business. The revenue growth and guidance game is pretty good. Just need this to get to profitability, currently struggling a bit in this respect. TGTX is on the verge of getting cut from my portfolio. The only reason I am still hesitating is because it had a great analyst beat last quarter. If it can do it again, I think the stock runs. Let’s see.
Wrapping Up
The HIMS drama caused me some heartache this month. But SEZL and CRDO more than made up for it. S&P 500 had a 5% swing and my portfolio managed a 18% move. That is way more than I expected. So pretty happy with things so far. We are at the half way mark and so far so good. Hoping the second half stays the course and we continue to grind higher in the indexes.
Always a privilege to post here. Thank you for reading. Cheers!
