Posted earlier in the week, a thread on sanctions impact on Russian crude and an item that was raised in the thread (Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting oil production thru the end of the year)
From a shipping broker’s report (Intermodal), two different issues
Changing diesel trades: Brazil opts for Russian diesel (page 1) and the knock-on effect to Brazil’s internal diesel market.
As mentioned in the earlier thread, September is usually a refinery maintenance month. That makes the impact of Russia & Saudi production cuts in Q3 more difficult to interpret. On the other hand, if the cuts remain in place, what does this mean for oil markets (& the tanker sector) in Q4 2023? (Page 2)
The rates on the three crude tanker vessel categories quoted at the bottom of page 2 are not too surprising. Again, not unusual for spot trades during most late Q3 time frames. Contrast those rates to Time charter rates listed on Page 2 show the tanker sector not immediately reacting to the production cut news. Can a tanker owner fix a vessel on a time charter rate? Modern vessel ( < 15 yo) – 2 cases occurred this week.
I read two things about Russian oil recently. One that the Russians are not sticking to the reduced numbers they agreed to (I read that they are doing ship to ship transfers at sea) and the second that the Russians are selling their oil below market prices to increase sales. I don’t know how significant that will be month over month…doc
@physician - while it could be elsewhere, both the ship-to-ship transfer news and SA & Russian reneging were both subjects on my first Russian sanctions thread
Regarding potential impacts it is multi-faceted
Producer impacts: In particular, what do non OPEC+ members do?
Effect on @ pump prices on consumers (on a personal note, with a hybrid car and larger gas tank, my gas station trips are less frequent)
Russia desperately needs cash. The Russians have to pump oil. They have to overprint their currency. There is too much pressure economically internal to the Russian war effort.
Interrupting ship-to-ship transfers at sea would greatly hamper their ability to sell oil. Breaking up those transfers would be easy for Putin to screech about–but he lacks the available ships and aircraft (and manpower) to effectively protect them in international waters.
Early on that was going on. Now if it is still going on it makes little difference. If going to independent Chinese refineries the Russians can get more money.
The Chinese and Indians along with others wont pay beyond what the Western Cartel dictates.
Getting the Chinese or Russian governments to help Russia out beyond a defined price for oil won’t happen.
