Mid-Month Changes in My Portfolio
AEHR - At the end of September I had a 20.4% position in Aehr. It was my largest position. On the 5th of October they issued quarterly results. After a lot of reading and thinking I decided it was insane of me to be carrying such a large position.
I decided to cut my position in half, then reduce my position by three quarters, then just have it as a tiny keep-it-on-the-radar position, and finally I decided to completely exit, and I sold my entire position over the last six trading days and reinvested all the money in other stocks.
I had been very enthusiastic about the company, and the earnings report was very good, so why did I change and decide to exit? I realized that very good things are PROBABLY coming in the future but that, about those good things, there is no way of knowing HOW MUCH? or WHEN? or FOR HOW LONG?
Everything was uncertainty. I didn’t even have any idea what the next quarter results would bring, and it seemed clear from the conference call that the CEO didn’t know either, and he had no idea as to when his expected customers would place orders, or how big they would be. I’m much more comfortable watching this from the sidelines, but if you decide to stay in, I wish you all the best. This company may boom and leave me in the dust, and if so, more power to it…
What did I do with the money ? Well I put a lot of it into a new 10.1% position in ELF, which has been well discussed on the board.
ELF’s yoy percent revenue growth the last six quarters has been (in percentage growth) : 13%, 26, 33, 49, 78, and 76% last quarter.
Its quarterly Adj EPS (in cents) has gone 13 cents, to 39 cents, to 36, to 48, to 42 and last quarter to $1.10.
And its Adj Gross Margin was 67% last fiscal year and 71% last quarter.
Those are the kind of numbers I can warm up to, and while there is never certainty for the future, there isn’t the kind of uncertainty I was feeling with Aehr either.
And most of the left-over money I put into a 7.7% position in Celcius (energy drinks), also well discussed on the board, which formed a distribution alliance with Pepsi Cola a little over one year ago.
Celcius’ yoy percent revenue growth the last four quarters has been (in percentage growth) : 98%, 71%, 95%, and 112% last quarter !
Sequential revenue growth was 22.1%, -5.3%, 46.1% , and 25.4% last quarter !
Adj EBITDA was (rounded off) $25 million, $13 million, $49 million, $78 million
Their gross margin last quarter was 48.8% up from 38.5% the year before.
Their Net Income last quarter was $40.9 million (apparently GAAP).
Finally a little 3.0% position again in Tesla. I decided that even if I can’t really stand their founder and CEO, I shouldn’t let that make me pass on one of the great companies of this era.
Please don’t follow me without making your own decisions. I make lots of mistakes, and I can change my mind at any time, just like I did here, but without posting it on the board until the end of the month, or perhaps not even then if I get sick or am traveling or whatever. Make your own decisions !!!