2023 - up 8.7%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%
AXON - 15.2% (14.3%)
IOT - 12.5% (13.8%)
CELH - 11.6% (11.2%)
MNDY - 10.6% (10.1%)
ELF - 9.7% (3.3%)
TTD - 9.6% (10.0%)
ZSCALER - 7.1% (4.9%)
NVDA - 7.0% (5.9%)
GLBE - 5.6% (5.1%)
TSLA - 3.0% (6.3%)
RELY - 1.5% (NEW)
AEHR - SOLD
Watchlist - CRWD, SNOW
Summary: Another brutal month. Not a lot of changes from my mid-month update. I used the recent price dip in Elf to add some more to the position, I cut Tesla in half, and started a small position in Remitly. I sold out of my small position in Aehr yesterday, the story is just too murky (ie the timing of new orders, etc) and the company too small for my taste.
AXON - 15.2% - Hopefully they will provide a good timeline of product updates and continued outperformance in software. Axon Cloud is now nearly the company’s biggest segment as its revenue grew 62.4%. Digital evidence continues to be the primary driver for growth in the high-margin software business. Net revenue retention increased 122% in the quarter.
IOT - 12.5% - I cut a little, this is a really expensive stock but the hard ROI is perfect for these times.
CELH - 11.6% - Based on recent market surveys and research, as well as positive news from PepsiCo in their earnings call, I’m expecting a large beat.
MNDY - 10.6% - The conflict in Israel is beating this stock down but the numbers don’t lie. Check out Bert’s new article on Monday:
ELF - 9.7% - The large price drop allowed me to add a bunch of shares at around $91/share. Advertising in make-up and a quick time to market might not be huge Moats but I’m hoping for the best for today’s earnings call. Also, history shows that make-up purchases actually go up during recessions - it’s a small luxury, I guess.
TTD - 9.6% - Meta and Google reported better than expected results this week, which is a good sign that the ad market might be starting to recover. On the last call, Jeff Green stated “Our relative outperformance over the last few quarters means we have gained more market share than in any other period in our company’s history .”
ZSCALER - 7.1% - Zscaler reported that the number of attacks on IoT devices represents a 400% increase in malware compared to the previous year. Combined with the cyberattack at MGM and the trouble in the Middle East and Ukraine - the need for more cybersecurity is being highlighted. Consulting firm PwC surveyed 4,410 CEOs in early 2023, and 25% of them said their business will be either “highly” or “extremely” exposed to cyber risks over the next five years. Additionally, when they were asked how they planned to navigate geopolitical risks, the top answer was to invest more money in cybersecurity.
NVDA - 7.0% - I’ll be listening closely on the earnings call about the new China restrictions, which should not affect the revenue in the short-term. I expect there to be a lot of questions from analysts about it.
GLBE - 5.1% - I’m hoping to get more concrete info on the Shopify White Label deal in the next earnings call.
TSLA - 3.0% - The domination continues as the majority of car buyers want an EV, although they will likely delay. Adoption is inevitable and Tesla is murdering everyone akin to Netflix vs Blockbuster. BYD, the only company that has scaled, has tiny margins, no FSD, no superchargers, etc. US car makers are pushing out their timelines. That being said, I cut my position in half after earnings. I hope to add again when interest rates start to come down. I have total conviction in the company long-term, but things look tough in the short to medium term.
RELY - 1.5% - I’m just getting to know the company, but the numbers look good, and I think they can do ok, even in a tough Macro environment.