Saul’s Portfolio at the end of June.
I’m sorry but I fell and broke my arm a couple of weeks ago and required major surgery with the insertion of a titanium plaque to hold the pieces of bone back together. I’m still in quite a bit of pain and discomfort and not in shape for producing a full end of the month report, so this one will be very abbreviated.
MY RESULTS MONTH BY MONTH FOR 2023
Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2023. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there:
End of Dec 100.0% starting point End of Jan 109.7% End of Feb 107.0% End of Mar 105.8% End of Apr 91.9% End of May 106.3% End of Jun 119.0%
In April two of my largest positions at the time, Enphase and Cloudflare, each dropped 25% after earnings (Cloudflare’s drop deserved, Enphase’s much less so, in my opinion), which explains my portfolio’s 13% drop in April.
You’ll also note its nice bounce back in May with a 16% rise in one month [106.3/91.9 = 1.16]. For comparison, the S&P rose a little less than 1% in May.
This was followed by another 12.3% rise in June to up 19.0%, for a 29.5% rise for the two months of May and June. (There are numerous others on the board who have done even better than me). During the two months, while my portfolio was rising 29.5%, the S&P rose 6.7%. That sure was a better comparison than the horrible ones I lived through in 2022.
Here’s what my postions looked like a month ago (end of May).
Monday 14.9% Sentinel 12.5% Global-e 11.8% The Trade Desk 11.2% Samsara 11.0% Bill 11.0% Aehr Testing 10.6% Enphase 9.7% Zscaler 7.4%
And here’s what they look like now:
Samsara 17.0% Aehr Testing 15.5% Monday 15.0% Global-e 13.5% The Trade Desk 11.9% Enphase 9.6% Bill 8.5% Tesla 5.4% Snowflake 2.2% Zscaler 0.5%
Out of the nine positions that I had at the end of May I have only closed Sentinel. I did reduce Zscaler a great deal, added a small position in Tesla, and added back an even smaller one in Snowflake. All in all, a relatively calm month as far as portfolio adjustments.
I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same.
I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, but living through this decline has been difficult.
Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.
When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.
I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I later do decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.
You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.
Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.
Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading (a couple of times) if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.
I hope this has been helpful.