Who knows what happens tomorrow or next week, but the fact the Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft are getting regulatory scrutiny is going to be a good thing for many of our companies that are much much smaller and focused on one or two key markets.
I can’t talk company names due to trade restrictions (and I’ve been buying lately), but you could probably guess which of our companies stand to benefit most from this.
So then lets think about P/S ratios… many of our companies are “overvalued”.
What happens when/if those 4-5 massive companies begin to lose market share in categories such as advertising, analytics, team collaboration, video communication, databases, contact centers, search, etc?
I think some of our much smaller companies will be beneficiaries of that.
Again, who knows what happens over the short term, but over 2-5 years, I think there’s a chance for Total Addressable Markets to grow, revenue growth rates to increase, and new products to be released.
I’m fully invested and trying to increase my savings rate as we appear to be in the middle of some type of sell-off. Focusing on staying invested in the absolute best companies I can find.
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I really liked your analysis on this CMFALieberman. I was focused more on the impact on advertising but you rightly point out the other areas that could be impacted. However, this process could take possibly several years. MSFT took ~ 10 years. I do know that many companies have been interviewed by DOJ and they are complaining about monopolistic practices of these big 4 so something serious is most likely going to happen to attempt to break them up. I do know they are going after Google 1st and my betting is that they are going to focus on the advertising so perhaps 3rd party/programmatic (TTD) advertisers could get relief sooner than the other areas. That would be very nice for my largest position. I only own one of the big 4 mentioned - AMZN. I do think I will stick with it as I think they can fend off the regulators because I don’t think they are the only player in any of their businesses - true they have over 50% in online retail but not sure this will be a problem.
I think TWLO my 3rd largest position will not be impacted but many of my other positions should benefit if there was some restructuring/breaking-up but will probably take some time.
Thanks again,
Cheers,
VT
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Wonder if this is what has TTD moving today
That isnt new news…feom 5/31.
I am sure it jas mostly to do with existing ad revenue giants being under regulatory scrutiny.
TTD was also down the least of Saul stocks yesterday…likely for same reason.
Dreamer
That article is from Friday, though, so I don’t see it being a big part of today’s upward move by $TTD.
Although MTCH doesn’t seem to be widely held around here, any reduction in the price of rent on the Apple App store would be a huge win for them.
