Semi OT-AAPL

Added a bit to an oversized AAPL position today @138 after its recent 25% haircut the last couple months. I suspect WEB and very likely Tim are buying for us all as well. Anyone else adding here?

Based on what?

Thesis given concern on smartphone massive slowdown?

I was just informed by an Apple tech that come the fall our 7 and 7 plus iPhones will no longer be able to receive updates. Both are working perfectly now but, without update capability, we would consider getting whatever new iPhones become available in the fall. As others will be in the same predicament, I assume that Iphone orders will swell for that reason alone.

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Both are working perfectly now but, without update capability, we would consider getting whatever new iPhones

Why?
A question which probably sounds like a joke for nearly all of you but it’s not.

It’s a serious question from someone who retired his 2012 Samsung Galaxy Ace 2 (Android 4) only because in 2019 the European Union demanded by law 2-Factor-Authentification for online transactions and my German banks forced me to use for that Apps which required at least Android 5. Otherwise I would still use it.

So in 2019 I replaced it with a used Sony from 2015 which I will still use in the next century - if not my banks Apps then will require a later version than it’s Android 6.

The current Android version is 12 but I have no idea why I should “need” it (my partner several times upgraded her iPhone because of “better camera” but as I use a REAL camera instead of a childrens toy this is no point for me; and also not all of that “you have to … because of security updates”).

So it’s really meant as a serious question: Why?

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The why? Is kind of a joke.
Not much different than asking someone who smokes Marlboro cigarettes why they are buying another pack.
The only difference is that the Apple I phone replacement cycle will lengthen during bad economic times but the addiction seems stronger than ever for most people but clearly not you.
Apple stock just like Brk will deliver satisfactory returns from here over the next 10 years but both could do anything over the next 2-3 years.
Cheers,

Brian

Why?

Here’s 3 reasons off-hand (based on US ownership of iPhones):

  1. You are not representative.
  2. Roughly 50% of people use iPhones.
  3. According to this fall 2021 study of teens, 87% use iPhones.

https://piper2.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/3bad99c6-e44a-4424-8f…

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Sure I am not representative as I don’t see reasons for upgrading but the whole world does.

But contrary to you saying “here are 3 reasons” you also don’t give any reasons, just say that many/most people in the US use iPhones.

Both are working perfectly now but, without update capability, we would consider getting whatever new iPhones

So it’s really meant as a serious question: Why?

One solid reason:
Without ongoing OS updates, you lose functionality (and security) over time.
Like going bankrupt: first gradually, then suddenly.
New features/apps become unavailable as they don’t support your OS, specific capabilities stop working, apps stop even loading one by one, then one day something mandatory won’t run.
If/when a piece of hardware becomes old enough that the new updates are no longer available,
it’s only a matter of time before you have to abandon it, even if the hardware is still good.
https://xkcd.com/2224/

I don’t have a smart phone, but I observe those who do.
They don’t observe me back, of course, as they’re looking at their phones : )
My fun game on the sidewalk is NOT dodging out of the way of the clueless smart phone users about to walk into me.
The looks on their faces are priceless…I should start photographing them.
It’s amazing at how many get mad a me for that, with probability apparently inversely proportional to their ages.
It’s fun being an old crank.

Jim

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Both are working perfectly now but, without update capability, we would consider getting whatever new iPhones

So it’s really meant as a serious question: Why?

I don’t comment on buying or selling stocks, but I can comment on this. I work remotely and travel a fair amount, even now. My phone is my primary device for communications, banking, news, and entertainment. I pay with it. My documents, mail, contacts, calendar, services, etc. are in the cloud. Personally, I don’t watch many videos or do social media but many people do. I currently have an iPhone XR that is only 3 years old and works fine…but. It is slow, the older wifi and 4G connections are less speedy and reliable than newer ones, security (including password management and encryption) is a bit clumsier than with newer models, etc, etc. I have to reboot it more often than I should, sometimes when it is not convenient. I could use more memory. So I will get a new iPhone when it comes available with Wifi 6E, which is the next one. Same reason I will probably buy a new laptop this year even though my 2-year old model is “fine.”

My phone is a tool. I use it all the time. Hell, I am totally dependent on it. So I need the best tool I can get. Period. In this case, the newer model offers me practical advantages over the one I have. Plus, my daughters like that they get to pick the color for me because I could not care less. I’ll just trade in or sell my old one, pay the difference, and never think about it again. Until the next ones come out when I’ll decide if an upgrade is worth it.

BTW, My toaster is 10 years old and I hope I never have to replace it. I haven’t bought a new car in 20 years. Newer is not always better. Better is better.

P.S. Thanks to all of you whose wisdom I absorb every day on this board. I haven’t figured out who “Saul” is yet, but I don’t think I care.

abromber (holding BRK since 1986)

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(based on US ownership of iPhones):

1. You are not representative.
2. Roughly 50% of people use iPhones.
3. According to this fall 2021 study of teens, 87% use iPhones.

For perspective: worldwide phone market share:

Samsung 23%
Apple 18%
Xiaomi 13%
OPPO 9%
Vivo 8%
Others 29%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/271496/global-market-sha…

Another way of saying this is that iOS has 18% market share, Android has 82%. That is by unit sales, in Q1 2022; by operating system use, Apple does a bit better, at 28%, presumably because Apple phones last longer. https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/mobile/worldwide

It’s true that Apple has about 50% of phones sales in the USA, but that is not at all true in the rest of the world, where Apple gets 60% of its revenue. So in fact said’s reality (in Europe) IS just as representative of what’s happening in Apple’s customer base, if not more so.