Good article. Thatās how I view our Berkshire - itās our core holding in place of something like an S&P500 index fund. Itās been somewhat better than the index, I think, though itād take a lot of work to verify that, and Iām not concerned enough to do it. Itās a great holding in taxable. Most of our taxable investment is in Berkshire.
1 Like
What year are you talking?
Interesting thread, and good 10 lessons learned, Blackswan.
I also took a beating on BABA and a few other stocks over the last couple years, but have a few stocks that did well to mostly offset. Down about 11% since I began buying back into stocks in early 2021.
I definitely feel a bit dumb with 20/20 hindsight over how I handled things since the pandemic broke: dodged a lot of the initial fall, but then basically missed on the raging bull from the Covid low to the late 2021 high. If Iād just stuck with my pre-Covid plan of a globally diversified mix of index funds somewhat emphasizing small and value, with some BRK as a quasi value index and a fair chunk of short term bonds because of over-valuation concerns with the stock markets, Iād have done much better.
Most of my assets continue to be in residential real estate between my own home and a number of rentals. Those have done fabulously, so net net Iām doing well.
My BABA is down 63%, right about the same as my UPST, and I have a number of smaller losers, some down pretty significantly as well. BRK and MRNA doing well, but the star of my 2021 picks is BELFB: Bel Fuse, a small cap manufacturer of power-oriented smart connectors that I discovered in the AAII Shadow Stock portfolio ideas. I liked their conservative management, their positioning in an important industry, and they were still making money despite being beat down by the supply chain issues. Iām not touting the stock at the moment, itās run a long way and I donāt know what itās future holds if the economy drops, but it seems like a good company and trailing PE is just 9.3.
I think the comparison of recent trends to the nifty fifty era or the 2000 era are both somewhat apt, though who knows, maybe the Fed manages a soft landing and the worst of it is behind us? Or the economy could go south and the stock market grind down another 30%.
Nose-bleed valuations of the S&P 500 kept me out of that index when I came back into the market. I tried to do better with a value tilt, but without my mostly-lucky pick of Bel Fuse, Iād be doing worse than the index. As is Iām about the even with it, maybe slightly ahead with dividends, remarkable considering the brutal misses with sizable investments in BABA and UPST.
The news out of China is somewhat disturbing, with Xi consolidating power. I recently met someone from China who moved from Shanghai this year to escape the prospect of more Covid lockdowns and Xiās moves towards a more autocratic hold on the government. Itās all rattled my long term conviction about BABA, but Iām still holding.
6 Likes
1 Like
Heck if thatās all it takes, Iāll wager everyone on this board is a genius.
5 Likes
Hi, many of these names are smarter than me, just sayin. Crypto investors still rattled by FTX liquidity issue (cnbc.com)
I hope you watched Anthony aka, the mootch, interviewed on cnbc this morning. Many experienced old timers got, bamboozled.
1 Like
Painful for so many whales and minnows. Heard the great Bill Miller had 40% of his wealth in Bitcoin as well. Always like Bull and his perspectives but just never felt crypto was in my circle, thank goodness!
6 Likes