Bear's Portfolio through 09/2024

In 2021-2022, from peak to trough I lost 60% of my portfolio…and not through doing “dumb” things like using margin, but because so many stocks dropped by 60%+. I know people who lost 80% and even 90% in the same down-turn, and I don’t doubt that there are some people in the world who due to leverage or some other underestimated risk, lost 100%. I share all this to say, please be careful out there with your life’s savings…try to understand what risks you’re taking. I would start by asking yourself: “How much volatility is acceptable?”

However, I’m realizing…When I first started posting monthly portfolio reviews, I got a lot of feedback and advice, and it was well meaning and maybe wise, but I still had to make my own mistakes and learn this craft myself. And I’m still learning, and I’m still getting feedback, and for the most part I’m still learning things the hard way. If there’s one thing I’ve done right, it’s not copying anybody. And doing these reviews has helped a ton.

In September I thought I would try something. Trading Amazon (trimming and adding opportunistically) has gone really well, so I thought I’d try the same with MSFT and GOOG, which both happened to be down earlier in the month.

I got rid of the index fund. I think trading AMZN and MSFT and GOOG is just more my style.

I cut Axon and Peloton and MercadoLibre to remove the clutter. I’d be willing to get back in at some point if they drop, maybe.

I added a little to TMDX and NU, which were down. And I added back a tiny ZS position since it was down so much.

I added new try-out positions in Root and in Castle Bio.

But Robinhood and Reddit are my biggest new positions, because I see a lot more upside than downside. I haven’t really discussed them on the board much, but maybe I will in the future.

Apology

As I said, my monthly reviews helped me figure out stock-picking over the years, but now I find I don’t have the enthusiasm to do them anymore. I’m not quitting yet, but I’m considering it. The September summary above is not worthy of this board. Look to other posters, or my older posts, as a better example. But mostly, write up your own thoughts on the companies you own, and figure all this out yourself. That’s what has worked for me, anyway.

Happy October, everybody!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community

Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022

Dec 2023 (contains links to all 2023 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2023

Jan 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2024

Feb 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2024

Mar 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2024

Apr 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 04/2024

May 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 05/2024

Jun 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 06/2024

Jul 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 07/2024

Aug 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 08/2024

68 Likes

Definitely interested and surprised by the Reddit position. I showed up on my radar last week, but I hadn’t followed up. Count me as interested in your thoughts.

11 Likes

Bear,
You have added immensely to my thought process. I don’t think you need to apologize for anything.
Vince

23 Likes

Hi Bear, that reminds me of my experience trading Amazon. I sold out of Amazon (I think in late 2016) when the price had gone up, up, UP, to an amazing $900. ($45 after the 20 for 1 split in 2022). It’s now at $185, more than quadrupling after my exit. So much for selling because something has gone up, and because the CEO didn’t seem interested at the time in making a profit.

I cut Axon and… to remove the clutter.

Wow, you consider AXON to be “clutter.” It’s my largest position and it just keeps going up, up, and up, slow and steady

I thought that my lack of energy for doing them was old age, but you are a youngster. :rofl: :rofl:

Best,

Saul

39 Likes

I had bought at $500, so my $900 sale was up 80% in a reasonably short time. Any “sensible” trader might have sold.

As the $500 is equivalent to $25 after the 20-for-1 split, and it’s now at $185, it would be more than a septuple if I had just held on and sat on it. So much for “sensible trader”.

Saul

30 Likes

Yeah, definitely a lesson learned about management that is investing profits back into the business to grow it even more.

18 Likes