Sold MELI - Rolling Funds Into SMCI

Bought MELI in two purchases on 4/24 and 3/12 for an average price per share of $1497. Sold today at $1684 per share for a 4-6 wk gain of 12.49%.

Rolling funds into SMCI.

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I hope you make a killing!

Disclosure: SMCI is my #2 position. lol

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Thanks Rob.

We’ll see. My goodness, your confidence in it as your number 2 position is very encouraging and I know where to go if I need to borrow some money.

All the Best,

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Rob, you bought unde 100$, is that right?

This is what I call A KILLING!

It’s a little more complicated than that, so I’ll bore you with some details.

I initially was buying around $75 but I was in and out. I haven’t recorded the whole history, but the bottom line is that I’ve done well… but could have done a LOT better if I had more conviction and more PATIENCE.

I ended up buying January 2025 $150 calls (near/at the money) and additional ones as the share price went up AND as I understood how well the company was doing.

I’m up more than 10x on some positions over the last year and it’s helped bring me close to a 300% total portfolio gain YTD. Plus gains with other companies such as NVDA.

I have continued to have some ambivalence regarding SMCI. I’m not sure what an appropriate PE should be. But I’m pretty confident their growth will continue for at least several years… and that there are no sizable competitors able to compete with them on agility, willingness to meet customer needs… and low costs. Yeah, they have low margins and they sometimes need to raise money periodically to fund the growth. I view these “issues” as entirely predictable and they don’t bother me in the least… I view the situation as just part of the competitive “game” that enables their success.

The key aspect to the strategy? >>> Ruthlessness.

Sound brutal? I agree, it’s brutal. But it’s sure effective!

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Addendum:

I interacted with another person at the Fool who wanted to analyze/predict how well SMCI could grow… based on the capability of expansion of their SUPPLIERS. I said I thought it was a waste of time because… while it’s a good idea by itself… the discussion would revolve around stuff we couldn’t answer. He’s still angry with me.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Come on Rob. Your early entry into SMCI was a power move by Michael Jordan - A Hat Trick in the Stanley by Wayne Gretzky - It was Nick Saban rolling with the Tide. (OK…Ok…maybe a little stretch there - but not by much.)

Note 1: Points deducted for: " I initially was buying around $75 but I was in and out. I haven’t recorded the whole history, but the bottom line is that I’ve done well… but could have done a LOT better if I had more conviction and more PATIENCE. "

Note 2: If you figure out the whole patience thingy please put me on the list as a potential benefactor.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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blush

… and it was a nice day to own SMCI. Up more than 15%.

Just a heads up. Maybe this is too early. Maybe it won’t work out. But there is a little battery maker getting positive buzz from Jeff Lutz, a supply chain guy who does a LOT of interviews regarding Tesla. I bought a small position in the battery maker (EOSE). They are getting grants from the Department of Energy to get their manufacturing system going with zinc batteries. https://twitter.com/thejefflutz/status/1790478910880203034

I could very well be wrong, but if you’re VERY patient, EOSE could do fairly well over the next few years. I only have about 0.5% in this penny stock, but… we’ll see. The financials look disastrous but it’s better than it seems, given grants on the way as they prove out their system. They’re expecting to be making some money later this year.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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ROB:

EOSE - is that like that other fledgling battery company that the guy who “discovered” Enphase is high on? If they are different - then how?

However - what Folks really want to know Rob is this: If SMCI is your #2 position - what is your top choice for the season?

All the Best,

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That is ENVX, Enovix. TJ Rogers holds about 22.5M shares

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My NVDA position is nearly twice that of SMCI. All calls:

Jan25 490

Jan26 480
Jan26 490
Jan26 700
Jan26 720
Jan26 880

I usually buy at or just under the money, so that gives you some perspective. Obviously, the 880s are not making much money yet, but … they will.

The Jan25 NVDA calls: I plan to sell (close) them in December… and use part of the proceeds to pay off our motorhome. Those calls are in a taxable account and will be long term capital gains. The rest of the money will probably be a 2025 spending money reserve AND some money to be re-invested in something or other. No decision on the re-investment target yet. Might be TSLA, might be NVDA or SMCI.

Note: Our SMCI position is all Jan25 calls too. That’ll be re-invested. Quite possibly all in SMCI again Maybe a mix of calls and shares.

Where do I see share prices going? Hahaha… that’s REALLY hard to guess! But I’m guessing NVDA and SMCI are going to be near $1500 by end of year 2024. Tesla is a real wild card that COULD do tremendously well later this year and into 2025 and beyond. Maybe. Just have to see!

Other significant stuff in the portfolio is CELH and APP… Those two are doing well. A small position in EOSE and a super small position in PGY. And another real tiny position in ARBE. The small positions all have losses… all 3 digit losses or less.

We’ll also be paying off our 2.75% mortgage this year. We’ll have finished three and a half years of the ten year mortgage. Why pay it off? Short mortgage, high payments. That 96% portfolio loss put us in a position where we thought we’d have to sell the house (and the motorhome), mostly due to cash flow issues. We’ll pay off the loans… NOT because it is necessarily the best financial decision… but to reduce our monthly cash requirements for peace of mind. I haven’t analyzed things to see if we’ll be giving up our itemized deduction approach on Federal taxes by paying off these loans. Might happen, but I doubt it. We’ll see.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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The peace of mind, the financial freedom and mental serenity of living debt free is a milestone blessing that cannot be imagined without being achieved and experienced.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Hi jdc115:

Thats the one - thanks for the reminder.

Last I was semi following events, ENVX was building a factory that was supposed to initiate production this year. Have I got that right?

All the Best,
BDH Investing

They have complete FAT and have started to send samples of 1st generation product for cell phones but qualification is estimated to be 9 to 12 months so likely somewhere in the later half of 2025 before they would start producing any meaniful revenue… assuming they get customers. The second generation product should be available by end of the year for vendors to start qualifying. So there is still a while to wait

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Not sure what FAT is but it sounds mission critical. Does EOSE have FAT? Just curious and I suppose I’ll have to rustle up some inquisitive energy and go do the dang research now that ROB has chunked a rock in the investment pond and the ripples are interesting.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

“ A FAT or Factory Acceptance Test is usually performed at the vendor prior to shipping to a client. The vendor tests the system in accordance with the client’s approved test plans and specifications to show that the system is at a point to be installed and tested on site.”

I don’t think EOSE has completed FAT and it might be one of the criteria’s needed before they will get the DOE lone. I have close to zero trust in EOSE’s management so will never touch them no matter how compelling the story… which I am not sure is very compelling.

ENVX has me very skeptical as too much a cult following when they have not developed any product at scale and their story never quite delivers on what most understand. But I know… those that follow very closely just say you hadn’t been following close enough.

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Morning jdc115:

Thanks for educating me on FAT.

I have the same basic view of ENVX as it always seem to be moving the goal posts. I have no idea about the mgmt of EOSE but its always good to remember that a confused mind says no. Having said that - surely ROB has his reasons for being involved in the company.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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NVDA: Still doing as expected. Beat revenue, beat earnings, raising dividend, 10:1 split. Up after hours.

SMCI: Stock up after hours also. For some reason, some folks need/needed re-assurance, I guess.

I suppose I’ll update my spreadsheet portfolio status at the end of this month so I can see the balances and allocations. Haven’t done so for a while because market nervousness/silliness drove down some prices but it was obvious those prices would come back and be exceeded.

In my “silly of sillies” (ie, fond investing fantasies)… it may still be possible to end the year up 500%+. It’s somewhere over 300% now, despite regular withdrawals to keep the lights on and pay for incidentals like food. :wink:

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Awesomeness on display.

Well Done Rob!

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