Schwab sends me free Morningstar analyst reviews on each of my stocks as they come out. These aren’t like the usual analyst valuations which are almost always way above the current stock price. Oh No! They always say “The Company (whichever it is) is doing great. The earnings report is great. We love it. But the stock is overvalued (or “greatly overvalued”) so we can’t recommend it.”
The latest one on Snowflake amazed me. After years of getting these reports I finally got one that said that the stock was greatly undervalued and a bargain (Fair Value Estimation was $295 and price was $224). I don’t remember ever seeing that on one of my Morningstar reports before that said the stock was actually significantly below the fair value.
Give it whatever importance you like. Just a bit of information.
Thanks for sharing this, but isn’t this kind of cherry picking? I see board members criticized for mentioning price targets when it’s an uninspiring number, but since this one looks good it’s worth sharing?
Bit concerned about the trend of confirmation bias, group think, and cherry picking I’ve seen on the board throughout this drawdown. Have great appreciation for the board and everything you share, but sometimes things feel a bit contradictory and confusing.
tier88
I’m not sure what “cherry picking” you are talking about but I personally see Saul’s post as completely legitimate.
We have a lot of board newcomers that are not following the basic tenets of investing in this board.
Why? Well, the board is becoming a lot more short sighted than it used to be. Part of this is because we are not in a friendly investment environment at the moment and it seems to me that people are starting to “freak out”.
For ex. I’ve seen people posting that they sold Snowflake at the low after hours the other day. After posting 101% y/y growth!
Everyone is welcome on this board but its not a beginner investing board.
So if you are a beginner (less than 5 years experience), please feel free to read and make your own investing decisions;
But please don’t come on here and take potshots at the Creator of the board.
Someone who has been incredibly gracious to share his process with us for many years.
He doesn’t need to help anybody. Its not a paid board.
Since the board has become a lot more short sighted with all the newcomers; I see Saul’s recent posts trying to help them.
There’s nothing off topic for Saul to write and add updates about our stocks.
Another thing I think is being lost in the mix here is that Saul (as humble as he is)
Is not a normal investor. He’s unbelievable!
Its like having our own personal Peter Lynch.
The problem is this though, if you look at the investing results of any great investor and then look at the investor return (the followers) it is usually abysmal. Why? They sell at the bottom and buy at the top.
That is another reason why John Bogle argues for index fund investing.
I don’t know if Saul will continue to be great as no-one knows the future, but its hard to stomach people coming on here and posting things to criticize Saul as if he is just another board member / poster He is far from that.
Let’s just all assume that price targets by analysts don’t mean anything. I think even if Saul were to re-read the start of this thread down the road, he’d grudgingly admit by his standards the thread should be removed.
Let’s get back to talking about the companies in my portfolio that have reduced my investment portfolio now 46% since November 11th, please.
Read these lines from Saul’s post again, bolding are mine.
"After years of getting these reports I finally got one that said that the stock was greatly undervalued and a bargain (Fair Value Estimation was $295 and price was $224). I don’t remember ever seeing that on one of my Morningstar reports before that said the stock was actually significantly below the fair value."
Even if you look at all the other analyst ratings that have come out since yesterday, most of them are Outperform and Buy ratings with some of them calling this out as a buying opportunity. And although they’ve lowered the prices, all of those price targets are way higher than where Snowflake is trading now.
I think Sauls point was that his stocks are always considered way overvalued in the reports he gets from this source. Always. And it’s just unusual for one of his top picks to be considered undervalued.
In the wake of earnings I’ve sold a fair amount of NET and bought SNOW