BCC will likely go to 0 in about 4 weeks, on May 25th. NHNL might delay this by up to a month, but there are no signs of NHNL improving yet. The market is 14% below its high 81 market days ago. Since 1926, similar dates were followed by BCC=0 within 4 months for 14 out of 18 dates. For these 14 dates, the average time to BCC=0 was 29 days. (Similar dates had a high price 81 days earlier, and were between 10% and 18% below the high.)
The market’s high was 81 market days ago. This has happened 64 times since 1926, with a BCC=0 signal following within 4 months for 29 of those 64 dates. On those 29 dates, the market was on average 12% below its high. On the 35 dates that did not see a soon BCC=0, the market was on average 6% below its high. The market is now about 14% below its high.
— data —
Count of dates with various market days since high, [BCC]>0.
pct = countTRUE / (countFALSE + countTRUE).
PH98 = price / 98-day new high price (as used by DBE).
BCC=0 follows within 4 months is either FALSE or TRUE:
FALSE TRUE
bars since count count PH98 PH98
new high FALSE TRUE pct Average Average
16 217 12 5% 0.965 0.956
21 175 15 8% 0.960 0.958
26 152 17 10% 0.957 0.943
31 125 19 13% 0.953 0.916
36 108 22 17% 0.952 0.919
41 99 23 19% 0.950 0.909
46 84 24 22% 0.945 0.907
51 72 24 25% 0.946 0.902
56 58 28 33% 0.941 0.907
61 55 28 34% 0.939 0.896
66 51 28 35% 0.939 0.881
71 48 28 37% 0.943 0.872
76 41 28 41% 0.944 0.874
81 35 29 45% 0.944 0.879
86 33 29 47% 0.947 0.878
91 30 29 49% 0.944 0.883
96 29 29 50% 0.945 0.884
101 27 18 40% 0.956 0.901
106 22 18 45% 0.947 0.914
111 16 15 48% 0.935 0.932
116 13 14 52% 0.904 0.934
121 12 10 45% 0.899 0.924
126 13 10 43% 0.935 0.924
131 13 11 46% 0.944 0.918
136 9 12 57% 0.942 0.902
141 7 6 46% 0.932 0.882
Dates with bars since new high = 81. Sorted by PH98.
BCC=0 follows within 4 months when BCC0_soon is TRUE.
barsSince barsTo BCC0
Date [SMADiff] sma [NHNLDiff] nhnl [DBE] [BCC] gprc:1 hgprc:2,98 PH98 newHigh NewHigh BCC0 soon
19300113 -0.21 0 -0.72 0 1 4 21.52 31.86 0.675 0 81 26 TRUE
19330103 -0.09 0 -0.36 1 1 6 6.83 9.31 0.734 0 81 390 FALSE
19871218 -2.28 0 -2.81 0 1 4 249.16 336.77 0.740 0 81 18 TRUE
19460924 -0.11 0 -9.16 0 1 4 14.72 19.25 0.765 0 81 18 TRUE
19331109 0.12 1 0.10 1 1 7 9.87 12.2 0.809 0 81 173 FALSE
19300806 -0.44 0 -0.98 0 1 4 21.18 25.92 0.817 0 81 31 TRUE
19340605 -0.04 0 -0.41 0 1 4 9.72 11.82 0.822 0 81 32 TRUE
19571107 -0.23 0 -2.97 0 1 4 40.67 49.13 0.828 0 81 21 TRUE
19901107 -1.49 0 -3.56 0 1 4 306.01 368.95 0.829 0 81 18 TRUE
**19740207 -0.81 0 -0.57 0 1 4 93.3 111.44 0.837 0 81 35 TRUE**
**20080205 -5.08 0 -3.30 0 1 4 1336.64 1565.15 0.854 0 81 18 TRUE**
**20220429 -2.50 0 -16.57 0 1 4 4131.93 4796.56 0.861 0 81 ? ?**
**20110824 -1.55 0 -5.84 0 1 4 1177.6 1363.61 0.864 0 81 18 TRUE**
**19370706 -0.02 0 -1.54 0 1 4 16.25 18.67 0.870 0 81 37 TRUE**
**19410306 -0.04 0 -0.22 1 1 6 9.95 11.39 0.874 0 81 26 TRUE**
**20001228 -3.65 0 -7.37 0 1 4 1334.22 1520.77 0.877 0 81 38 TRUE**
19411119 -0.04 0 -3.41 0 1 4 9.34 10.47 0.892 0 81 18 TRUE
19470609 -0.18 0 -1.58 0 1 4 14.42 16.14 0.893 0 81 131 FALSE
19561128 0.05 1 -2.50 0 1 5 44.43 49.64 0.895 0 81 44 TRUE
19390206 0.10 1 0.99 1 1 7 12.47 13.91 0.896 0 81 48 TRUE
20100818 1.48 1 -2.25 0 1 5 1094.16 1217.28 0.899 0 81 275 FALSE
20190117 -2.48 0 0.40 1 1 6 2635.96 2930.75 0.899 0 81 845 FALSE
19600429 -0.22 0 -6.47 0 1 4 54.37 60.39 0.900 0 81 512 FALSE
19660607 -0.01 0 -1.53 0 1 4 84.83 94.06 0.902 0 81 18 TRUE
20200615 11.80 1 1.53 1 1 7 3066.59 3386.15 0.906 0 81 491 FALSE
19431105 0.09 1 0.62 1 1 7 11.59 12.64 0.917 0 81 743 FALSE
19730509 0.12 1 -4.80 0 1 5 110.44 120.24 0.918 0 81 18 TRUE
19900202 1.35 1 -3.20 0 1 5 330.92 359.8 0.920 0 81 211 FALSE
19790108 0.39 1 0.95 1 1 7 98.8 106.99 0.923 0 81 667 FALSE
19530501 -0.02 0 -1.28 0 1 4 24.73 26.66 0.928 0 81 21 TRUE
19690403 0.11 1 0.27 1 1 7 100.68 108.37 0.929 0 81 59 TRUE
19840203 0.30 1 -1.07 0 1 5 160.91 172.65 0.932 0 81 18 TRUE
19481008 0.03 1 -0.31 1 1 7 15.9 17.06 0.932 0 81 83 TRUE
19400221 0.06 1 2.85 1 1 7 12.32 13.21 0.933 0 81 56 TRUE
20150916 -5.01 0 -0.88 0 1 4 1995.31 2130.82 0.936 0 81 58 TRUE
19751106 0.88 1 0.47 1 1 7 89.55 95.61 0.937 0 81 1466 FALSE
19620409 0.18 1 -2.48 0 1 5 68.31 72.64 0.940 0 81 24 TRUE
19260610 0.03 1 0.00 1 1 7 13.3 14.13 0.941 0 81 932 FALSE
19471117 0.00 0 -0.78 0 1 4 15.19 16.12 0.942 0 81 18 TRUE
19710823 0.68 1 2.00 1 1 7 99.25 104.77 0.947 0 81 56 TRUE
19940601 0.31 1 0.08 1 1 7 457.63 482 0.949 0 81 18 TRUE
19591127 0.12 1 1.25 1 1 7 57.7 60.71 0.950 0 81 618 FALSE
19981110 7.54 1 0.43 1 1 7 1128.26 1186.75 0.951 0 81 576 FALSE
20180523 12.41 1 4.89 1 1 7 2733.29 2872.87 0.951 0 81 1009 FALSE
19261230 0.06 1 -0.21 1 1 7 14.29 14.93 0.957 0 81 790 FALSE
19520519 0.07 1 0.32 1 1 7 23.61 24.66 0.957 0 81 258 FALSE
19770117 0.12 1 4.35 1 1 7 103.73 107.83 0.962 0 81 1165 FALSE
19991109 5.75 1 1.83 1 1 7 1365.28 1418.78 0.962 0 81 325 FALSE
19680122 0.28 1 7.27 1 1 7 94.03 97.59 0.964 0 81 18 TRUE
19941223 -0.46 0 -1.33 0 1 4 459.83 476.07 0.966 0 81 1556 FALSE
19441101 0.05 1 2.28 1 1 7 12.83 13.27 0.967 0 81 491 FALSE
19930706 1.39 1 1.89 1 1 7 441.43 456.33 0.967 0 81 247 FALSE
19800610 0.19 1 1.80 1 1 7 114.66 118.44 0.968 0 81 307 FALSE
19810326 1.13 1 5.91 1 1 7 136.27 140.52 0.970 0 81 107 FALSE
20050630 4.22 1 1.89 1 1 7 1191.33 1225.31 0.972 0 81 671 FALSE
20120727 10.40 1 -0.57 0 1 5 1385.97 1419.04 0.977 0 81 846 FALSE
20000720 10.21 1 0.68 1 1 7 1495.57 1527.46 0.979 0 81 150 FALSE
19650908 0.10 1 4.03 1 1 7 88.66 90.27 0.982 0 81 206 FALSE
19601220 0.06 1 3.98 1 1 7 57.09 58.07 0.983 0 81 350 FALSE
19350503 -0.03 0 2.19 1 1 6 9.42 9.58 0.983 0 81 586 FALSE
20060830 4.00 1 0.80 1 1 7 1305.37 1325.76 0.985 0 81 377 FALSE
20040608 6.59 1 2.00 1 1 7 1142.18 1157.76 0.987 0 81 939 FALSE
19610811 0.67 1 6.22 1 1 7 68.06 68.68 0.991 0 81 189 FALSE
19280127 0.12 1 4.32 1 1 7 17.69 17.79 0.994 0 81 518 FALSE
19920511 1.66 1 1.45 1 1 7 418.49 420.77 0.995 0 81 538 FALSE