Some DBE probabilities, day 81

BCC will likely go to 0 in about 4 weeks, on May 25th. NHNL might delay this by up to a month, but there are no signs of NHNL improving yet. The market is 14% below its high 81 market days ago. Since 1926, similar dates were followed by BCC=0 within 4 months for 14 out of 18 dates. For these 14 dates, the average time to BCC=0 was 29 days. (Similar dates had a high price 81 days earlier, and were between 10% and 18% below the high.)

The market’s high was 81 market days ago. This has happened 64 times since 1926, with a BCC=0 signal following within 4 months for 29 of those 64 dates. On those 29 dates, the market was on average 12% below its high. On the 35 dates that did not see a soon BCC=0, the market was on average 6% below its high. The market is now about 14% below its high.

— data —

Count of dates with various market days since high, [BCC]>0.
pct = countTRUE / (countFALSE + countTRUE).
PH98 = price / 98-day new high price (as used by DBE).
BCC=0 follows within 4 months is either FALSE or TRUE:

                                FALSE     TRUE
bars since  count  count         PH98     PH98
 new high   FALSE  TRUE   pct  Average  Average
    16       217     12   5%    0.965    0.956
    21       175     15   8%    0.960    0.958
    26       152     17   10%   0.957    0.943
    31       125     19   13%   0.953    0.916
    36       108     22   17%   0.952    0.919
    41        99     23   19%   0.950    0.909
    46        84     24   22%   0.945    0.907
    51        72     24   25%   0.946    0.902
    56        58     28   33%   0.941    0.907
    61        55     28   34%   0.939    0.896
    66        51     28   35%   0.939    0.881
    71        48     28   37%   0.943    0.872
    76        41     28   41%   0.944    0.874
    81        35     29   45%   0.944    0.879
    86        33     29   47%   0.947    0.878
    91        30     29   49%   0.944    0.883
    96        29     29   50%   0.945    0.884
    101       27     18   40%   0.956    0.901
    106       22     18   45%   0.947    0.914
    111       16     15   48%   0.935    0.932
    116       13     14   52%   0.904    0.934
    121       12     10   45%   0.899    0.924
    126       13     10   43%   0.935    0.924
    131       13     11   46%   0.944    0.918
    136       9      12   57%   0.942    0.902
    141       7      6    46%   0.932    0.882

Dates with bars since new high = 81. Sorted by PH98.
BCC=0 follows within 4 months when BCC0_soon is TRUE.

                                                                                               barsSince  barsTo  BCC0
  Date    [SMADiff]  sma  [NHNLDiff]  nhnl  [DBE]  [BCC]  gprc:1   hgprc:2,98  PH98   newHigh   NewHigh    BCC0   soon
19300113    -0.21     0     -0.72       0     1      4     21.52     31.86     0.675     0         81       26    TRUE
19330103    -0.09     0     -0.36       1     1      6      6.83      9.31     0.734     0         81       390   FALSE
19871218    -2.28     0     -2.81       0     1      4    249.16     336.77    0.740     0         81       18    TRUE
19460924    -0.11     0     -9.16       0     1      4     14.72     19.25     0.765     0         81       18    TRUE
19331109    0.12      1      0.10       1     1      7      9.87      12.2     0.809     0         81       173   FALSE
19300806    -0.44     0     -0.98       0     1      4     21.18     25.92     0.817     0         81       31    TRUE
19340605    -0.04     0     -0.41       0     1      4      9.72     11.82     0.822     0         81       32    TRUE
19571107    -0.23     0     -2.97       0     1      4     40.67     49.13     0.828     0         81       21    TRUE
19901107    -1.49     0     -3.56       0     1      4    306.01     368.95    0.829     0         81       18    TRUE
**19740207    -0.81     0     -0.57       0     1      4      93.3     111.44    0.837     0         81       35    TRUE**
**20080205    -5.08     0     -3.30       0     1      4    1336.64    1565.15   0.854     0         81       18    TRUE**
**20220429    -2.50     0     -16.57      0     1      4    4131.93    4796.56   0.861     0         81       ?       ?**
**20110824    -1.55     0     -5.84       0     1      4    1177.6     1363.61   0.864     0         81       18    TRUE**
**19370706    -0.02     0     -1.54       0     1      4     16.25     18.67     0.870     0         81       37    TRUE**
**19410306    -0.04     0     -0.22       1     1      6      9.95     11.39     0.874     0         81       26    TRUE**
**20001228    -3.65     0     -7.37       0     1      4    1334.22    1520.77   0.877     0         81       38    TRUE**
19411119    -0.04     0     -3.41       0     1      4      9.34     10.47     0.892     0         81       18    TRUE
19470609    -0.18     0     -1.58       0     1      4     14.42     16.14     0.893     0         81       131   FALSE
19561128    0.05      1     -2.50       0     1      5     44.43     49.64     0.895     0         81       44    TRUE
19390206    0.10      1      0.99       1     1      7     12.47     13.91     0.896     0         81       48    TRUE
20100818    1.48      1     -2.25       0     1      5    1094.16    1217.28   0.899     0         81       275   FALSE
20190117    -2.48     0      0.40       1     1      6    2635.96    2930.75   0.899     0         81       845   FALSE
19600429    -0.22     0     -6.47       0     1      4     54.37     60.39     0.900     0         81       512   FALSE
19660607    -0.01     0     -1.53       0     1      4     84.83     94.06     0.902     0         81       18    TRUE
20200615    11.80     1      1.53       1     1      7    3066.59    3386.15   0.906     0         81       491   FALSE
19431105    0.09      1      0.62       1     1      7     11.59     12.64     0.917     0         81       743   FALSE
19730509    0.12      1     -4.80       0     1      5    110.44     120.24    0.918     0         81       18    TRUE
19900202    1.35      1     -3.20       0     1      5    330.92     359.8     0.920     0         81       211   FALSE
19790108    0.39      1      0.95       1     1      7      98.8     106.99    0.923     0         81       667   FALSE
19530501    -0.02     0     -1.28       0     1      4     24.73     26.66     0.928     0         81       21    TRUE
19690403    0.11      1      0.27       1     1      7    100.68     108.37    0.929     0         81       59    TRUE
19840203    0.30      1     -1.07       0     1      5    160.91     172.65    0.932     0         81       18    TRUE
19481008    0.03      1     -0.31       1     1      7      15.9     17.06     0.932     0         81       83    TRUE
19400221    0.06      1      2.85       1     1      7     12.32     13.21     0.933     0         81       56    TRUE
20150916    -5.01     0     -0.88       0     1      4    1995.31    2130.82   0.936     0         81       58    TRUE
19751106    0.88      1      0.47       1     1      7     89.55     95.61     0.937     0         81      1466   FALSE
19620409    0.18      1     -2.48       0     1      5     68.31     72.64     0.940     0         81       24    TRUE
19260610    0.03      1      0.00       1     1      7      13.3     14.13     0.941     0         81       932   FALSE
19471117    0.00      0     -0.78       0     1      4     15.19     16.12     0.942     0         81       18    TRUE
19710823    0.68      1      2.00       1     1      7     99.25     104.77    0.947     0         81       56    TRUE
19940601    0.31      1      0.08       1     1      7    457.63       482     0.949     0         81       18    TRUE
19591127    0.12      1      1.25       1     1      7      57.7     60.71     0.950     0         81       618   FALSE
19981110    7.54      1      0.43       1     1      7    1128.26    1186.75   0.951     0         81       576   FALSE
20180523    12.41     1      4.89       1     1      7    2733.29    2872.87   0.951     0         81      1009   FALSE
19261230    0.06      1     -0.21       1     1      7     14.29     14.93     0.957     0         81       790   FALSE
19520519    0.07      1      0.32       1     1      7     23.61     24.66     0.957     0         81       258   FALSE
19770117    0.12      1      4.35       1     1      7    103.73     107.83    0.962     0         81      1165   FALSE
19991109    5.75      1      1.83       1     1      7    1365.28    1418.78   0.962     0         81       325   FALSE
19680122    0.28      1      7.27       1     1      7     94.03     97.59     0.964     0         81       18    TRUE
19941223    -0.46     0     -1.33       0     1      4    459.83     476.07    0.966     0         81      1556   FALSE
19441101    0.05      1      2.28       1     1      7     12.83     13.27     0.967     0         81       491   FALSE
19930706    1.39      1      1.89       1     1      7    441.43     456.33    0.967     0         81       247   FALSE
19800610    0.19      1      1.80       1     1      7    114.66     118.44    0.968     0         81       307   FALSE
19810326    1.13      1      5.91       1     1      7    136.27     140.52    0.970     0         81       107   FALSE
20050630    4.22      1      1.89       1     1      7    1191.33    1225.31   0.972     0         81       671   FALSE
20120727    10.40     1     -0.57       0     1      5    1385.97    1419.04   0.977     0         81       846   FALSE
20000720    10.21     1      0.68       1     1      7    1495.57    1527.46   0.979     0         81       150   FALSE
19650908    0.10      1      4.03       1     1      7     88.66     90.27     0.982     0         81       206   FALSE
19601220    0.06      1      3.98       1     1      7     57.09     58.07     0.983     0         81       350   FALSE
19350503    -0.03     0      2.19       1     1      6      9.42      9.58     0.983     0         81       586   FALSE
20060830    4.00      1      0.80       1     1      7    1305.37    1325.76   0.985     0         81       377   FALSE
20040608    6.59      1      2.00       1     1      7    1142.18    1157.76   0.987     0         81       939   FALSE
19610811    0.67      1      6.22       1     1      7     68.06     68.68     0.991     0         81       189   FALSE
19280127    0.12      1      4.32       1     1      7     17.69     17.79     0.994     0         81       518   FALSE
19920511    1.66      1      1.45       1     1      7    418.49     420.77    0.995     0         81       538   FALSE
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