Mike Shedlock, the founder of this board, has written an excellent blog post about the stock market action during the popping of the dot-com bubble, which has more than a passing resemblance to 2020’s tech “growth stock” bubble.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/if-unemployment-levels-remain…
Take a look at the repeated bear market rallies before the bottom in 2002.
Wendy
That is an excellently written and researched report.
I agree with his ideas on unemployment.
I agree with his tentative targets.
but it wont be as long as two years. Most of 2023 MIGHT be a long bottom al la 1948. That is the painful thing. Those seniors depending on the market are going to be in for some deep hurt.
That is an excellently written and researched report.
I agree with his ideas on unemployment.
I agree with his tentative targets.
I agree also, especially on the market bottoms. I think on this very forum earlier this week I proposed an S&P of 2800 give/or take a bit. 2400 is a reasonable forecast.
…but it wont be as long as two years. Most of 2023 MIGHT be a long bottom al la 1948. That is the painful thing. Those seniors depending on the market are going to be in for some deep hurt.
It might (will) scare some people but I wouldn’t call it deep hurt. People (Seniors who are living on their stash) usually take their annual funding around the holidays. Dec or Jan. As long as it’s heading up or about to by the following year it doesn’t really matter what it does in between.