Stuff to short - a thread

If this BMR lasts much longer, I am of the mindset to eventually short some thing(s).

On my potential short list are:
QQQ, SPY - aka the indexes
SNOW (probably after ER though), MNDY, NET, NVDA, maybe AAPL. Probably a bunch of candidates out there. It will depend on who has run up the furthest from 52 wk low and/or how rich their multiples (still) are.

If anyone else is inclined to short something, as we hurtle headlong into a potential 2023 recession, I am curious if you see any obvious over-bought candidates you want to bring forward for review (or ridicule)?

Thinking we can eventually do a Short Tracking thread…well…probably on this thread, I guess. Maybe even a poll!

In short (see what I did there?) I think we still revisit and/or exceed the recent lows. S&P500 of what…2800 to 2500 when all said and done?

So I would like to make some money on the way down. Nothing crazy…just a bit better than cash and pull even for the year (if possible). Then go crazy long at the extreme lows.

Of course, if this BMR has Santa Rally legs, I may be stuck waiting until January for things to go South. But my spidey sense says Dec 2018 is a guide and we all may get a big box of poop under the tree this year. Will see.



If you think it is going to go down that far just buy Sark or sarkk.


I would have to see what stocks make up the ETF that is based on.
I know Cathie Wood likes a ton of growth stuff, but not necessarily Saul stocks…crap like TSLA, TDOC, ZM, ROKU, etc…some things that are already broken toys.

And then is decay an issue?


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Decay would definitely be an issue but it seems to track down days in Arkk very well.


Just a follow-up here, that I am reluctant to short since we just had a few down days, dampening the recent BMR spike up.

So it feels like we are in the “Meh” zone of being higher than preferred for good entries, but not being so high that a short seems advisable.

Sitting on my hands, all cash, until something…happens.


Same here dreamer, this is a really tricky market. Thinking of just writing puts on some companies I would like to pick up cheaper.


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I’m not that big on technical analysis but…

It might make sense to wait until the SPX gets to close to 4065-4100 before shorting

The last time it hit the 200 day (on a day chart) moving average and came back down was 8/16. For today that would be around about 4065.

If you draw a line across all the market tops (BMR) since January 4th it has bounced off the line and went down dramatically 3/29 and 8/16. Today it would be about 4100 on the SPX.


thoughts on shorting, based on my personal albeit somewhat limited experience

Shorting is really difficult, the long term trend of major indices is up, so that is a natural headwind.

When shorting you have to time the top (sell) and bottom (buy), which I’ve found quite difficult. I’ve been short volatile etfs like small caps via long puts during bear markets, but how do you decide when markets have fallen enough? I don’t know. I suppose you can average in and then average out, but I don’t have a good answer. In contrast, when you are long stocks, and because the long term trend is up, if you just hold long enough, history shows you will make money. So all short positions have an (unknown) expiration date, whereas long positions (at least on a market index) do not expire.

I do not outright short. I have only shorted via long puts. I do not outright short because I do not trust the operations of any brokerage. When you are short stock you are exposed to, theoretically, unlimited losses and you must have a margin account. Suppose there is one bad price tick that spikes way up (think flash crash event, except flash up) on your short stock and your broker marks your account with this way high and bad price and makes a margin call on your account and liquidates a bunch of your positions to cover the margin call. Bad prices occur all of the time - just think how many prices are streaming every day across all securities - there will be bad price data. I get that this is very unlikely, but this is not a risk I want to put in the hands of any brokerage software. Even if the facts are on my side, I don’t want to go through the mess of sorting all of that out in the case of a pricing mess up. I bet that this is a rare event, and systems are most likely always improving, but I also bet that it has happened to people and was very unpleasant.

I was thinking recently about shorting and looking at puts on ARKK, but I haven’t gotten too serious, because in the long run I have lost money trying to short.

I would challenge anyone on this board, if they short (or go long puts), to post their positions as they take them and let’s see how it works out. In, I think, early 2021, maybe before I can’t recall, I was looking at Carvana and thinking this is a garbage business with terrible financials but it kept going up, and they did indeed crash, but it took awhile. So during the peak of this last bubble, when people were (correctly) calling a bubble, it can take time, like years, for these things to play out.