The market is impossible to trade this year. Any short term trades until the last few weeks seemed to be crushed.
So I thinking let’s just wait on some solid news like today. A lower (good) CPI report.
Had the TQQQ buy @ market price premarket queued up on CPI release this morning. I know someone with a Bloomberg terminal and when I saw a 0% pop up -didn’t even care if it was month-over-month or core I pushed that buy.
It was at least 5-7 seconds before CNBC had it.
I was still filled at 35.90 almost 5% above the previous minute ticker close. Quants see that momentum and just jump in front of you.
So after that I’m looking around and see upstart at 29 and I’m thinking I should buy some but never did.
Then while I was typing this up I just received a notice from the WSJ that after today were officially in a bull market on the Nasdaq +20% from the bottom.
Unreal year so far
CPI release this morning
Thanks, Coopershawk. You are more informative than E*Trade and Schwab combined. There is at least a broader market rational. But feel free to filter that down to UPST and TTD.
The theme has been inflation and interest rates since November. Those of us (me) who were unaware of the CPI report ought not to be playing in the market… Schedule for the CPI was on the E*Trade market calendar so the finger points at me.
Not that I would have bought in expectation of a “good” report.
Michael Burry and others online pointing out that typical bear market rally is 23%.
And apparently there were quite a few 20%+ BMRs from 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 while the market continued to plunge greatly over that time.
I am still of the opinion that this is a BMR.
Why? Because the meme stocks are back, and this seems to be retail investor driven. When the fund mgrs all back from summer vacations and QT starts and liquidity dries up, might be a diff story. Is that in 2 days or 2 weeks or 2 months? I dunno. Still think we retest lows before EOY.
But I am just a guy on the internet who sometimes likes to be contrarian and/or who feels a bit crazy on a ship of fools.
I agree that this may be a bear market rally but I do believe the bottom probably has been set already. I think we could retrace to that bottom at some point but who knows.
The average return after a -7% month (June) followed by a +7% month (July) since 1974 is as follows:
in months after that occurs (So Starting August 1st 2022)_
Also according to Ned Davis Research if the DOW (not relevant but a proxy for the markets) They maintain that a 30% rise in stocks for more than 50 days, or a 13% gain for more than 155 days, heralds the start of a new bull market.
So we’ll see if we get there!
I have stop orders set just in case things turn