I thought high gas prices were a good thing … you know speed up transition to EVs and all that?
Surely this is not about politics … or is it?
Anymouse <cancelled the new (Honda) car plan, keeping the Micra with new tires and oil change.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/12/politics/us-gas-prices-waiver…
… emergency waiver on summer ethanol ban to combat rising gas prices
Thought occurs, if everyone starts driving EV’s will the price of electricity rise?
Thought occurs, if everyone starts driving EV’s will the price of electricity rise?
I doubt it would rise, but might slow the cheapening… there’s tons of wind coming online, and utilities are desperate to find customers for their old-but-serviceable nuke plants.
The Sun does not charge for shining, the wind does not charge for blowing.
The Captain
The Sun does not charge for shining, the wind does not charge for blowing.
The Captain
I’ve always thought building a wind farm within Wash DC would generate massive amounts of power from bloviating politicians.
…emergency waiver on summer ethanol ban to combat rising gas prices
I’m sure glad corn prices haven’t been going up. And what about fertilizer?
DB2
Corn up over 30% since the beginning of the year
The Sun does not charge for shining, the wind does not charge for blowing.
The Captain
However, solar panels and those huge windmills are not free?
We get very little power from solar in Nova Scotia, mostly cottage water heating in summer. We do however have a whole lot of wind … also due to our location stuck out into the Atlantic. I do own shares in Emera that owns NS Power.
Tim
https://www.nspower.ca/cleanandgreen/renewable-energy-source…
Thought occurs, if everyone starts driving EV’s will the price of electricity rise?
Gasoline is 16% of total US energy use. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/use-of-gasoline…. (Unfortunately this includes small aircraft - but that’s on the order of 0.1% of total gasoline.)
Electricity is 38%. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
Does anybody think we have spare generating capacity lying around equal to 42% of current consumption? I certainly don’t. Sure, we have SOME - there are seasonal, weekly, and daily cycles of power consumption, and the utilities try to provide for the expected peaks - but THAT much?
This would mean that we’d need to build LOTS of new generating capacity - and if we do it in the form of windmills, we need capacity of about 3X to 5X the desired electricity (because the capacity factor for wind is so low) plus LOTS of storage capacity (because the wind sometimes blows when you don’t immediately need the electricity). This would be expensive, and the logical way to pay for it is to charge more for the electricity.
We get very little power from solar in Nova Scotia, mostly cottage water heating in summer. We do however have a whole lot of wind … also due to our location stuck out into the Atlantic. I do own shares in Emera that owns NS Power.
Tim
Tim it may be possible to increase the solar production in Nova Scotia. You guys are at a latitude average if 45. Germany at a latitude average of 51 gets 40% of its energy from solar during peak oppertunity time.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/solar-power-germa….
Also Tim!
Electricity is 38%. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/
Does anybody think we have spare generating capacity lying around equal to 42% of current consumption? I certainly don’t.
When I was a young engineering student the talk was 10% of power consumption was wasted on the transmission wires. Today in the US that talk is of 40% of the power is wasted on the grid. Modernization of the grid into a smart grid would dig out a considerable amount of that capacity you are asking about.
Since all of this electricity is not needed right this moment your argument is a non starter.
I would think that spare generating capacity or battery storage could easily add 4% per year. The transition to electric cars will be a slow,and slowly accelerating, trend over the next ten to fifteen years,not an immediate need. Also,a portion of that four percent increase can be more use of generating capacity as more ev charging will most likely occur during off peak hours.
I could be optimistic in my ten to fifteen years timeline.That could easily take twenty years. My belief is that long term storage of energy will be economical within that time frame,either through increased battery energy density per dollars of capital cost,or cheaper solar where individual solar on rooftops becomes cheap enough to make sense almost anywhere. Everyone could be charging their own car with solar on the roof and a Tesla powerwall in the garage. Or go with an Enphase system,which is already completely able to integrate seamlessly with the grid and switch to off grid in milliseconds if need be.
JK
L
T
Tim it may be possible to increase the solar production in Nova Scotia. You guys are at a latitude average if 45. Germany at a latitude average of 51…
Germany has installed lots of solar panels. However, the capacity factor is dismal (just over 10%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany
DB2
You guys are at a latitude average if 45. Germany at a latitude average of 51 gets 40% of its energy from solar during peak oppertunity time.
The sun is brighter in Germany. LOL
The transition to electric cars will be a slow,and slowly accelerating,
Jim,
I do not know enough about the specifics of a tipping point. Whitney Tilson is saying this year for EV is the tipping point. I think it is put off by about two years because of semiconductor shortages.
I believe Intel is building a foundry in Ireland for automotive chips.
But we are arriving at a tipping point very quickly. JMO The arguments about cost benefit analysis in the automotive industry are half ar$ed because vehicles are blackholes for money. People still love to ride.
However, the capacity factor is dismal (just over 10%).
DB2,
Now you have me curious, any ideas off hand on what the capacity factors are in southern CA or Florida?
Tim it may be possible to increase the solar production in Nova Scotia. You guys are at a latitude average if 45. Germany at a latitude average of 51 gets 40% of its energy from solar during peak oppertunity time.
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/solar-power-germa……
Also Tim!
I spent 15.5 years of my life living in Germany. While parts of it are sunny, they have lots of rain for long periods of time as does Nova Scotia. With an infinite number of solar panels we certainly could increase ours somewhat but our brutal winters would preclude doing it in a cost effective way?
If numbers are your thing so be it. Part of Germany’s recent renewables problems were caused by the failure of wind to provide it’s expected share of the burden. Germany is a highly industrial country. They need the lights to come on when they hit the switch. Unfortunately they chose Russian Nat Gas to fill those holes in the system. };-@
So closing your eyes and hoping the wind will blow and the sun will shine didn’t work either? I’ve often thought there is Hydro potential but apparently that would be detrimental to the tourist industry.
Another Also Tim
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-renewables-us…
June 28, 2021 9:49 AM ADT
German renewables use knocked by lower wind output
Reuters
FRANKFURT, June 28 (Reuters) - Renewable energy accounted for a smaller slice of German usage in the first half of the year as wind output fell, industry groups said on Monday, falling to 42.6% of the total, down 8.1 percentage points.
However, the capacity factor is dismal (just over 10%).
—
Now you have me curious, any ideas off hand on what the capacity factors are in southern CA or Florida?
California comes in at just under 30%. FWIW, the capacity factor for nuclear in the US is 90+%.
https://solarsena.com/solar-capacity-factor-states-power/#:~…
DB2
I do not know enough about the specifics of a tipping point. Whitney Tilson is saying this year for EV is the tipping point.
What does tipping point mean in this context?
DB2
I do not know enough about the specifics of a tipping point. Whitney Tilson is saying this year for EV is the tipping point.
What does tipping point mean in this context?
I dunno, but for some reason I’m thinking of the “smart” line of cars. They became available in the US in January 2008 with deliveries beginning in April, rated the most fuel-efficient two-person car on the market by the EPA while also getting top scores for crash protection of passengers from IIHS, and sold (in the US) over 2000 vehicles in each of all but two of the remaining months of that year.
And never again sold 2000 vehicles in a month in the US. In fact, after 2009 there were only 4 months where they sold over 1000 vehicles.
The company gave up on the US and Canada market (for that product line) in 2019.
FRANKFURT, June 28 (Reuters) - Renewable energy accounted for a smaller slice of German usage in the first half of the year as wind output fell, industry groups said on Monday, falling to 42.6% of the total, down 8.1 percentage points.
Interesting argument…but kind of one sided.
We can all see in the US coal powered electrical output has dropped far more substantially than 8.1%. Of course there has been a hell of a difference in why…so obviously using coal at all is a bad idea.
What does tipping point mean in this context?
DB2
In boiled down terms, the industry ramping up while the comparison of costs between a combustion engine and electric vehicle begins to favor the EV. The rise in EV production is in a place where it will rise substantially from here year after year.
I think the point comparing costs is not important. I get totally out of whack costs would be important, but marginal differences wont stop well of people from buying and using EVs.