SWKS and AAPL outlook...again

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Like dominoes, a sixth analyst since Monday pared his 2016 Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone estimates Thursday, while also cutting forecasts for Apple chip suppliers Skyworks Solutions and Qorvo.
Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton models a 5% year-over-year decline to 220 million iPhones shipped in Apple’s fiscal 2016, ending in late September, vs. prior estimates for a 6% jump to 245 million units.
Bolton also remodeled his forecast for Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) and Qorvo’s (NASDAQ:QRVO) next three quarters on perceived Asian supply chain weakness. Earlier this week, German Apple supplier Dialog Semiconductor lowered December revenue guidance on soft mobile sales.

For Skyworks’ fiscal Q1 (ending this month), Bolton lowered his revenue and earnings per share ex items to $925 million and $1.59 vs. the consensus of 25 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $927.6 million and $1.60, respectively.
In November, Skyworks guided to $925 million to $930 million in sales and $1.60 EPS ex items.
Bolton dropped his fiscal Q2 estimate to $856 million in sales and $1.42 EPS ex items. For the fiscal year ending in September, he sees Skyworks pulling in $3.68 billion and $6.30.

Here is their Apple supplier check…

“Additionally, several analysts in Asia have reported reductions in Apple iPhone build rates,” Bolton said in his research report.
On Tuesday, Dialog Semiconductor cut its December sales guidance to $390 million to $400 million vs. its earlier outlook for $430 million to $460 million. Dialog cited weaker-than-expected mobile sales.
In 2014, Apple accounted for 97% of Dialog’s mobile sales and 79% of total revenue, Bolton wrote.
Bolton’s new iPhone model assumes Apple will report 75 million units shipped in December, 52 million in March, 45 million in July and 48 million in October.
“We believe these estimates are near the low end of Street consensus estimates for Apple,” he wrote.

Read More At Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/technology/121715-785807-apple-iph…

Sounds like no rush to fill out a position in SWKS.

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Here is their Apple supplier check…

Time and again, Apple has shown that supplier checks are (1) highly erroneous and (2) have little correlation with Apple’s actual results.

Apple typically has many suppliers for various parts, is regularly changing out parts, shifting mix between suppliers, and so on, and also offers very little long-term visibility to most suppliers. It also starts with varying amounts of initial inventory of certain parts. Apple management has discussed this many times. If you’re going to make investment decisions based on this stuff, then I highly recommend at least going back and reading through Apple’s conference calls. If there’s one company that analysts consistency screw up on, it’s Apple.

But all that aside, a long-term investment in SWKS has very little to do with AAPL anyway.

Neil
Long AAPL, SWKS

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http://fortune.com/2015/12/16/apple-supply-chain-rumors/

Daniel Eran Dilger, writing for AppleInsider, goes further than Munster. Cataloging a long list of sketchy Apple rumors from the past, he took readers back to December 2012 when a Citibank analyst’s warning of weak iPhone 5 demand based on “near-term supply chain orders” sent Apple shares into a tailspin.

Writes Dilger:

“Not only was that information subsequently found to have been inappropriately leaked to hedge fund SAC Capital, allowing that firm advanced opportunity to profit from the stock selloff Citi’s predictions triggered, but the information itself was not correct. Apple’s iPhone 5 remained the world’s top selling smartphone and continued to enjoy rapid sales even as investors began dumping Apple’s stock on the ‘news’ that the phone wasn’t selling well.

Robert

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