I was thinking of adding to my small position with this pull back. Is the pull back all China effect or is there something more to it? I know many of you have large positions but if that were not so, is this a good time to add?
Thanks
usha
ps learned a lot from the discussion on AMBA both here and RB board and added to my position
Thank you all for sharing your knowledge so freely
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I like SWKS too and plan to establish a major position. However, the majority of stocks follow the overall market up or down. Even great stocks, so why rush?
The S&P 500 made an attempt to rebound and that stalled at 1185. I take this level to be the new milestone. When the index can rise above 1185, I will have stronger confidence that the reboubd is real and not a head fake. Then, I will buy or add to SWKS.
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ushats,
… is this a good time to add?
Here are a couple of data points:
Rev Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 364.7 389.0 421.1 453.7
2013 425.0 436.1 477.0 505.2
2014 481.0 587.0 718.2 805.5
2015 762.1 810.0
AdjEPS Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 0.42 0.45 0.53 0.55
2013 0.48 0.54 0.64 0.67
2014 0.62 0.83 1.12 1.26
2015 1.15 1.34
RevQ/Q Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012
2013 16.5% 12.1% 13.3% 11.4%
2014 13.2% 34.6% 50.6% 59.4%
2015 58.4% 38.0%
EPSQ/Q Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012
2013 14.3% 20.0% 20.8% 21.8%
2014 29.2% 53.7% 75.0% 88.1%
2015 85.5% 61.4%
Adj GM Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 43.2% 43.2% 42.9% 43.0%
2013 42.2% 44.0% 44.4% 44.5%
2014 44.7% 45.4% 45.9% 46.7%
2015 46.7% 49.0%
Management said that they’ll hit $7.00 TTM EPS at some time in 2016 and that their margins on incremental business from here on out will exceed 50%.
Quarter EPS QoQGr TTMEPS TTMGr Hi Lo Close P/E P/E Hi P/E Lo
Mar-12 0.42 $29.01 $16.48 $27.65
Jun-12 0.45 $29.09 $23.11 $27.32
Sep-12 0.53 $31.44 $22.36 $23.56
Dec-12 0.55 1.95 $24.45 $19.21 $20.30 10.4 12.5 9.9
Mar-13 0.48 14.3% 2.01 $25.10 $20.25 $22.03 11.0 12.5 10.1
Jun-13 0.54 20.0% 2.10 $24.58 $19.57 $21.89 10.4 11.7 9.3
Sep-13 0.64 20.8% 2.21 $26.46 $20.95 $24.84 11.2 12.0 9.5
Dec-13 0.67 21.8% 2.33 19.5% $28.64 $23.27 $28.56 12.3 12.3 10.0
Mar-14 0.62 29.2% 2.47 22.9% $39.34 $27.20 $37.52 15.2 15.9 11.0
Jun-14 0.83 53.7% 2.76 31.4% $49.10 $34.30 $46.96 17.0 17.8 12.4
Sep-14 1.12 75.0% 3.24 46.6% $59.25 $45.50 $58.05 17.9 18.3 14.0
Dec-14 1.26 88.1% 3.83 64.4% $74.97 $44.06 $72.71 19.0 19.6 11.5
Mar-15 1.15 85.5% 4.36 76.5% $102.77 $68.71 $98.29 22.5 23.6 15.8
Jun-15 1.34 61.4% 4.87 76.4% $112.88 $90.68 $105.74 21.7 23.2 18.6
====================================================================================
Sep-15 1.51 34.8% 5.26 62.3% $123.98 $60.51 $84.00 16.0
Dec-15 1.58 25.4% 5.58 45.7% $131.54 $64.20 $84.00 15.1
Mar-16 1.44 25.4% 5.87 34.7% $138.43 $67.56 $84.00 14.3
Jun-16 1.68 25.4% 6.21 27.6% $146.47 $71.48 $84.00 13.5
Sep-16 1.89 25.4% 6.60 25.4% $155.52 $75.90 $84.00 12.7
Dec-16 1.98 25.4% 7.00 25.4% $165.00 $80.53 $84.00 12.0
Their P/E is about 16 now (lower than any other time since the March '14 quarter) and has been almost as high as 24 over the last year. If they do in fact hit $7.00 EPS in the last quarter of 2016 (it could happen earlier), their P/E (adj.) at today’s pre-market price of $84 will be 12.
How would you answer your question? 
DJ
21 Likes
By the trailing PEG it looks great. I have it at 0.22. The question are:
Do you think the world’s addition to premium smart phones is about to end?
Do you think that there is a serious competitor to SWKS about to raise its ugly head?
I’m not an electrical engineer so I can’t answer the second question, but I have not seen any negative news so I assume that’s not there is not a competitive threat on the horizon.
PEG ~ 0.22 and an a customer who can’t seem to live without your product. Yup. I think the water is great. Jump on in if you agree.
This is one of my larger holdings.
Best,
bulwnkl
Thank you DJ for taking the time to respond with so much detailed info. Someday I hope to help others similarly
usha
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