Ton(ne)- mile development - Chinese oil demand drawing supply that was bound for Europe
The Black Sea trades are likely via mid-size tankers (Suezmax, Aframax), while the North Sea size lot could be a VLCC or 2 Suezmax.
2 Likes
Interesting article.
I have a different view than the author… who claims China is coming out from it’s COVID issues.
I think for the next few months, China is going to REALLY get stunned by COVID. So, I doubt the Chinese economy is going to be roaring ahead immediately. Limiting oil import increases.
Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
Right now, it is probably just a couple of data-points.
China sourcing from locations they would not usually do, sort of hints at a potential to just set off a few alarms as a distraction to problems internal to China. OTOH, China has become a big exporter of refined petroleum products which means securing the crude oil might not necessarily be for China use. Rather, it might be a way of China to build up export reserves ahead of another (potential) lockdown.
Another article with a related focus–
Big takeaway: Expect to see a shuffle of fleet - with older vessels and non-compliant vessels headed for Russian trades, and the owners who fear European/Western sanctions moving out of Russian trades
Also, good explanation for the increased clean tanker demand - Russian export surge before a Feb 2023 ban.