Tesla business performance

[mostlylong]

Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle sales estimates.

Not a (positive) growth company right now.

Wells Fargo analysts maintained an Underweight rating and $120 a share price target on Tesla in a note on Tuesday, stating that the company’s Q2 deliveries are “on track for another poor quarter.”

Global deliveries in May were “trending 23% lower y/y,” with Q2 quarter-to-date (QTD) figures down “21% lower y/y.”

All three key regions—North America, Europe, and China—are said to be experiencing double-digit percentage declines, with Europe being the most significantly impacted.

Wells Fargo notes that the “fundamentals of the core auto business continue to weaken.”
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In North America, Tesla deliveries are “13% lower QTD y/y,”
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Europe is a “glaring concern,” with Q2 QTD deliveries trending “42% lower y/y,”
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China, Tesla’s second-largest market, is “trending 22% lower QTD.”

[Goofyhoofy]

@mostlylong

stating that the company’s Q2 deliveries are “on track for another poor quarter.”

That’s not a “poor quarter’. That’s a disaster wrapped in a catastrophe.

[mostlylong]

Recent performance of Tesla insurance.

Do they have a data advantage?

I’m not sure they would, maybe someone can explain.

They might have a repair shop advantage, including parts.

In May 2025, Tesla’s insurance arm posted a combined ratio of 121% — meaning for every dollar in premiums, it paid out $1.21 in claims and expenses. For context, most insurers break out into a profuse, “I am going to lose my job” sweat if that number nudges above 95%.
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Above 100%? You’re losing money
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Tesla Insurance launched with a promise: harness real-time driving data, reward safe behavior, and undercut legacy insurers. The pitch? “We know our cars best, so we can price risk better.” For a while, it worked—sort of. By 2024, Tesla Insurance had reached a $300 million annual premium run rate and was available in 16 states (Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings). But then came the numbers: a combined ratio of 145% in 2023, easing to “only” 121% by Q3 2024.
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And then there’s the repair bill. Teslas remain expensive to fix, with parts and labor often pricier than their ICE counterparts. And mostly VIN-locked. Even with all that data, Tesla Insurance can’t escape the gravitational pull of high repair costs — especially as increased vandalism and accident rates tick up in urban markets.

[mostlylong]

A statement on valuation:

@mostlylong

P/E about 100, Toyota P/E is 7.

If tsla is valued 3x Toyota Motors, then tsla still has 80% to fall. Tsla price is 215, 80% decline puts it at 43. Seems very far away.

Let’s try a round number. I think tsla can fall to 100 (disclaimer: very random number).

Data on business performance and valuation:

Many Wall Street analysts say the car business is worth less than $100 a share, or a third of Tesla’s roughly $300 share price. “Most investors value Tesla’s core auto business at between $50 and $100/share,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a May research note.
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Tesla’s profit fell 71% in the first quarter, and it only managed a $409 million profit because the company sold $595 million in regulatory credits to other carmakers. When it reports second-quarter earnings on July 23, analysts expect a roughly 10% decline in sales and a profit drop of nearly 20%.

Actual market pricing today sees more than a car business.

[syke6]

I’m sure we all saw the Q2 delivery numbers. Down about 13%. But there is some bad news on the Optimus front as well. Parts deliveries have been paused pending a redesign:

According to Tesla’s feedback to suppliers, Optimus still faces hardware challenges, including overheating in some joint motors, low load capacity in dexterous hands, short lifespan of transmission components, and limited battery life. ..

…A Tesla insider revealed that Optimus is currently only used for moving batteries in Tesla’s battery workshops, with efficiency less than half that of human workers, and has not yet been deployed for more complex tasks like car assembly.

Tesla Reportedly Pauses Optimus Robot Production Amid Design Overhaul

[mostlylong]

@syke6

I’m sure we all saw the Q2 delivery numbers. Down about 13%. But there is some bad news on the Optimus front as well.

There is hype and there is reality.

Hype

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had grand ambitions for the Cybertruck with planned production capacity of 250,000 vehicles annually. Millions of people registered for the unique electric pickup truck.

Reality

Tesla had 12,881 deliveries of the Other category in the first quarter, which would likely mean around 5,000 Cybertrucks delivered in that quarter.

It seems (maybe) Tesla went too much Hummer and not enough F-150 and ended up with a niche vehicle.

That seems like a ton of design work and effort and manufacturing set up to sell 20,000 units per year.

[mostlylong]

GM takes meaningful EV market share from Tesla.

Not sure anyone would have predicted (in last few years) writing that statement in 2025.

Tesla had a great headstart in EVs, but others are catching up, especially first 6 months of this year.

Tesla said it delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter globally through June, down 13% from 443,956 deliveries in the same period a year ago. Tesla does not break out deliveries by region, so sales estimates conducted by the Automotive News Data Center put Tesla’s second-quarter U.S. sales around 125,000, down 16.7%. For the first six months of 2025, Tesla sold 255,000 in the U.S., down 13% from first half of 2024.

GM, meanwhile, sold 78,167 electric cars in the United States for the first half of the year, an 111% increase from midyear 2024. Of those, 46,280 were sold in the second quarter.

Through June of this year, GM’s estimated EV market share reached 13% — but it could still grow as the year progresses, and Tesla’s may yet still shrink, according to Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

[captainccs]

@mostlylong

If tsla is valued 3x Toyota Motors, then tsla still has 80% to fall. Tsla price is 215, 80% decline puts it at 43. Seems very far away.

Was $215 on June 10? By July 3 it was $315.35. Up 46.7% in less than a month? Who would have thought?

@mostlylong

P/E about 100, Toyota P/E is 7.

Listen to the Market, Toyota was last decades’ story. Tesla is the Future. BTW, my last three cars were Toyotas, great cars.

The Captain

[mostlylong]

@captainccs

Was $215 on June 10? By July 3 it was $315.35. Up 46.7% in less than a month? Who would have thought?

Anyone could have thought that.

Tesla is volatile and has been trading in a large range for 4.5 years. Today’s price is about the same as early 2021.

@captainccs

Listen to the Market, Toyota was last decades’ story.

The market tells me Toyota is the world’s largest automaker. And RAV4 recently edged Model Y for world’s best selling vehicle.

[mostlylong]

@captainccs

My suggestion [is] to look at the sales, revenue, and P&L numbers, they are atheistic. LOL

How are Q3 2025 sales looking, one month in?

July vehicle sales estimates

Europe

July figures are seeping in from Europe, and they show that Tesla registrations checked in 41.6% lower compared to the prior year, despite sales of electric vehicles (EVs) surging across the Continent.

It’s a continuation of the sales spiral the EV maker faced during the first half of 2025. And the problem is that the decline was supposedly due to the new Model Y being in limited supply – but the issues appear to be deeper than that.

China

Its sales of China-made EVs dropped 8.4% in July compared to the prior year. That was a reversal from the small gain Tesla posted in June, which at the time reversed an eight-month losing streak.

[MarkR]

25Q3 will not be a very useful comparison. That’s because the tax credit is going away on 30-Sep-25 and sales are apparently going gangbusters in the USA. Tesla dropped two major incentives a few days, that’s almost always a sign that sales are robust. Once 25Q4 arrives, we will begin to see “normal” sales with minimal tax incentives.

[captainccs]

@mostlylong

The market tells me Toyota is the world’s largest automaker. And RAV4 recently edged Model Y for world’s best selling vehicle.

My last three cars (1985 - 2019) were Toyotas.

We are talking about different markets

• mostylong: transportation
• captainccs: stocks

My point about Toyota is that ICE cars are a dead end but I also realize that Japaneses tend to be inscrutable when they want to. I know this from personal experience. “Hai” does not always mean “Yes” only “I understand.”

The Captain

[mostlylong]

@captainccs

We are talking about different markets

• mostylong: transportation
• captainccs: stocks

My point about Toyota is that ICE cars are a dead end but I also realize that Japaneses tend to be inscrutable when they want to.

Stock performance over any time period may not align with business performance.

Following your suggestion to look at sales, Q3 sales as indicated by July registrations in Europe and China are heading the wrong direction.

Here’s what the facts are:
Toyota is global leader in vehicle sales, with many hybrids and plugin hybrids existing and more on the way. Toyota is also bringing EVs online.

[mostlylong]

@MarkR

25Q3 will not be a very useful comparison. That’s because the tax credit is going away on 30-Sep-25 and sales are apparently going gangbusters in the USA. Tesla dropped two major incentives a few days, that’s almost always a sign that sales are robust.

Here’s what I found for Tesla in US, July 2025, another big decline.

Among U.S. automakers, July sales were strong across the board: GM up 11.9% Y/Y, Ford up 10.4%, and Stellantis up 12.7%. Ford and Lincoln launched a promotion starting July 8 offering no-interest financing for 48 months, with no money down and no payments required for the first 90 days (valid through September 2). On the other hand, Tesla sales declined 20.9%, marking the ninth consecutive month of y/y decline.

Among Japanese brands, Toyota posted a 20.9% increase, driven by strong sales of compact crossover SUVs like the RAV4, Corolla Cross, as well as midsize models such as the Grand Highlander and 4Runner. Honda saw a modest 0.2% increase, while Nissan declined 0.3%.

Subaru and Mazda saw y/y growth for the first time in three months, rising 4.5% and 13.0%, respectively. Mazda benefited from strong SUV sales, particularly the CX-5. Subaru was led by the Crosstrek and Forester. Mitsubishi plunged 35.5%.

Among Korean automakers, Hyundai rose 14.4% and Kia 11.9%, both setting new July records. Hyundai has now posted y/y gains for 10 consecutive months.

Among European brands, VW rose 6.2%, BMW 7.1%, while Mercedes-Benz fell 14.7%, Audi 19.8%, and Volvo 18.9%.

[Goofyhoofy]

@MarkR

25Q3 will not be a very useful comparison. That’s because the tax credit is going away on 30-Sep-25 and sales are apparently going gangbusters in the USA.

I’ll say. Q3 will be all over the place. From Barron’s:

One factor dragging on the stock on Tuesday could be fresh data out of Europe showing that Tesla sales had plummeted there. Deliveries fell 55% from a year ago in Germany and 60% from a year ago in the U.K., according to trade bodies.

[captainccs]

@mostlylong

Stock performance over any time period may not align with business performance.

Agree but that’s not the central point.

The auto market data tells the past. With no paradigm shift, trust the auto market to evolve incrementally.

Stock market data predicts the future. With a paradigm shift expect disruption. It’s not Tesla vs. Toyota, it’s electricity vs. fossil fuels, it’s Climate Crisis vs. No Crisis.

The Captain

[ubn]

Its autonomy vs manual driving.