Tesla/BYD Still Dominant But Losing Market Share

Tesla is still #1 in US & EU in market share but is losing market share. Tesla is #2 in China but its market share is on the decline.
Tesla is still selling beaucoup number of EVs.

  • Tesla’s share of the EV market fell to 49.7%. This is the first time Tesla’s U.S. EV market share has fallen below 50%. The figure is down significantly from 60% in Q1 2023, and 79% of U.S. EV market share in 2020.

https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/europes-ev-market-update-may-2024

  • Tesla: Despite a drop in May, Tesla remains the market leader with a 10.5% share, followed by BMW at 10.3%.

BYD-22% China market share
Tesla 13.2% China market share

I suspect BYD’s market share is falling in China also. But they remain a dominant player there.

So why are dominant EV manufacturers are losing market share?
It’s the competition. Quite a few new EVs entered the market place in 2024 and even more will be entering in 2025.

BYD has a market capitalization of $100 billion

Tesla has a market capitalization of $734 billion.

TSLA 98 p/e
BYD 23 p/e

Are TSLA & BYD fairly valued? Overvalued? Undervalued?
Which would be the better investment today?

With Chinese stocks, you don’t anything and financials are murky.
Stay away.

One needs to be financially savvy which I ain’t.

Warren Buffet bought a 10% stake in BYD that has worked out for him.
But he has been selling off his BYD locking in capital gains for the past 2 years.

Charlie Munger characterized the investment in BYD as “lurching around the track trying to hold onto my hat.”

Buffett has been the more conservative of the two. I have to wonder if BYD is just too risky for him.

Market Share Innumeracy!

Say Tesla sells one EV, the only EV. 100% market share.

Next month Tesla sells four EVs and BYD sells one. Tesla’s market share drops to 80% despite a four fold increase in revenue. How useful is that market share data?

The above is a growth situation. Once a market is saturated, market share numbers do make sense. What this means is that they should not be reporting EV market share but total car market share.

The Captain

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Amazon is not just a book store.

Tesla does not just not make cars.
If you don’t understand this or don’t agree, don’t invest in Tesla.
Many other stocks out there.

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