This is a great summation, at the same time glosses over some side trips which may or may not have been fruitful. The Roadster, for instance. Was that really necessary to get to the mass market car? (I don’t know, I suspect it was fun and that much was learned along the way, it’s just not clear to me that it was a necessary step.) [Not a criticism; when you are out front in a field you are going to do some things that don’t pan out.]
I put FSD in the same category. Maybe it will come true - someday - but it’s really not ready for prime time today or even in the near future so far as I can see. It might be close, but close doesn’t count when you’re hurtling down the road at 60mph in a 4,000 pound metal container and there are pedestrians and 12,000 pound trucks about.
I must say I don’t see the problem with Xiaomi producing an EV. I mean, why not? There are over 100 manufacturers in China doing so (down from 500 a few years ago.) When the the US industry began there were more than 200 manufacturers, and it wasn’t always “the first” who survived. There were many who came later who did nicely, at least for half a century or so. There were plenty who started early who got knocked out because they chose the wrong path for dealer network or styling or whatever.
Interesting that Xiaomi’s entry is not being built by Xiaomi itself, but is a contract product. At the beginning of the US industry there were nameplates such as Gardiner, Fidelity, Stearns, Chandler, Regal and dozens of others (most were wiped out in the Great Depression). Many of those relied on at least some of the parts (engines, notably, but also others) being manufactured by others in a sort-of contract manufacturing scheme. Eventually (I assume) the idea is to take over everything but as a way to enter the field without all the risk, it seems a viable way to do it.
I am sure that Apple could have sold a bunch of cars just by slapping an Apple badge on them. I’m not saying that would have been a good idea if the car couldn’t maintain the Apple-ness quotient of the brand, but I would still have liked to see what they came up with (the toaster and no-steering-wheel options aside.) Indeed, a competently manufactured vehicle with some engineering prowess behind it could still make for a compelling entry. All of the marketing would be pre-sold.