The Robots are Coming!

BREAKING: NVIDIA DROPS Bombshell DEMOS of 9 Humanoids!

As a Tesla investor I though for a time that Tesla had a clear advantage over the competition. With Nvidia providing the training the odds have changed. While watching the video I was thinking how this might impact Tesla.

Using history I went back to the coming of age of the Personal Computer (PC). It was IBM that put the stamp of approval on the innovation in 1984 when it entered (half-assed) into the market. The result was

  • 2 operating systems (Windoze vs. Mac)
  • 2 hardware options (Intel x86, vs. whatever Macs used, Motorola 680x0, IBM, Intel, ARM)
  • There were other things like Sun and Linux but they were motly just noise.

As investors history says that the money is in software.


What this tells me is that the nine hardware entrants are irrelevant, the competition for Tesla are Nvidia and Open AI.

The advantage Tesla has is their vertical integration, Tesla does not need customers, it has lots of factories to put Optimus to work, and in-house manufacturing of Optimus. This reduces the logistics problem of dealing with multiple parties.

The Captain

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Based on the news AMD, ARM, and TSLA were hit hard at the market open but have rebounded nicely. I have short call positions in AMD and ARM expiring this Friday. The Nvidia announcement brought the shares down close to the strike price which is where I want them (180, 125).


How can anyone deny that Humanoid Robots are actually being made? 9 humanoid robots from 9 different companies. This is not an outlier but something that is actually happening and NVDA is going to propel this into the main stream.



Those who deny the existence of humanoid robots may be humanoid robots themselves.


Jetson-thor, Groot, etc…WOW…how much are those royalties going to cost? LOL. I actually wish they weren’t trying to be cute, makes me sus.


Is there anyone out there denying that humanoid robots are actually being made? I mean, Asimo’s been around for two decades, and Boston Dynamic’s Atlas videos always went pretty viral.

Several of us disagreed whether humanoid robots are anywhere near being ready to be a commercial product, but not whether they are actually being made.


Right lol.


Jan 30

Why do they need a humanoid form to work with humans? Humans work with robots that don’t have a humanoid form all the time. Many factories are filled with robots (and other machines). Tesla’s factories are filled with robots.


I recommend Martha Wells Murder Bot series. All Systems Red is the first book. They are a mix of novels and novellas and explore human, augmented, human, and cyborg relations in a world where corporations are governments. Becky Chambers’ Monk and Robot series beginning with Psalm for the Wild Built is also a great look at robot human relations after the robots decide humans are not worth working for.

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Why humanoid robots?

Uhm, take AI with robotics and add an intense interest in life extension --“immortality” – amongst the Siliconistas of every nation and you get:

If you want to be tougher stronger hyper-sensitive and quasi-eternal, you start by looting proven humanoid robots that already have the capabilities you want, can replace your biological parts with little alteration, and are already designed as human…oid.

Give it another 5 - 10 years and a CyMuskborg might be leaving for Mars.

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Yep. I think you misunderstood the argument. Of course humanoid robots are and have been made. Asimo’s been around for a quarter-century. We talked about them in that thread. The discussion was about whether humanoid robots have a use case yet - whether there’s any commercially viable reason to make a robot in a humanoid form (other than aesthetics - plenty of uber-rich people will pay for a high-tech “toy” for a while).

It’s easy to see the benefit of humanoid robots for Nvidia. Generate excitement! Sell more chips! But still nothing there showing why these robots need to have legs rather than wheels, or have their trunks shaped like a torso and head rather than a cylinder.


That is my whole point all along. You have said that there is no use point, that it is just a fad. But now there is 9 separate companies doing it and NVDA just made a foundry and training facility to train robots.

Amazon is using humanoid robots in it’s facility as we speak. Humanoid robots are being implemented in Mercedes assembly line. All of this is happening now and is just the start. We haven’t even begun the hype cycle on humanoid robots, when it gets here , and then it deflates doesn’t mean that people won’t be using humanoid robots, it just means it is starting its next leg of being implemented into human society.

NVDA doesn’t need to sell more chips, they only need to make more chips. They sell all they make. What you keep forgetting is that there is more than just NVDA involved in this. NVDA doesn’t even make the robots.


Sure. Doesn’t mean there’s a use case for them yet. There were lots of companies making 3D TV’s. Quite a few companies made smart augmented reality glasses back in the day. I can’t remember how many “Blockchain of X” companies there were. Sometimes the tech just doesn’t have the capabilities yet to do what it needs to do to be useful.

This is not all that uncommon. There are loads of examples of people trying to bring to market a product that just needs a decade or more of improved technology before it can really do what needs to be done to be a viable commercial product. Early PDA’s in the mid 1980’s, the EV1 in the mid-1990’s…both would eventually become widespread products, but you couldn’t really build those products with the level of tech available then. The PDA wasn’t really ready until there were significant advances in touchscreens and computing power, and EV’s needed better batteries (something better than lead-acid batteries).

Lots of companies experimenting with humanoid robots, seeing what they can make them do. Doesn’t mean any of them will develop a product with a good enough brain to do enough to justify the humanoid form.


Amazon and Mercedes already proved you wrong.

Lots of companies making computers, lots of companies making electric cars, lots of companies making ICE engines. But none of them have proven a use case yet? That seems really weird to say, doesn’t it.

When they have implemented them into their production process it is no longer an experiment. The experiment was the trial period.

They haven’t proved me wrong. They’re trying the things out. It’s not like they’re deploying them at scale, like they do with all the tens of thousands of other robots Amazon already deploys, or the thousands that Mercedes does. A pilot project is just that - a pilot project.

Sure - only because they’ve made and sold millions and millions of those things. We know a computer with the capabilities we can build into a computer ,is useful for lots of things. But a humanoid robot with the capabilities we can put into the “brain” today, or even the immediate future?


Actually that is exactly what they are doing. Like I said it is no longer a pilot project. It is now in the implementation phase.

But back when IBM came out with the first computers people were scoffing about people having computers in their homes, now I have 4 computers. People always get it wrong and until it is completely implemented in every fabric of society they scoff. Then when it is completely implemented they say “Sure but everyone could see that it was something that we all would need.” It’s just like the electric car with Musk. Everyone thought he was going to fail until he didn’t.

Ahh maybe that is why you are having a hard time seeing what is already done. You expect the Humanoid robots to be like the Terminator or act exactly like Humans? You expect them to have “brains” that can match a human at every possible, conceivable, action? Well then you are right, they don’t have those types of Humanoid robots.


They don’t always get it wrong. When the Segway came out, people scoffed that it didn’t meet any real need, relative to the price. And the people were right. When the Google Glass came out, people scoffed that it had a bunch of intrusive aspects that weren’t worth the limited capabilities it offered. And the people were right. I won’t get into all the many things that blockchain was expected to be able to do, where people pointed out that blockchain didn’t add anything of value. Sometimes, products just don’t match what they would need to have in order to be useful.

Not at all. I merely point out that unless they have a sufficient amount of capability, there’s no benefit to them having a humanoid form compared to a purpose-built robot. The brain doesn’t have to act exactly like a human - or even similar to a human. But it has to have the ability to do the sorts of tasks that a human form is necessary for, in a way that creates value for the owner.

So, for example, if what the owner needs is for a robot to do one thing, in one location, at all times, a humanoid form isn’t necessary (trivially, it won’t need legs, and almost certainly doesn’t need to have the body shaped with a differentiated torso and head). If what the owner needs is for a robot to be able to do multiple things in different locations, the robot has to have the “brain” to let it do those multiple things in different locations. I think we’re still quite a long ways from the “brain” part, which makes the “body” part rather useless.


Solar roads
New Coke
Supersonic and hypersonic transport
The Master Race
The hunt for “Weapons of Mass Destruction”
Fyre Festival
The Arch DeLuxe

Lots more, too. Just had to sit and think about all the great predictions and products that never came true. My favorite, which I save for last, was how the Internet was going to make people smarter, and we would all come to understand everyone better.


One application where a humanoid robot might make sense is in the personal care field. That doesn’t mean it has to be exactly humanoid, but more or less. For example caretaking of elders. If a humanoid robot can help keep a person clean, keeping their abode clean, watch over them for signs of falling, make sure they eat properly, make sure they are adequately intellectually stimulated for their level, etc. If a robot can help you out of bed, help you clean yourself properly, assist you to prevent falling, etc then why not? In fact, I’m pretty sure a robot would be far more vigilant than a human.

Another application might be lifeguarding. I only mention it because I swim a few times a week, and on Monday I noticed that the one lifeguard they had on duty stepped outside briefly while I was swimming laps. When a group of kids come to the pools, they add a second lifeguard of course. A robot lifeguard would surely be more vigilant that a human one.

As far as operating machinery, I don’t see why the human form is necessary. Most modern machinery can be directly operated via “wire”, those controls you see were simply added for us humans, due to our form, but they aren’t really a necessary part of the machinery. For example, a robot operated vehicle won’t need the steering wheel, the brake pedal, or the accelerator, because it would operate those devices (steering, brakes, and accelerator) directly.

Fire, wheel, compass, sails, nails, steam engines horses, dogs, cotton mills, compass, electricity, nuclear power, telephone, automobile, camera, printer, computers, abacus, vaccines (for those who take them), saddle, shoes, clothing, you get the idea.