So much Ra Ra on the SA and RB boards on this one.
I sold half today at 212$. The fundamentals just don’t add up and there is too much optimism. The boards feel like the NFLX boards a few years ago and the company can do no wrong. But this is priced in and growth is going to be limited by supply constraints. The Giga factory are priced in and an offering is coming.
I would be very surprised not to get a better opportunity on this one. If I am wrong I still have half my position and that is OK. 26B companies don’t up in a straight line.
I tend to agree. I am only following this company sporadically and do not own any shares. I wished I’d picked some up in late November when it dipped down in the 120’s.
For now, at these prices, I’ll continue to spectate.
I agree with your thoughts however, the shareholders are dealing with a more unique problem with TSLA as regards the concerns. That is, instead of dealing with demand issues, TSLA is dealing almost exclusively with supply issues.
Go to your local BMW store today…you can drive away today with your new BMW.
Go to your TSLA store today…you can order one that should get to you in 3-4 months!
One can only imagine how many they could sell if they could “simply” provide them.
That is why the “gigafactory” is so important IMO. If you recall, Elon suggested that to provide the lower cost $35,000 mass market tesla, he would need to essentially double the worldwide capacity for batteries!
So his vision and the hopes/dreams of the shareholders, rests largely if not solely on the gigafactory…which we should learn more about in next month?
I think we did not back of napkin calculations on moderate growth of sales, and it did support a very impressive stock appreciation.
I recently posted this on the TSLA Board regarding my large position and conviction in Tesla (and SCTY).
I found it interesting that Musk made mention of integration with the solar industry vis-a-vis the Gigafactory announcement that TSLA will soon be making.
I am not selling a single share of either company.
My TSLA represents 15% of my portfolio, mostly through appreciation (with avg cost of $33).
I made a determination during the Summer 2013 run-up that I am not selling a single share. I believe in the paradigm shift to EVs, Elon Musk’s mission and leadership, and the Company’s execution ability.
I also have a 5% position in Solar City (w/ avg cost in 30s). They are uniquely addressing solar adoption for the masses. I believe their ‘first mover advantage’ (if it can be called that) combined with excellent management, and Musk as Chairman, positions them well for continued rapid growth and execution.
I also believe these 2 companies may become further operationally intertwined going forward with battery sharing and energy storage.
These are two exciting stories that I have high conviction about, so I don’t mind having higher allocations to them.
Right now everyone on the Tesla boards is saying that they sold half or all of their positions and is waiting for a pull back to $150 or $170 to buy back in. I hear NOONE, but NOONE saying they expect it to go to $250 or $300.
To me, that is not a top. I remember the same thing when TSLA shot up to $100 and everyone sold out to buy back at $60. It never got below $88 again. I’d guess that barring some unforeseen bad news there is no chance of going to $150 short term. But that’s just my opinion.
My biggest thing about TSLA is that the business still seems extremely risky to me. The Model S is a big success, but it’s only 1 product, and probably the least important one in the long-term story. Ultimately, Tesla will have to be successful building a mass-market product, and I personally don’t think the ability to build a successful luxury product automatically translates into the ability to build a successful mass-market product. That’s not to say they won’t be successful, of course, but there doesn’t seem (to me) to be very much appreciation of that risk right now.
Basically, I feel like we’ve been delivered a very significant share of the reward at this point without having had to shoulder all of the risk. That’s not to pay short shrift to Tesla’s accomplishments thus far – they’re substantial – but I think one could easily argue that the luxury space was the easiest for Tesla to sell into (which is why it was a brilliant move to begin there). I think the company’s most difficult challenges are still ahead of it, and I would want to see a potential financial reward commensurate with that.
Saul, I believe you’ve said you want to see a potential reward of 300%+ going forward in your investments. Do you still see that for TSLA over any reasonable time period?
Right now everyone on the Tesla boards is saying that they sold half or all of their positions and is waiting for a pull back to $150 or $170 to buy back in. I hear NOONE, but NOONE saying they expect it to go to $250 or $300.
To me, that is not a top. I remember the same thing when TSLA shot up to $100 and everyone sold out to buy back at $60. It never got below $88 again. I’d guess that barring some unforeseen bad news there is no chance of going to $150 short term. But that’s just my opinion.
Saul,
The Hold call over at Stock Advisor has probably influenced thinking … resulting in I will sell now and wait for the pull back type of approach. I think Rule Breaker made the right call of leaving TSLA as is and let the story play out.
I 'm still holding on to my shares and waiting for an opportunity to write puts. TSLA puts have been very profitable for me. I made almost as much as I 'm up on TSLA, and I 'm up about 100+%!
Neil, I would like to see that when I start an investment, but I don’t continually reevaluate my investments to see if they still have 300% in front of them. With TSLA, they are so imaginative that who knows what they will be doing. They are currently providing drive trains (I think it is) to other auto makers. They also see their giga battery factory supplying batteries to the solar industry, for example. What they are talking about is that now solar panels make excess electricity during sunny days, and have to sell it to the utilities cheap, but don’t have it at night. With storage batteries, the excess electricity would be stored for use after dark, and on rainy days. It’s ingenious and it’s big. Like I said, who knows what else they’ll be doing. They made 33 cents last quarter, up from what I recorded as a loss of 65 cents the year before. They could make a bunch even in 2014, certainly at least $1.50 (which is only an average of 37.5 cents per quarter). That still makes them expensive, but not as expensive.
They seem to always under-promise and over-achieve.
I have high expectations for Tesla as well, and it’s been a huge help with my portfolio.
However, I can’t help noticing that the more great options and aspirations that the company has, I get more and more worried that if anything should ever happen to Elon Musk, the stock will tank. What if he gets diagnosed with some serious illness? There is that risk, and it has been increasing IMHO.
Conversely, I wonder how AAPL stock would do if Tim Cook was diagnosed with a serious illness. Maybe no reaction, so I guess that’s good since I am long AAPL.
I sold half today at 212$. The fundamentals just don’t add up and there is too much optimism. … I would be very surprised not to get a better opportunity on this one.
There’s optimism for good reason.
What happens when the new X, E and Gen III cars start rolling off of the production line? And don’t we think that the oil and automobile companies are just a bit worried because of the EV’s and the Hybrids?
As Saul said, “…they are so imaginative that who knows what they will be doing.”
I’m not selling. Have ever since been sorry I sold some shares bought at 150 and 160. Big mistake - and all because I got scared.
Right now everyone on the Tesla boards is saying that they sold half or all of their positions and is waiting for a pull back to $150 or $170 to buy back in. I hear NOONE, but NOONE saying they expect it to go to $250 or $300.
To me, that is not a top. I remember the same thing when TSLA shot up to $100 and everyone sold out to buy back at $60. It never got below $88 again. I’d guess that barring some unforeseen bad news there is no chance of going to $150 short term. But that’s just my opinion.
Wow, I wrote this a couple of days ago when TSLA was $199, and now it’s $246! I don’t usually hit timing like that, but it’s gratifying.
I am more than fine with my decision. I have half my shares and they are paid for by the half I sold.
If I recall Saul sold a bunch of shares a few months ago stated in another post, wasn’t it in 160’s or so?
I suspect still, that I get another crack at some below 200$. Time will tell. If not, that is great! I still have a position.
good discussion. This certainly appears to be a paradigm shifting company, but eventually the numbers have to add up, unless they keep coming up with new paradigm’s!
Gator, I started buying back at $142 (just a tiny 1% of a full position). Then I doubled my purchase size every $4, so I bought 2% at $138, 4% at $134, 8% at $130, 16% at $126, and 32% at $122. It hit $118 but I chickened out on buying more and ended up with about 63% of a full position added.
Haven’t sold any this time yet. It’s too stressful timing the swings.
Wow, excited to see your new allocation of positions in your stock portfolio Saul!!! Getting ready to sell my container store position and buy more stocks that are working in this environment. Do you still own Bofi? I’ve been in since $46 but a very small position. Thinking about adding. Thanks.