The first time I actually saw the Mona Lisa I can remember being somewhat disappointed. First off you have to sort of maneuver yourself through the ever present throng of folks crowding around it - and then, its a tiny thing - well by Texas standards anyway. So theres that. And I have always wondered if she didn’t have that smile would she still be the Mona Lisa or would she be someone else. Just another ancient painting or such. I dunno. But what I do know is that in regards to NVDA we can say this:
While NVDA most certainly does not have Bettie Davis eyes - it does indeed have that Mona Lisa smile. In fact, currently - and that is to say; as of today, right now, NVDA is the cocaine drug of choice of the burgeoning, euphoric AI tsunami.
Have you ever seen one of those African Savannah documentaries? The ones that overlay the everyday lives of all the savannah residents with the feast and famine dry and wet seasons. If so - then you know that every monsoon season of feast is followed by a dry season of trials and tribulation. We are officially in the beginning phase of the AI wet season.
Consider - at the peak of the non-wetness of the dry season all the animals cluster/gather and otherwise coagulate at the last remaining pools of water. The ones where all the Hippos are jammed up together in not much water; but rather, a sort of sludge/soupy like mixture constituted of a lot of semi-thick mud mixed with prodigious amounts of hippo poo. Thats actually the exact scene of the wet season bubble having completely popped - so to speak. Something like this:
But before that there’s the wet season that begins with a muddy puddle or two - that develop into slight trickles of wild free water that then become the flowing streams - that matriculate into wide banked creeks; that, surge into roaring rivers that produce much flooding - and after the initial flooding and turbulence the feasting begins.
And thats where NVDA comes in. Early… early this morning at the ungodly hour of 5:30 Am or so, one of my favorite subscription guys over on SA came out with his opinion on NVDA. And doesn’t every growth analyst known to mankind have one - as well as everyone of us also to I suppose? And pretty though it was in praise of what the company is achieving and its momentous ER, along with what it may, or may not portend to the coming of the AI thingy wet season - what he concluded was what exactly what one would expect from a seasoned investor who has seen rotational seasons of market triumph and tragedy: Refrain from chasing NVDA. Why?
Well… and now transitioning to my very own porous and fading in-and-out logic and reasoning, because while NVDA is certainly AI King, it is just the beginning of the AI feast of plenty. And while we have seen a few mud puddles forming in the highlands (think AI, PLTR, UPST etc) one could certainly premise with much accuracy and wisdom that yesterday NVDA lit the fuse to the full-on AI gold rush. As such there could be a great many AI movement winners and before all the monsoon wet season flooding ends up falling over Victoria Falls.
But when all that water does indeed fall over Victoria Falls - it is the scene of the bubble bursting in a free falling cascade of investment dollars; which - given the FOMO frenzy and nature of investors, is simply the natural order of things. And thats exactly why this morning I decided to let things settle in a bit and refrain from immediately chasing NVDA. The Great AI Wet Season and Monsoon Tsunami is upon us and will undoubtedly produce much profit for all along the way. No need to hurry.
Eyes to the front - control your breathing and emotions - mark your targets when they come.
All the Best,
BDH Investing