The actual costs of the shutdown will be staggering. This affects our productivity. If you read down to childcare and women with children to see how it affects them you will see a backward movement into poverty and hunger for millions of children and women primarily.
There has always been a profound lack of caring for women. This is that in the current day.
Every tax cut was bull that really never materialized. Instead, pensions, benefits, pay, and jobs were cut. We could not have been lied to more in the last 40 years.
The budget impasse is about cutting spending to cut taxes. It won’t happen even if a majority wanted it to happen. It is just lying endlessly.
Those who play in this economics are enraged. Maybe acting enraged. The idea is to force their will on the rest of us. That really means blaming poor women and children.
It is idiotic to think supply-side economic lies have ever worked. It is pure anger about paying taxes. It is infantile anger.
I was shocked to hear (on the PBS Newshour) that half the children in the U.S. receive WIC support. They will suffer if WIC is shut off during a government shutdown. That’s an immense proportion of our future worker population to damage. (Not to mention humanitarian suffering.)
These arguments are never about the spending. They are always about who benefits from the spending. Cut off Ukraine, and watch the money go for another tax cut for the “JCs”. Cut off funding for NATO, so that money can go to the “JCs” too. And, of course, cut off all the socialistical spending, so that money can go to the “JCs” too.
Honestly Steve a majority of the JCs do not want it this way. They want the green factory buildout. They want to stop the lies. They want to pay people.
But if you come from a poorer state…the JCs are backward.
The big battles between Hamilton and Washington on one side and Jefferson and Madison on the other were between global thinking for a strong central government and rural slaveholders for a weak government.
The slaveholders Washington, Jefferson, and Madison were poor because using slaves to farm was not making them money. They did not trust the bankers who were funding their plantations.
Washington was fighting for the country to survive and did not like slavery.
Jefferson never fought. He lived way beyond his means and died with a lot of debt.
The Majority Leader in the House Madison represented the farmers and southern slaveholders.
Hamilton wanted to tie the nation together with a strong federal government.
The battle never ends. Local politics or econ if you like are bad by definition. Global economics is defined differently and can have an upstanding reason.
Locally things are always $uck. Who is paid enough? Globally we make things better.
In Congress, we can not at this moment think locally about economics. But there is no getting the message to everyone in Congress. But none of them are offering with a label that is supply-side economics.
The market is sinking away. You are seemingly buoyant. I hope you have cash for next year.
You can quote me but you are the one who is wrong.
I have also said we will see a down action here in the markets. But that the markets will recover for a while. The bottom in our markets is not in sight yet. That bottom has nothing to do with the government shutdown.
Wow. It isn’t your prediction against my prediction because I think it is to complicated to make a prediction. So really you are just competing against yourself and you have made two predictions on shutdowns and they have both been completely wrong. But like everything else, instead of admitting it you give a word salad.
If the government does not close down I will admit it.
If a close down is not very significant in the first month or two I will admit it.
I have no problem being wrong and admitting it. I am among the very rare people you will meet online who readily admit when he is wrong.
You are wrong right now. You want to admit it? Would you? Or would you go about your business as if your blank is good on the internet?
You are wrong because you do not know if I am wrong in the future.
So I guess you were just projecting when you made this statement.
The government did not close down. But the markets are down which was the point. Will they be up on Monday?
Is the first month or two over with? No. The temporary reprieve is 45 days.
My focus is on Congress one moment, on the economy the next, and on the markets.
The bond market does not like any of this stuff. Does not matter what dates Congress puts on it.
The economy is slowing and that is a major focus. What Congress does in simply voting to see what happens 45 days from now is a minor event. As far as you being right…only for the next 45 days? Then what? There probably is some back-door deal for funding Ukraine or there is money in the Pentagon for that. But that otherwise won’t go without major problems. Yet that is not the market’s problem.
The equities market are looking at the bond yields. The FCFs or the DCFs whatever you like point to crazy valuations in equities. That is the real focus.
Now did I expect the government to stay open? I expect some form of closed gov…yes…I did not expound on that because this is not a political board. You know that right? You do not seem to know that. I thought the government shutdown would be short.
The bigger problem is the constant threat to the bond market. Giving this 45 more days is nonsense. There needs to be a political resolve to buildout the factories and change as a society. You squabbling over government shutdowns yes or no is minor drool.
You are wrong about the financial and economic impacts. You are wrong about this has been solved somehow. You are focused on the BULL Blank instead of the results.
I do not need you to admit anything about how wrong you are in your focus. I do not live and die worrying about your opinions. I expect very few people here to ever admit when they are wrong.
Andy honestly, the reason you are frustrated in your dialog, you are looking at this as political. You do not do politics well. You are not thriving on it.
Frustrated? There you go projecting again. You have been wrong with everyone of your predictions, but like anyone who tries to make anyone believe , That they can predict the future. They always come back and say just wait, it isn’t over yet. Well Leap it’s over, the government didn’t default, again. Now I finally understand why you keep projecting onto others.
You found out an hour ago that I admitted where I was wrong.
You still have not admitted where you were wrong.
Default? I never said that. You were wrong to attribute that to me.
Markets failing? The bond market is. You were wrong you think things are only tied to a default.
Are the equity markets following down? Started to for now. Might rally on Monday. But have a lot of way to go down. You were wrong because it has nothing to do with the government shutting down one way or the other but are challenging me on this when I do not believe it is the leading reason.
Related to the government default? Not directly. You are putting words in my mouth. The bond yields are causing market problems. You are wrong to think this is nothing. The risk premium in the yields is the smallest part of a yield but at this point has an outsized importance to the markets.
Now it is your turn to decide if have you been at all wrong.
You wanted to see if I meant I would admit I was wrong. Let’s see if you also admit in public that you were wrong.
Interesting observation wrt “poorer state”. Looking at 2023 per capita GDP, Michigan ranks 39th.
Are the “JCs” backward? I have commented before that the (L&Ses) that ran the Michigan legislature for nearly 40 years had one agenda: shower the “JCs” with goodies, at the expense of everyone else. Prior to the current Gov taking office, for instance, Michigan’s per capita road maintenance funding ranked 48th in the country. When the current Gov first proposed increasing road and education funding, the (L&Ses) passed their own budget, which spent the state’s surplus on another tax cut instead. The Gov vetoed the (L&S) budget.
Is the state government an aberration? When I see corporate “JCs” cutting worker pay and benefits, and hollowing out the company with underinvestment and financial trickery, to line their own pockets, I would say the “backward” JC is the future.