Keynes, the brilliant economist once said that “in the long run we are all dead.” Very profound statement because economics is a great science (my undergrad major) but the problem with economics is that it is not always the inevitable direction that economists get wrong but the duration.
My first investment was Oracle in 1998 with $1000. It doubled to $2000. Yippee me! That was a lot for me then.
I then went on in the internet bubble to do far far far better, and as has been characteristic, ended up in the best of the best, such as Qualcomm and Rambus LEAPS. Never mind the downside, that is what happens to rookies.
But from the internet bubble, to the housing crash, to the “historic” crashes of late 2018, etc., SHOCKER!!! The market continues to grow! Why? Economies continue to grow, and new disruptive technologies increase efficiencies that because of the invisible hand are required to be purchases less one ends up like Sears.
I hear over and over again, the crash, the downfall, the correction, the “party”. The “party” has been going on since well before I was born, and more recently, it picked up again in 2003, with a nasty hangover in 2009, but the next morning, if one woke up at the bottom of the crash, one started partying again as soon as 2009.
Now, since 2009 (to be more recent) if one’s investment philosophy was to protect from the crash, one missed out on a simply enormous opportunity cost for not investing in the highest quality growth companies with CAP, TAM, founder run, who are remaking the world.
Sure, it will crash again, sometime. By then you might be dead however, as that is the long run.
So what is the long run? 2003 until today? 2009 until today? 2015 until today? I am sorry, but during all of these “long runs” one thing has remained constant, disruptive, high growth, founder run, companies with CAP have provided great returns while the rest of the market insulted them as being market “darlings”.
So what is the best book, how about follow those with the actual best results. Saul comes to mind. I created a very concise litany of rules that pretty much appear to be near 100% correlation to actual results. Did not take a book, and Saul did not require a book.
Your returns would have been hampered materially by following any of those books. Why is David Gardner not listed as one of the greatest books of all time with Rule Breakers? Because success is overlooked by cynicism.
Pet peeve of mine I guess. I had an argument with a professor of mine at Duke MBA about this. He insisted the market was random and could not be beat without inside information…blimey! Very smart man, probably will write a very great investment book.