the latest in earnings

earnings boildowns - Feb/Mar-19

People seemed to appreciate this last Q, so maybe I’ll regularly write up my combined earnings notes after the quarterly deluge. One downside - this time you’re going to have read MY INTERTWINED THOUGHTS as well. It’s a touch long. It probably seems like a lot of work but hell, I already did it all for my own benefit (the note taking to keep track, and the write up of my own thoughts as a diary). I recommend searching as needed. today’s topics: MDB, OKTA, ZS, NTNX, ESTC, TTD, SHOP, AYX, TWLO, ROKU

My overall current feelings of “Saul stocks”, in a nutshell:
Top tier: TWLO, TTD, AYX, ZS, MDB.
Second tier: OKTA, SQ, ESTC, SHOP (selling).
Third tier: VEEV (selling) and NTNX (was Top Tier, now sold).
Exploring: ROKU and SMAR.

NOTE on my NOTES below: ^^ is “accelerating”, and !!! is an especially important/impressive bit IMHO.

Prior reports:


TWLO = rev +77% ^^, custs +31%, NER 148% ^^
TTD = rev +56% ^^, mobile video +130%, CTV +525%, CTV spend 9x
ZS = rev +65% ^^, NRR 118%
MDB = rev +71% ^^, custs +130%, Atlas rev +400%, NER 120%
AYX = rev +57%, NRR 132%, custs +38%
OKTA = rev +50%, custs +40%, NER 120%
SQ = rev +52%, adj rev +64%, GPV +29%, Cash app MAUs +114%
ESTC = rev +70%, sub custs +14% seq, NER 130%
SHOP = rev +54%, sub rev +42%, merchants +35%, Plus +45%
NTNX = rev +48%, subs +112%, custs +7% seq
ROKU = rev +46%, platform rev +77% ^^, active accts +40%, streaming hrs +69%, ARPU +30%


MDB - Q419
Simon take (RB):…

Revenue 85.5M +71% ^^
Sub rev +73% ^^
Svcs rev +37%
Gross Margin 70% -500bps
Adj loss -9.7M vs -14.5M

Revenue +85%
Atlas 32% of total +400% !!!
EPS -0.17

Custs 13.4k +130% !!!
Custs >1M +77% !!!
Custs >100K 557 +57%

Atlas rev +400%, 32% of rev (vs 10%, 21% last Q!!!)
Atlas custs 11.4k (4200 from mLab)
$NER 120%

  • 60M+ total downloads, w/ 20M in last 12mo ^^
  • 1.2M devs reg’d for MDB University

Me: Cutting thru the FUD around Amazon competition…
I disagreed w/ all the running for the exits, and I hope I convinced folks to stay the course on this one, because it shot up +25% on earnings and is +73% YTD.

Quick Sidebar: Amazon rightfully scares folks when it enters new industries, and beware when they enter your market on the Retail or Operations (warehouses and shipping) sides! However, in AWS they’ve been already competing against managed cloud-neutral services (aka trying to steal the customers of its customers!). Luckily for us, it’s been pretty moot, as Elastic and MongoDB have thrived FOR YEARS NOW even as AWS has put out competing products (AWS Elasticsearch Service, and DynamoDB and now DocumentDB).

My stance: I bought more, now 9% allocation and likely to go to 12% on any substantial dip again (likely!) in response to “bad news”. It’s my top performer of last 6mo (TTD, TWLO close behind). … PROS: Accelerating growth, customers more than doubling, 77% growth in >1M custs, 120% NER. Lovely double bonus of custs spending more PLUS new ones are starting higher. Future customers still coming, from 20M downloads TTM (also accelerating). CONS: Amazon! Okay, well the licensing changes are making people mad. But does it matter? Seriously, look at those numbers… 71% and ACCELLERATING. Another CON: MDB is so similar to ESTC that I like to watch the total % between them. Between them, I feel MDB has a bigger TAM but ESTC is probably more loyal as its DB provides a more unique service (huge staying power). MDB is 3x my ESTC position.

OKTA - Q419…
Ethan take:
Bert take:…
Saul take (ignore guidance!):…

Revenue 115.5M +49.6% (lower, vs 58.2% last yr)
Billing 158.8M +51.7% (lower)
Int’l only 15% of total
Sub Rev 108.5M +53%
Adj loss -4.4M (vs -8.5M)
Adj EPS -0.04 (vs -0.08)
Adj Profit 88.2M +54.8%
Gross Margins 76.38% +246bps
CFFO 10.1M
FCF 4.8M, 4.1% of rev - swung pos !!
Cash 563.8M
Custs 6100 +40% (steady at 40%)
High end custs >100k 1038 +50% !!!
$NER 120%

FY19 Rev 399M +56%
FY19 op loss 41.5M (10% of rev, vs 24% last yr)
FY19 Adj EPS -0.32 (vs -0.71)
FY19 FCF -7M (vs -37M last yr)
FY20 Guidance - Revenue 33-34% (sandbag, similar to last year 33-35% guidance vs actual 56%!!)

  • Large customers spending more. “More deals happening, and happening faster.”
  • 6k pre-built integrations (aka plugins to external systems).
  • Cloud at tipping point. Very early stage and they help transform to cloud.
  • Global trend happening everywhere. NA in lead, Asia growing fast.
  • FCF going positive in FY20. !!!
  • Acquired Azuqua for $52.5M, margins impacted -200bps. No-code, cloud-based integration platform that automates workflows between apps and services. Allows for more complex workflows (one SaaS event triggers action in another SaaS).
  • Oktaane (annual conf) moved to Q1 (was Q2 last yr), so higher expenses.
  • Expanding zero trust security framework w/ contextual access & continuous auth.

Earnings trends (RGB):
Cust growth trends (RGB):

CC take:…
sarks take:
CC find on security focus:…

My stance: I amassed 9% at end of last year. Very sticky service, but I ultimately rate its potential in the lower 1/2 of my holdings (even with the optionality of their zero-trust initiatives). ZS is a sticker service and has (and deserves) higher allocation. But I’ll likely keep it where its at for the near term. Ultimately, I think they are acquired, but not sure I’ll still be an owner by then. CONS: Growth slowing to <50% bears watching. Plenty of competition amongst top tech cos, esp cloud providers. Could SSO service be disrupted? [Not easily, 6k integrations to backfill.] PROS: Valuable service that is as sticky as the wide-variety of SaaS services it sits over (HR, Office365, email, CRM, monitoring). Starting to expand into int’l (only 15% of total) and venture more into zero-trust security and improved workflows between SaaS apps (acq Azuqua). FCF just swung pos. Cust growth steady at 40%, then spending more w/ NER 120%.

ZS - Q219
Fool coverage:…
cc notes (starrob):…

Revenue 74.3M +65% ^^, +17% seq !!
Billings 115M +74% ^^ !!!
Deferred Rev 206M +73% ^^
Net loss -3.6M (vs -6.5M)
Adj Income 11.6M
Adj EPS 0.09 (vs -0.03) swung pos
CFFO 15.7M (vs -1.1M) swung pos, 21% of rev
FCF 12M (vs -4.6M) swung pos
Opex +50.4% (way under rev growth)
Gross Margins 80% -100bps but at target
$NRR 118% (vs 122%)
Cash 340M

  • FedRAMP auth for ZIA-Govt
  • Aggressively growing to ride current cloud trends, 100 new employees this Q
  • Entered Japan last year, gaining traction and already new custs expanding (increased spend)
  • Fortune 500 auto co started with basics, 6mo later has decided to buy it all, quadrupling spend
  • That prior “largest deal ever” of $16M that occurred in Q418 already expanded spend another $11M !!!
  • customer had huge throughput needs (>10x normal) w/ SSL inspection, ZS scaled their solution in hybrid cloud
  • Overall, ZS is inspecting 65B tx each day
  • 4th gen data centers have 1Tb/s peering capacity
  • 99.999% (five-9s) availability … aka ~5 minutes of downtime/yr
  • Customer summit going on the road, from 2 cities to 11 … 5 US and 6 int’l (Europe, UK, Oz, Japan)

My stance: Suddenly my favorite company of the bunch. I made a mistake keeping this at 3%, now bumped to 10%. Most sticky service of any Saul stock - companies aren’t going back to the patchwork of devices. Only thing stopping this company is further disruption which isn’t currently visible. PROS: Accelerating growth. EPS & FCF swung positive. FedRAMP opens up gov’t market. New custs rapidly increasing spend. CONS: Rapid sales team growth could be risk. Why is NRR only 118% vs endless fantastic cust expansion stories in CC?

NTNX - Q219…

Revenue 335.4M +48%
Billings 413.4M +57.5%
Software/Support Rev 297.4M +42%
Software/Support Billings 375.5M +37%
Sub Rev 157M +112%
Sub Billings 235.6M (57% of total)
Deferred Rev 779.9M +63%
Adj Gross Margin 76.8% +1330bps
Net loss -122.8M (vs -62.6M)
EPS -0.68 (vs -0.39)
Cash 965.9M
Custs 12410 +920 +7% seq
High tier custs >$1M 779 +44%

Q3 guidance “reflects the impact of inadequate marketing spending for pipeline generation and slower than expected sales hiring. We took a critical look at these areas and have taken actions to address them.”

Saul: sell!…

  • was already having trouble pivoting to SaaS
  • already difficult to quantify what they sell
  • now has huge sales problem, after product lines diverged from core HCI

RetirementDough: it was a good quarter, it was guidance that stunk
Tinker: business model broken…
Bear: deep dive into sales problems…
Bert take:…

My stance: Sold it all on the sales wobble (as I did NVDA on their recent turmoil). Apparently difficult to understand products equals confused sales personnel, esp as products are branching from core HCI. I will likely watch NTNX numbers in case it warrants re-entry - but ultimately there are too many companies to choose from, no need for one with self-inflicted problems.

ESTC - Q319
Saul take:…

Revenue 70.8M +70%
Billings 80M +68%
TTM Billings +76%
Adj Sub Gross Margin 81.1%
Deferred Rev 138M +73%
Adj EPS -0.16
Cash 306M

Sub customers 7200 +14% seq !!
High tier >100k 380 +11% seq

Sub Rev 64.4M (91% of rev)
SaaS Rev 11.7M +67% (16.5% of rev)
Pro Svcs 6.4M +136% (9% of rev)
$NER >130% (for 9Q now)

  • Elastic Stack 6.6 released
  • Elastic APM in GA
  • Elastic Cloud Enterprise v2.1
  • new Auditbeat

My stance: I need to increase this from 3%, though likely won’t be as large as MDB (extremely similar company but I feel TAM is smaller and using it is more difficult). Insane growth, while custs grew 14% seq, NER steady >130%. See my prior post from their dev conference for a glimpse at their growth areas (APM, SEIM, helping custs sidestep Splunk and lower costs).…

SQ - Q419
cochrane take:…

Revenue 933M +51.5%, +5.8% seq
Adj Rev 464M +64.0%, +7.6% seq
Adj EPS 0.14 +75%
GPV 23B +28.5%
Sub/Svc Rev 194M +145.6%, +16.9% seq
Organic Sub Rev 168M +112%

Capital: 72k loans for 472M +55%
Instant Deposit: huge factor in sub rev
Cash App: 15M MAUs +114%

  • it’s about the ecosystem
  • businesses starting to one-stop shop with Square, using it as a bank


  • Square Card - business debit card for merchants (survey showed 40% of sellers didn’t have one)
  • in-app payments SDK (was behind Paypal and Stripe here)
  • Square Payroll: added mobile app and employee benefits

tidbits after earnings:…

My stance: Holding 9% since last year. May be time to lower allocation. This company will continue to execute, but will performance of my higher convictions (MDB, ZS, TTD, TWLO) dwarf it? CONS: The already high Market Cap, tho its but a quarter of PYPLs. New CFO seems promising thus far but Friar leaves a high bar. Competition is everywhere (a lot of Clover and Stripe solutions out there in the wild) - yet SQ keeps succeeding. PROS: Ecosystem keeps getting stickier, plus keeps expanding. SQ is providing a vital need. New debit card for sellers (eats into Instant Deposit fees a bit, but very sticky service). Expanding Payroll app features.

TTD - Q418…
CC notes (starrob):…
Texmex take:…

Revenue 160.5M +56.4% ^^ (vs 50% last Q)
Cust retention >95% steady
Adj EPS 1.09
Mobile +69% w/ video +130%, in-app +90%
CTV +525%, spend up 9x, inventory up 6x

  • Hulu dropped ad walls in Jan (serving 25M subs)
  • Omni-channel is thriving
  • growing twice the industry norm for last 5y
  • Next Wave products released in June have better than expected adoption (70%) driving huge spend growth (+90%)
  • Next Wave - Koa driving 20% CPM (cost) improvement
  • Unified ID initiative to help custs (advertisers) better focus and manage ads
  • advertisers spending more, 4 of top 10 global advertisers doubled their spend
  • CTV opportunity is a perfect storm
  • Int’l still a huge opportunity, expanding in Europe and Asia, partnership w/ every Chinese media co

Int’l opportunity…

  • Int’l only 14% of total rev
  • going slow with China and Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent partnerships

My stance: It sits at 10% alongside ZS, partially from my small buys a year ago (+300%) plus a lot of addl buys late last year to finally increase allocation. Very likely to increase to 15%. PROS: Accelerating growth, w/ expanding int’l markets and huge opportunity yet from CTV ads. CONS: Some huge competition, but that hasn’t really hampered anything TTD has done thus far. Can the disruptor get disrupted (by better ML/AI algo)? [Magic 8-ball so far says “Don’t count on it.”.]

SHOP - Q418…

Revenue 343.9M +54.3%
EPS -0.01 (vs -0.03)
Adj EPS 0.26 +73%

Sub rev 133.6M +42%
Merch Solutions rev 210.3M +63%
Shopify Shipping utilized by 40% of merchants
Shopify Capital 71.8M in credit +81% (loans & cash adv)
Monthly Recurring Rev (MRR) 40.9M +37%
Shopify Plus 10.4M (+65%), 25% of MRR
Mobile was 78% of traffic, 66% of orders
GMV 14B +54%
Payments facilitated 5.8B, 41% of GMV
7 languages now supported in 11 countries
820k merchants +35%
5300 Shopify Plus high tier +45%
2500 apps in app store

saul take:

My stance: Continuing to hold SHOP has been a great move thus far. But there are signs… and I think it’s finally time to shift it into one of the other companies here that have a big “accelerating” in these notes. CONS: Decelerating, strongest growth in lower margin Merch Solutions, costing more to obtain custs … PROS: but is becoming sticky ecosystem, fast innovation in merchant tools, expanding int’l.

AYX - Q418
Saul take:…
Frankdip take:…

Revenue 60.5M +57% (acceleration tapered off)
Billing 116M +65%
Int’l 18M +92%, 29% of rev
EPS -0.01

Revenue 89M
Adj Gross Margin 93%
Adj Net Income 24M, EPS 0.37
Cash 426M

$NRR 132% (>=129% for 9Qs)
cust 4694 +38%, +8% seq (vs 46% last yr)
high tier custs (>$1M) doubled
mid tier custs (>$500k) tripled

  • opened/expanded in 12 cities globally
  • Middle East & Africa doubled rev
  • are changing $NRR metric for $NER
  • getting more into selling in industry verticals (healthcare, govt, “tax & audit” coming soon)

Ethan take:

  • cust count is a bit moot, it hides license count
  • need more details on acct chgs vs drop in growth
  • Billing growth never included before

My stance: Continued solid results, clearly business love it. However, we have so many lovely companies to choose from. I’m going start lowering my 12% alloc somewhat, to shift into pure-r SaaS models that have high-r growth. PROS: Custs spending more over steady 40% cust growth. Expanding int’l, and selling into more industry verticals.

TWLO - Q418…
cc notes (starrob):…
cc Q&A notes (starrob):…

Revenue 204.3M +77% ^^, +79% w/o Uber, +21% seq (vs 40% last yr)
Loss -42.2M (vs -18.9M)
EPS -0.47 (vs -0.20)
Adj EPS 0.04 vs 0.03
Gross Margins 54%
OpEx 152M +89%
custs +3100 +31%, 64.3k total
NER 147%, 148% w/o Uber (vs 118% last yr)

  • new Chief Product Officer
  • adding int’l focus to execs
  • new BOD member Donna Dubinsky
  • closed SendGrid acq

guidance: rev +74%, EPS 0.00
FY19 rev +65%, EPS 0.10 -9%

  • rev growing 2x faster than custs = higher spend in NER

  • EPS affected by higher stock price (stock-based comp)

  • this is last Q w Uber adj

  • 4M registered developers in combined co

  • 140K accts in combined co

  • added new CMO Chee Chew (ex AMZN VP, ex GOOG VP)

  • added Donna Dubinsky to BoD (CEO Numenta, ex CEO Palm & Handspring, ex Apple)

  • new hires for global VP, expanding EMEA, APAC teams

  • rev boosted by large intl cust ramping spending, and mid-term elections

  • hiring aggressively for Sales & Mkt and R&D positions

  • unifying sales format across combined Twilio + SendGrid

  • New Narrowband IoT product coming - smaller/cheaper sensor allows for wider use, sensors can have entire lifespan be connected

  • TWLO is first dev platform for Narrowband, protocols part of 5G rollout

  • TWLO as a whole starting to move from developer-lead to selling into VP/CTO level, SIGNAL event targeted those

  • Flex launched last Q, target is companies having 1000+ agents

  • Flex requires direct sales to mgmt vs developer-lead

bear increasing position:…

My stance: I amassed 15% position over past 5 mo, my #1. It’s top performance has only been bested MDB and TTD. I think this stock has a bright future. … PROS: Accelerating growth & NER (already at 147%!). Acquired SendGrid for email svcs, now 4M devs across 140K combined custs. New CPO, expanding int’l sales force. Still innovating, new Flex APIs to easily stitch together call center workflows. CONS: Change in marketing focus from devs to C level may have risk. Merger integration may not go as smoothly as expected. But so far, TWLO has executed to perfection, so hard to see them stumbling on their stated goals.

ROKU - Q418……

Revenue 275.7M +46%
Platform Revenue 151.4M +77% ^^
Device sales 124.3M +21%
EPS 0.05
Platform Gross Margins 72.2% (blade)
Sales Gross Margins 2.4% (razor)
Active Accts 27.1M +3.3M +40%
Streaming Hours 7.3B +69%
ARPU 17.95 +30%


  • Open licensing of Roku OS to smart TVs
  • huge upside of streaming TV ad market
  • Int’l expansion

My stance: How’d I miss this one over past few months. New feeler position as I get to know it. PROS: Accelerating platform revenue growth seems enticing, huge opportunity around CTV ads (seems akin to TTD) and int’l expansion.



Muji, you are a great writer and I love the way you think. Your input is super valuable. Thanks for what you do.


Okay, okay, people. I get the hint. You like my earnings dumps.

So here’s a bonus – all the other stocks followed here that I’ve got my eye on.

NOTE: Besides ^^ and !! from before, some new bits of shorthand: vv = decelerating, CCURR = constant currency (removing currency f/x of reporting in US$)


ZUO = rev +29%vv, sub rev +35%vv, NER 112%
STNE (Brazil) = rev +113% !!, custs +104% !!
SMAR = rev +58%, billings +63%, custs>50k +135% !!, NER 134%^^, ACV +50%^^
VEEV = rev +25%, def rev +82% !!, RRR 122%
APPN = rev +19%, adj sub rev +40%, NRR 117%, custs +30%
PAYC = rev +32%^^
NEWR = rev +35%, custs >100k +30%, NRR 122%
ZEN = rev +41.3%^^, NRR 119%, custs +15%, ACV +60%
PS = rev +42%^^, NRR 128%
PLAN = rev +49%, NER 123%
FIVN = rev +31%, NRR 103%
IQ (China) = rev +54%, subs +72%
MELI (Argentina) = rev +63%, Pago +69%, GMV +18%, Envios vol +28% (all CCURR)
COUP = rev +39%
WIX = rev +39%vv, users +19%vv
SAIL = rev +15%vv, sub rev +42%vv, custs +26%
SFIX = rev +25%, custs +18%
GH = rev +64%, clinic rev +124% !!, pharma rev +46%
DOCU = rev +34%, NRR 112%

My stance:

I recently sold VEEV to replace w/ faster growth, as well as <1% try-out positions in APPN and ZUO.

Of all these, SMAR and GH interest me most, and have longer writeups below. I now own 2% pos in SMAR and w/ the pop since, wish it was way more. About to enter GH since it seems early innings – I should have moved before the NILE study finished, but I wanted to play it cautiously due to pain other biotech stocks w/ binary outcomes have caused me. NILE looks really good, and the new LUNAR assay opens up another avenue (leveraging their data).

I’ll still watch a few others: ZEN is accelerating plus ACV growing, and PS and PLAN are on the higher end of growth with good NER. Not that I want to invest in LatinAm, but STNE and MELI are going gangbusters (previously made good $ w/ MELI).

Not terribly interested in the others. And ZUO, WIX and SAIL are all decelerating.


ZUO - Q419

Revenue 64.1M +29% deceleration
Sub Revenue 35% deceleration
Custs >100K 526 +27%
$NER 112%

STNE - Q419…

CC notes (GrowthMonkey):…

Revenue +113%
Net income +646%
Custs +104%

SMAR - Q419
saul take:…

CC transcript:…

Revenue 52.2M +58%
Billings 64.1M +63%
Loss -11.7M
FCF 1.0M swung pos (briefly*)
Gross Margin 82%
Sub Gross Margin 88%
users 4.8M
custs 79k (domains)
custs >50k 444 +135% !!!
custs >100k 147 +126%
$NER 134% ^^ +200bps seq
ACV $2454 +50% ^^
churn < 10%

FY19 Revenue 177.7M +60%

  • cust use spreading w/in their domains, ACV rising
  • present in 75% of Fortune 500
  • billings up due to new product & bigger recent deals
  • 90% of subs are billed annual
  • ramping up opex for product so expect FCF to remain negative in FY20

Darth: they sandbag!…

VEEV - Q419…

CC transcript:…

Revenue 232M +25%
Sub Rev +25%
Deferred Rev 356M +81.6%
Billings 394M
EPS 0.45 +88% !!!
FCF 29M (vs -0.5M) swung pos
Gross Margins 85.2% +380bps
RRR 122%

APPN - Q418…

Revenue 60.2M +19%
Sub rev 33.8M +44%, adj 40% (hidden sub rev)
(one-time accelerated payment inflated it 4%)
Pro Svcs 25.1M flat
Int’l rev was 27% of total
Adj EPS -0.14 (vs -0.08)
$NRR 117%
GM 65% +100bps
Cash 94.9M
Custs 378 +87 +30%

PAYC - Q418

Revenue +32% ^^ (98% is recurring)
Gross Margins 84%

Bear take: time to exit?…

NEWR - Q119
fish take:
bear take:…

Revenue 124M +35%
Adj Inc 7.8M
cash $727.3.9M
816 high value cust ($100k+) +30%

17k paid biz accts
$NRR 122% (vs 125% last yr) (slow down from high of 141% 2Q ago)
Gross Margins 84%

  • new kubernetes cluster explorer
  • acq SignifAI - “advanced AIOPs”

ZEN - Q418…

Jimbo take:

Revenue 121.9M +41.3% ^^
Adj EPS 0.10 +900%
Gross margins 74.3%
$NRR 119%
Custs 136.6k +2% seq, +14.9%
Zendesk Support 73.6k +1.5k
Zendesk Chat 46.1k -700
Others 16.9k +2.1k
Avg contract value +60%
High contracts >50k +6%

  • New CRM platform, Sunshine
  • 40% of rev from custs w/ >=100 support agents +38%
  • New Chief Customer Officer, CIO and SVP of Product Mgmt
  • Rev growth >36% last 7 Q

PS - Q418

Revenue 67.3M +42% ^^ (vs 38%)
Billings 100.6M +42%
EPS 0.09 (vs -.53) swung pos
Gross Margin 77% +200bps
$NRR 128% (increasing)
now in 70% of Fortune 500 (vs 65%) but only 5% penetrated

PLAN - Q418…

Revenue 69.3M +49%
Sub Revenue 59.7M +44%
$NER 123%
Loss -32.7M (47.2% of rev)
Cash 327M

FIVN - Q418…

Revenue 72.3M +30.6%
$NRR 103% (vs 102%)

IQ - Q418…

cc notes (starrob):…

Revenue RMB 7B +54%
Member rev 3.2B +76%
Ad rev 2.2B +9%
Content 552M +137%
Other 1.1B +129%

Total Subs 87.4M +72%

MELI - Q418

CC transcript:…

Revenue 428M +20%, +63% CCURR
Pago >$5B +22.1%, +68.5% CCURR
GMV >$3B -10.6%, +17.6% CCURR
Envios shipped 62.1M +28.5%

COUP - Q418

Revenue 74.9M +39%
Loss -16.6M (vs -8.7M)
EPS -0.28 (vs -0.16)

WIX - Q418…

Revenue 164M +39%
Users +19%
Premium Subs +24%
… all decelerating slightly

SAIL - Q418

Sub Revenue +42% lower (was 52%)
License Rev +2% lower (some revs brought forward into Q3)
Total Revenue +15% lower
Int’l rev +50%
Custs 1173 +26%, +7% seq
95% renewal rate
New Chief Cust Officer

SFIX - Q219…

Revenue 370.3M +25%
EPS 0.12 +500%
Custs 3M +18%
UK expansion, launch Q419 (May-Jul)

GH - Q419…

CC transcript:…

Revenue 32.9M +64%
Clinical vol 8596 +24%
Clinical rev 15.1M +124% !!!
… avg rev per test > doubled !!!
Pharma vol 3009 +14%
Pharma rev 10.8M +46%
Net Loss -25.3M (vs -15.1)
EPS -0.30 (vs -1.27)
Cash 496.5M

FY19 Revenue 90.6M +82%
FY19 Clinical vol 29.6K +15%
… avg rev per test +54%
FY19 Clinical rev 43.7M +78%
FY19 Pharam vol 10.3K +65%
FY19 Pharma rev 34.7 +98%

  • leading liquid biopsy co, used 80k times by 6k oncologies in >50 pharmas
  • this Q, endorsed by BCBS Assoc
  • covered lives >115M, vs 77M last Q
  • moving fast in Japan w/ Softbank JV, sights on Asia, Middle East, Africa
  • multi-year agreement w/ AstraZeneca for oncology diag tests
  • launched LUNAR assay for recurrence monitoring and detection
  • NILE readout - G360 detected biomarkers at similar rate to tissue, meeting primary endpoint at 40% faster rate
  • expanding team to handle increased demand

paths to grow:

  • FDA approval for G360 w/ pan-cancer
  • pan-cancer Medicare coverage post-FDA

ethan take:…

Saul thinks it keeps going:…

Typeoh on rev drop:…

DOCU - Q419…

Revenue 200M +34%
Billings 262M +31%
Gross Margin 74% -500bps
EPS -0.40 (vs -0.20)
Adj EPS 0.06
FCF 22.8M
$NRR 112% (low end of goal)
Custs 477k
Cash 934M

long SMAR, about to be long GH


great post muji… thanks for sharing…

I have been uncomfortable with ESTC so reduced that quite a bit…

And exited DOCU, SAIL and NTNX… for slow down reasons… mostly at a bit of loss…

And slowly trimming MDB this week as it has run up very very strong… still large (>10%) position and want to keep that way for a while…

That money so far has gone onto SMAR and ZEN…

From your post PLAN catches my eye… i remember Saul owned for a little while and exited i believe… I will look into this.