the latest in earnings

May/Jun 2019

Another earnings season has come and gone. No NVDA or NTNX meltdowns this Q, just more of the same with the main Saul-followed companies holding steady and continuing their phenomenal YTD performance after the doldrums of last Xmas. Here again is my earnings boil-down plus intertwined thoughts, to recap where all our stocks are at the moment. Everyone here does monthly write-ups but quarterly is more my pace, as I like to check in and review all the companies I follow after all have reported.

Shout out to The Motley Fool for their transcript service and general awesomeness, and to Starrob for his excellent earnings call writeups on the Premium boards. Okta Q&A one is good read.

Prior reports:
Feb/Mar 2019:…
Oct/Nov 2018:…

My overall current feelings of “Saul stocks”, in a nutshell:
Top tier: MDB, TWLO, AYX, ZS
Second tier: OKTA, ESTC, TTD, ROKU
Third tier: SMAR, SQ (reducing), SHOP (reducing)
Considering: ZM, PLAN


TWLO    14.8%
OKTA    14.5%
AYX     13.1%
MDB     12.6%    increased from 9% to 10%
TTD     11.5%    lightened from 13%
ZS      11.5%	
ESTC     5.8%    increased from 3% to 6%
SHOP     5.2%
SQ       4.5%    lightened from 9%
ROKU     3.3%	 increased from 1% to 2%
SMAR     1.1%
NFLX       0%    sold out from 5%

I’m up 52% YTD. Would be 55% but I took some funds out to pay the tax man for the glory that was 13 years of owning NFLX. OKTA and MDB have gone up so much more than the others that they rose 3 and 2 positions up my list on their own.

I have been lightening TTD a little and SQ a lot. From here, I may lighten TTD, OKTA and AYX (still sad it isn’t moving towards some SaaS solutions). Beefed up ESTC and ROKU a bit recently. Still haven’t felt motivated to get more SMAR but it’s numbers are good. May swap SHOP for ZM and a bit more SMAR.

I have finally sold out of NFLX completely. I don’t foresee much competition from Apple TV+, but Disney+ is coming (and DIS is taking its content back) and Hulu is rising. NFLX has been a great run with NFLX since 2006 with highest sale being a gain of 12914% (a 130-bagger). But Saul’s words in the Knowledge Base about baggers really gave me a bit of a slap, and the current strength of this stock isn’t great as it is still 20% below the highs of 411 from a year ago. NFLX was >33% of my portfolio a year ago, and now it’s 0%, as I now find myself very happy with a wide basket of sticky SaaS hypergrowth stories, and my portfolio is back to phenomenal growth.

NOTE on my NOTES below: ^^ is “accelerating”, and !! is an especially important/impressive bit IMHO.


ZM = rev +103% !!, int’l +127% !!, $NER >130% !!, custs +86% !!, >100K +120% !!
MDB = rev +78% ^^, sub rev +82% ^^, $NER >120%, custs +115% !!
TWLO = rev 81%, $NER 146% !!, custs +31%
AYX = rev +51%, $NER 134% !!, custs +35%
ZS = rev +61%, $NER 118%
OKTA = rev +50%, sub rev +52%, $NRR 120%, custs +38%, >100k +53% ^^
ESTC = rev +68% CCURR, $NER >130%, custs +62%
TTD = rev +41%, adj EPS +44%, video +60%, audio +270%
SQ = rev +59%, sub rev +126%, EPS +83%, GPV +27%
SHOP = rev +50%, adj EPS +125%, GMV +50%, GPV +63%
ROKU = rev +51% ^^, platform rev +79% !!, ARPU +27%, units +21%, accts +40%, stream hrs +74% ^^
SMAR = rev +55%, $NRR 134% !!, custs +58%, >100K +139% !!


ZM - Q120
Fool recap:…
Fool highlights:…
CC transcript:…

Revenue 122M +103% !!

  • Int’l rev +127% !!, 24% of total (vs 23.4%)
    Net income .2M swung pos
    Adj EPS 0.08
    FCF 15.3M (vs -1M) swung pos
    Cash 737.2M (543M from IPO)
    Custs 58.5k +86% !!
  • Custs >100K 405 +120% !!
    $NER >130% (for 4Qs)
  • intl growing faster; still only 24%
  • APAC and EMEA combined +127%, Americas +98%
  • huge focus on R&D spending $13M, includes 1/3 of workforce
  • 4 deals >$1M ARR this Q
  • new custs DocuSign, FICO, Take Two, Ciena

My stance: I don’t own it [yet]. I admit their insane numbers are compelling [see all those !! above?]; extreme revenue growth propelled by high cust growth (especially in the high-spend tier) and the $NER are all enticing. But it seems like such a replaceable service with litle moat - I challenge any ZM fans here to expand on what moat they have or what stickiness applies to their service besides “being better” (Webex and Gotomeeting both set such a low bar!). Ultimately I think OKTA, ZS, MDB, AYX, TWLO, and ESTC are all way more sticky enterprise services. Despite that, I may nibble with a 5% pos just to ride the hypergrowth, but keep it on a short leash. Surprised to see 1/3 of workforce is in R&D - AR and AI are clearly both coming to video-conferencing, so those are something to watch for. (They mentioned AR in Nov 2017 here:…)

MDB - Q120
Fool recap:…
RGB numbers:…
CC transcript:…
CC recap (jackstraw):…
CC notes (starrob):…
CC Q&A (starrob):…

Revenue 89.4M +78.3% ^^
… organic +68.4% w/o mLab

  • Sub Revenue 84M +82% ^^
    – Atlas rev 31.29M +340% (35% of ttl vs 14%) !!
  • Pro Svcs 5.4M +33%
    Adj EPS -0.22 (vs -0.37)
    Custs 14.2k +115%
  • Custs >100K 598 +52%
    Adj Gross Margin 70% -341bps (lower due to Atlas/mLab)
    $NER 120% (at that for 17 Qs)
    FCF 2.8M swung pos
    Cash 477M
  • jump in rev growth due to mLab, organic was 68.4%
  • acquired Realm mobile database and their 100k active devs [I discussed it in severe depth in my writeup]
  • more details about future plans for Realm @ MongoDB World
  • expanded partnership with Google for Atlas hosting and unified billing on Google Cloud Platform (GCP) [as did ESTC]
  • customer wins: Splunk, Enphase, Everbridge
  • continue to migrate mLab customers to Atlas over FY20, expect negative drag of $1.11 to $1.04 against adj EPS for FY20
  • expanding partner ecosystem is huge priority
  • several large deals came from IBM partnership
  • new chairman of BoD was former AWS head (also on board of Carbon Black SECaaS & Akamai), been on BoD 3.5yrs
  • dev conf MongoDB World coming to NYC June 17-19
  • CEO: “I don’t want to steal our thunder from MongoDB World, but we’ll be making some very interesting announcements there.”

My post covering Realm acquisition:
IF YOU ARE WORRIED about Amazon competition: See my post on Cutting Through the FUD…

My stance: Knocking it out of the park, and stock reflects that. I did buy more after last earnings as I mentioned I would, and now it has risen into 13% position for me. I know I compare this to Elastic all the time, but geez, MDB organic growth was +68% to ESTC’s +68% CCURR! They both deserve your attention. But relative strength of MDB remains way stronger. Look forward to seeing what gets announced at MongoDB World this week.

ESTC - Q419
Bear recap:
RGB numbers:…
CC transcript:…

Revenue 80.6M +63% (+68% CCURR)
Billings 115.4M +57% (+63% CCURR)
Deferred Rev 170.7M +66%
Adj Loss -17.5M
Adj EPS -0.28
Cash 298M

FY19 Rev +70% (+72% CCURR)
FY19 Adj Loss -55.7M
FY19 Adj EPS -1.11

Custs 8100 +62%

  • Custs > 100K 440, +16% seq
    $NER >130% (10 Qs in a row)
  • released Elastic Stack 6.7 w/ SQL interface, cross cluster replication, Canvas (interactive presentation builder), and Functionbeat (FaaS monitoring in Beats)
  • new product Elastic Maps for advanced layered geospatial mapping
  • new product Elastic Uptime for real-time availability monitoring
  • released Elastic Stack 7.0 w/ speed improvements, new query types, and redesigned Kibana interface
  • made core security & monitoring features free (retaliation against Amazon’s Open Distro - those were the only features Open Distro has added thus far)
  • new product Elastic Cloud on Kubernetes to help orchestrate ES clusters
  • expanded partnership for Elastic Cloud hosting on Google Cloud Platform (GCP) [as did MDB]
  • new partnership for hosting in Tencent Cloud
  • ElasticON tour (roving global dev conference) events occurred in Beijing, Seattle, SF, Sao Paolo, Tokyo and Zurich
  • acquired Endgame, an endpoint security company akin to ZS, CRWD, with SECaaS based on ES Stack
  • CEO: “you should expect us to see over the next year a more curated experience when it comes to the SIEM product and the SIEM market and are starting to release a concrete product in that space”
  • PR: “together, we will bring to market a holistic security product that combines endpoint and SIEM”

Darth acquisition review:…
Ethan acquisition review:…
IF YOU ARE NEW TO COMPANY see my recent 3 part deep dive:…

My stance: Fantastic and very relevant move into security space with Endgame acquisition. ESTC continues to expand beyond db hosting and into focused enterprise SaaS space (search-as-a-service, and now security-as-a-service). They made excellent use of Swiftype’s products to extend themselves into being a enterprise search service competing against Google, and are spinning into other exciting new directions like SIEM. Saul and many others have exited but I and few like Dreamer and Darth are moving in more. I know MDB has been winning on relative strength - but that is why it was 3x the position for me. Lockup is finally over, and as market wakes up to ESTC’s potential, I want to be ready. The past several months have gone nowhere - but it is where it is going from here that matters today. I upped my position to about 1/2 of what MDB is, mostly from SQ sale and TTD trim. Look at how quickly they are moving on their product line releases - this company is not standing still.

SMAR - Q119
Darthtaco take:
CC transcript:…

Revenue +55%
Billings +52%
$NRR 134% !!
ACV +48%
Custs >5K +58%

  • Custs >50K +117% !!
  • Custs >100K +139% !!

My stance: Smartsheets is a core data management platform (built around a spreadsheet with custom forms and dashboards over it) and having lots of products coming out based on that core. This gives lots of optionality - but I find it a bit confusing when looking at their product line. It remains to be seen if SMAR can keep selling as product line expands but something is working – the numbers show that customers are growing, and keep spending more and more (top tiers growing faster plus $NRR of 134%). I need to get this up 3-4% soon.

ZS - Q319
Fool recap:…
Tedyun review:…
CC transcript:…

Revenue 79.1M +61%
Billings 84.7M +55%
Deferred Revenue 211.5M +69%
Loss -12.2M (vs -10M.0)
Adj Income 7.4M (vs -2.6M) swung pos
FCF 4.6M (vs 3.7M)
Cash 352.7M
$NER 118% (vs 120%)

  • Americas 51%, Europe/ME/Afr 41%, AsiaPac 8%
  • added capacity for 2Tb/sec in Beijing, Stockholm and Atlanta
  • acquired Appsulate, next-gen browser-isolation security
  • warns Q4 has difficult comps

Appsulate is “a browser isolation company providing users secure access to web-based applications and content by rendering safe pixels to the browser, protecting corporate endpoints from security concerns.”

Ethan - Symantec floundering:…

My stance: I still vote ZS as stickiest service. They warned of difficult comps next Q so maybe a little rocky ahead. Still wonder why the $NER is so muted, perhaps due to larger initial deals? Not sure what to think about the new acquisition. LOTS of room internationally to grow - APAC is just beginning. I continue to sit on my 11% and wait.

OKTA - Q120
Fool recap:…
Fool recap:…
Fool highlights:…
CC transcript:…
CC notes (starrob):…
CC Q&A (starrob):…

Revenue 125.2M +49.8%

  • Sub Revenue 117.2M +52%
  • Intl +60% (was 16% of total)
    Billings 268M +53%
    Adj Loss -21.4M (vs -9.4M)
    Adj EPS -0.19 (vs -0.09)
    Gross Margin 75.7% +160bps
    Opex +68% (some due to Oktane timing)
    FCF 13.2M (vs -1.6M) swung pos
    Cash 547.5M
    Custs 6500 +38%, +7% seq
  • Custs >100K +53% ^^
    $NRR 119% (initial deals getting larger)
  • closed on Azuqua acquisition “a leader in no-code, cloud-based business application integration and workflow automation” (aka provides a UI over managing and directing Okta workflows; bolsters Lifecycle Mgmt service) [see my deep dive for coverage]
  • continues to grow the international business, expanding in Germany and AsiaPac
  • held Oktane’19 annual conf [see my deep dive for coverage]
  • new Okta Hooks capability to customize policies/behaviors w/in core Okta service
  • new Okta Identity Engine breaks APIs into set of building blocks (like Twilio Flex did for call center APIs)
  • new Risk-based Authentication service in Adaptive MFA to leverage ML in tracking risk of user logins
  • new Advanced Server Access (Zero-Trust) service, to centralize access into infrastructure (spun out of ScaleFT acquisition)
  • new Access Gateway (Zero-Trust) service, to centralize access into on-premise applications and APIs (spun out of ScaleFT acquisition)
  • new Chief Product Officer, was VP of Product Mgmt at Google
  • some large fed opportunities coming from State Dept

Cheesehead reasons to buy:…
12x concerns:
IF YOU ARE NEW TO COMPANY see my deep dive from back in March:…

My stance: Okta is maturing into its next phase. Growth slowing to 50% yet growth in high quality custs is accelerating and $NRR stays at 120% (customers spending more). Impressed by their recent acquisitions – very excited by the Zero-Trust forays from ScaleFT (expanding Okta to managing access to your on-premise and cloud servers as well as on-premise applications) and the workflow mgmt UI enhancements they get from Azuqua. I hope my deep dive got some folks here into this exciting company - it’s gone up 39% in the 2mo since. If it keeps that up it will overtake TWLO as my #1. I am going to trim it a bit but it will stay a top 5 position.

ROKU - Q119
Fool recap:…
BreakerJohn review:…
Danny Vena review:…
CC transcript:…

Revenue 206.7M +51% ^^

  • Platform Rev 134.2M +79% !!
  • Player Rev 72M +18%
    Gross profit 100.9M +60%
  • Platform gross profit +76%
    Loss -9.7M (vs -6.6M)
    EPS -0.09
    Gross Margins 48.8% +260bps
    Platform Gross Margins 69.9%
    Opex +59%
    Cash 290M (+98M from recent stock offering)

Player unit sales +21%
Player ASP -4% (aggressive pricing)
Active Accts 29.1M +40% !!, +7% seq
Streaming Hours 8.9B +74% ^^, +22% seq !!
ARPU 19.06 +27%
Smart TVs 1 in 3 use Roku OS

  • more active accts than Comcast (29M vs 22M)
  • Roku Channel hsa >10K free ad-supported movies and TV episodes, plus >24 live streaming channels
  • added Premium Subscriptions this Q for >30 streaming content partners (HBO, Showtime, Starz, Epix, etc) that are billed, managed and viewed thru Roku acct
  • Disney+ and Apple TV+ coming to Premium Subs
  • 1 in 3 Smart TVs sold in US has Roku TV (2018 was 1 in 4, 2017 was 1 in 5)
  • monetized video ad impressions up 2x YoY, should continue

My stance: Roku is in a crowded space against the big-wigs yet excels at being neutral ground for CTV (unlike Amazon, Google and Apple). Roku is clearly focused on growing the eyeballs. Unit sales continue to grow the base, and active accounts is growing faster while ARPU is rising. They seem somewhat complicated with their ad sharing deals, but the base equation is simple: Accelerating streaming hours = more ads = accelerating revenue. I will increase to 5%, probably from TTD trimming.

TTD - Q119
Fool recap:…
CC transcript:…
CC notes (edyboom):…

Revenue 121M +41% (vs 61%)
EPS 0.21 +5%
Adj EPS 0.49 +44%
EBITDA 24.7M +31%

Mobile 45% of GPV (web, in-app, video)

  • in-app +60%
  • video +60%
  • audio +270%
  • CTV up 3x
  • data spend +80%
  • continued omnichannel focus
  • 95% retention rate for 21 Qs

  • officially launched in China; teams in Shanghai and Hong Kong, partnerships with Baidu, iQuyi, Tencent, Youku, Alibaba
  • added integration with On-Target Percentage (OTP) metrics in CTV
  • enhanced Audience Predictor to find and target undiscovered audiences
  • 725B global spend expected in 2019 +4%, programmatic only 33B growing +20%
  • much of growth from int’l expansion; London breaking records, Europe up strongly, Germany & Spain both >+100%
  • programmatic continues to grow, w/ live sports good fit for programmatic (unexpected commercial breaks)
  • reach 80M households worldwide
  • Unified ID is becoming ubiquitous
  • Next Wave platform now has >80% adoption, remaining should transition by end of year, then retire classic platform
  • just getting started with CTV, currently programmatic is 2.8% of TV ad spend this year
  • in Jan, Hulu opened biddable ad marketplace as a top video streamer; big test for CTV growth
  • Spotify & podcasts success drive Audio segment

DreamerDad thinks legacy ads dragged it down:…
Tinker thinks too much focus on small segments like CTV:…
FourthStooge shows growth is variable:…
Saul compares revenue slowdown between SHOP & TTD:…

My stance: TTD revenue can be choppy based on advertising trends, so the drop in growth is to be watched to see if one time dip or new trend. But growth has dropped to 41% from 56% just last Q. Hulu just opened up a new frontier for CTV ad space, while Spotify and podcasts are making audio ads grow +240%. Walled gardens are getting extra scrutiny. International expansion continues. Trimmed this a little on its exuberance but it remains a 11% position. Likely to trim more from here.

SQ - Q119
Fool recap:…
Cochrane review:…
CC transcript:…
CC notes (edyboom):…

Adj Revenue 489M +59%
… organic +49% (no Weebly, Zesty)
… TTM 1769M +63%

  • Hardware 18M +26%
  • Sub revenue 219M +126% (vs 98%)
    … organic 191M +97%
    … % of total 44.8% (vs 31.6%)
    Loss -38M, -24M adj* (vs -24M)
    Adj EPS 0.11 +83%
    Opex +52%
  • Sales & Mktg +73%
    Cash 1.6B
    Adj Gross Margins 82%

GPV 22.6B +27%
… midmarket sellers (>500K in GPV) +52%
Cash app vol up 2.5x
Sq Capital 70k loans 508M +50%
Sq Invoices 5B GPV TTM, from 350k active sellers

  • large sellers driving GPV growth, continue to move upmarket
  • loss was actually flat, -14M impact from Eventbrite (EB) holdings
  • continued push into omni-channel, offline and online (Weebly acq)
  • Weebly integration re-branded as Sq Online Store (huge move towards SHOP)
  • launched mobile app for Sq Invoices
  • new Sq Terminal POS
  • new Sq Reader for contactless/chip…
  • POS hardware expanded into Japan (2020 Olympics & Rugby league coming)
  • sellers spending >20% of GPV thru Square Card (biz debit card, gives faster access to funds)
  • rebooted Sq for Retail from ground up
  • restaurant avg GPV 650k, 65% self on-board
  • retail avg GPV 250k, 85% self on-board, and 40% new to SQ
  • launched a new ecosystem brand campaign to reach 7M SMB in US

Sunlion ignoring sandbagged guidance:…
Gaucho likes sub rev growth increasing:
Jimbo sees bigger customers increasing:…
bodhibob likes adj gross margin:…
Cochrane bullish signs to watch:…

My stance: S&M expense rising more than adj rev growth, but sub rev growth remains exceptional (128%). Larger sellers are driving GPV growth. SQ is moving towards SHOP, while SHOP does the reverse. Market has been pretty sour about everything, as it hasn’t remotely returned to prior highs in Sept’18 (38% more to go…), while SHOP goes up and up. Disappointing. I’ve dropped it from 9% to 4.5%.

AYX - Q119
CC transcript:…
Ethan recap:
Frankdip recap:…

Revenue 76M +51%
EPS 0.09 (vs 0.08)
Adj EPS 0.04 (vs 0.10) expected loss
Cash 461M
Custs 4973 +35%

  • Custs >500K +70% !!
  • Custs >1M +50%
    $NER 134% !! (vs 129%)
    … of Global 2000 custs +143%

Analyst day (ethan):
Inspire conf coverage:

My stance: Solid revenue growth, driven by more customers (+35%) that are spending more (rising $NER). Hard to complain about 50% growth, but I still keep a close eye on this non-SaaS company. I’d be very excited to see them start moving towards SaaS products instead of just having Windows desktop apps sold on an annual fee, but doesn’t appear in the immediate cards. I am not sure what the ClearStory acquisition is really gaining them, and they consumed their website so I don’t have any vision into what they did. They are making stronger moves in ML it seems from Inspire conf announcements, with a new beta AutoML feature.

TWLO - Q119
Fool recap:…
CC transcript:…
CC notes (starrob):…
CC nuggets (saul):…

Revenue 233.1M +81%
… TWLO +60%
… SEND +30%
EPS -0.31 (vs -0.25)
Adj EPS 0.05
Gross Margins 58%
… SEND added +300bps
$NER 146% !! +1400bps
Custs 155K
… organic 71k +31%, +10% seq
… SEND added 84k
… top 10 custs were 14% (vs 18%)

  • $NER been ~145% for 3Qs now. Impressive.
  • SEND results included as of Feb 1, so YoY comparison is inflated by 2 months contribution from them.
  • Uber no longer mentioned at all
  • first full Q of Flex, rec’d great feedback from early custs & planning add’l features
  • TWLO + SEND now have >5M developer accounts
  • new Expert Services give extra support, guidance, education, data/analytics
  • launched Twilio for Salesforce on CRM AppExchange, easily add SMS to Salesforce CRM
  • new auth type Transactional TOTP (time-based OTP) for new PSD2 requirements in EU
  • new efforts to combat robo/spam calling, adding phone compliance program into platform
  • entering Japan and LatinAm w/ new hires
  • began efforts to cross-sell between TWLO and SEND (still early)
  • doubling number of roadshow events
  • Verizon new A2P (app to person) text channel costs will get passed thru (neutral to profits, but will impact margins -100bps per Q) - expects other carriers to act similarly
  • big dev event Signal coming in Q3 will depress profits

Tim Beyers thoughts on SendGrid:…

My stance: Twilio continues to shine. Custs growing (31%) while spending more ($NER 145%!!). International is just beginning so expect more spend as they expand to new carriers. Doubling their roadshow events. The need to directly communicate with your customers is only going to grow. This remains a top pick.

SHOP - Q119
Fool recap:…
Cochrane review:…
CC transcript:…
CC notes (starrob):…

Revenue 320.5M +49.5%

  • Merch Solutions rev 180M +58%
  • Sub rev 140.5M +40%
    – MRR 44.2M +36%
    ---- Shopify Plus 11.3M +61%
    Loss -35.8M (vs -20.3M)
    EPS -0.22 (vs -0.16)
    Adj EPS 0.09 +125%

GMV 11.9B +50%
Payments GPV 4.9B +63%, 41% of GMV (vs 38%), #tx >+100%
Shipping used by >40% merchants (vs 33%)
Capital loaned $87.8M +40%

Custs ~820k in 175 countries, Plus >5300
Partner apps 2700 +200
Cash 2B
Mobile growth accelerating:

  • mobile traffic 79% (vs 75%)
  • mobile orders 69% (vs 64%)
  • major new Shopify Plus merchants - Levi’s, Hasbro, HarperCollins, Segway, brand-specific shops from JNJ and PG
  • multi-channel remains a big differentiator, now is merging online and offline (POS)
  • new POS hardware released for retail locations (tap-and-ship reader, dock and stand)
  • new $30M brand campaign in 12 US markets
  • launch Shopify Studios in Jan - full service TV/film content production house, to focus on founder/company stories
  • new feature for Shopify Plus to sell in multiple currencies, paid in local
  • add Dutch & ‘simplified’ Chinese language stores (now 9 langs), more coming
  • new marketing capabilities for smaller merchants and ad targeting tool
  • store switcher tool for brands to run multiple shops

anthonyms take:…
Saul compares revenue slowdown between SHOP & TTD:…

My stance: SHOP continues to rise while SQ price remains stagnant. Revenue growth now under 50%, while sub revenue has dropped from 55% this year to 40%. Growth is slowing markedly, yet the market doesn’t care. At some point I need to move on but I am glad I have not as of yet.


Danny Vena recap:…
Danny Vena recap:…
CC notes (Starrob):…
Revenue +48% (+92% CCURR) !!
GPV 5.6B +82% !!
Pay tx 144M +94%
EPS 0.13 swung pos

AMRN - Q119
imuafool recap:…
Revenue 73.3M +67%
Gross Margins 76.6% (FY18 was +1130bps)
Cash 211M
Debt 70M

Revenue 23.6M +38%

jimbo recap:
Revenue +45%
Billings +57% ^^
FCF -5M (vs -16M)
$NER 123%

Revenue +40%
Gross margins 67% +5000 bps
Custs 19%
ASP +20%

Swift recap:…
Jimbo sold:…
Bear adding:…
Cheesehead recap:…
imuafool recap:…

That’s all folks. Even following 12 stocks takes a lot of research, so hopefully this helps you get up to speed quickly. I will never go back to the days of owning >60!



I feel the same as you in regards to SHOP. I am still holding my original position at just shy of a 1000% gain. I agree with Saul’s take and have been planning on selling soon, but the market doesn’t seem to care about decreasing revenue growth at the moment. With the momentum around the stock currently, I’m contemplating holding until right before next earnings.

muji -

Awesome post. Thanks for taking the time. One quick question: for companies where you list a loss, why do you use the raw dollar amount rather than a percentage of revenue?

Not saying either is right or wrong. I’m just curious as to your tracking and thought process.


I still vote ZS as stickiest service. They warned of difficult comps next Q so maybe a little rocky ahead. Still wonder why the $NER is so muted, perhaps due to larger initial deals?

Hi Muji
That is the way they explained it. When a company signs up they are most likely to sign up pretty much the whole business.


Hi Muji,
I was reareading your wonderful post describing your positions and their rationale,…

and realized that while we disagree on Shopify and Elastic, we have the same top six positions (Twilio, Okta, Alteryx, Mongo, Zscaler, Trade Desk), although not in the same order except for Twilio in number one position, and that all the six are 11% positions or over for both of us, and make up the vast majority of our portfolios (with 7th place and on down dropping dropping in size by half, to 5.8% or smaller positions). It’s good to see that we have come to the same core positions while perhaps coming to them from different directions. Thanks for the great write-up.