Mike:“Bigger picture. In the short term (next decade) having an increasing market for EVs helps protect against oil supply shortages.”
EV penetration will be 5% at best in 2025 and maybe 15% by 2030. There will still be a BILLION fossil fuel engines in the world at that time. From lawn mowers to jet aircraft to ATVs, boats, ferries, trucks, generators, weed whackers, and of course, the billion or so cars.
Only 30% of oil goes to transport. I assume you figured out that EV cars don’t need metal and plastics from fossil fuels? Or fabrics for seats or foam for seat cushions, copper wire, steel, etc? All made with fossil fuels.
Or that we don’t really need to eat? Heck, eliminate fossil fuel fertilizers and pesticides and only 4 or 5 billion people will starve to death quickly in 3 or 4 years. Oh, and I assume that half billion farm machinery will run on magic energy beads made from solar power.
Mike: Once EVs are the majority of vehicles (assuming we get there in 10 or 20 years) the danger that could be caused by lithium shortages is small since lithium isn’t a consumable fuel, but essentially part of the storage tank."
Maybe 20-30 years. the average life span of an IC car is now in the mid teens and many are on the road at 20-30 years old. Heck, in Cuba they still drive 1950s cars.
Mike:“Additionally, new chemistries are possible and completely compatible with the entire EV charging infrastructure.”
No one yet has built and shipped anything else but a Li battery for an EV other than teeny weenie cars on NiCad batteries and that mostly hybrids.
Mike:"Meanwhile, oil (separate from the CO2 and air pollution) as a transportation fuel is problematic since once you build the infrastructure and engines you are stuck with it. "
Unless you consider the ethanol joke, which takes as much fossil fuel per gallon to make it as it gives you even less mileage per gallon. A few years ago, manufacturers pitched ‘Flex fuel’ cars. Did anyone care? Did anyone buy ethanol at 30% more to put in their care (E85) which gave them 30% less mileage? Of course not. Now, I don’t even think you can buy a ‘flex fuel’ car.
Mike: Whereas, EVs can use whatever battery tech you want and has a diverse choice of ways to charge the batteries; such as home solar or grid (solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, coal, NG, etc.) You can even use gas to run a generator in an emergency. Try making your own gas. What are you going to do…grow corn."
The government won’t allow you to make your own ethanol. prohibited.
So far, no one has come up with anything other than Li batteries…
Mike:“The advantage of not being reliant on a single supply chain means the system is more reliable.EVs even make gas cars more reliable since the peak demand on the pipeline infrastructure is eased.”
so far, the Chinese control 90% of the world’s lithium refining. That won’t change soon.
So far, the oil infrastructure seems to work well. Other than idiots blocking pipelines in New England so they have to import NG from outside the USA.
EVs are not the panacea to solve supply chain problems.