The Road to Stalin

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Stalin’s rule was incredibly brutal to the Russian people. “The Gulag Archipelago,” by Alexander Solzhenitsyn, describes how Stalin killed and imprisoned Russians indiscriminately (including farmers, engineers and members of various ethnic groups). Stalin’s motto was, “Death solves all problems. No man, no problem.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality_in_the_Soviet…

Stalin’s KGB imposed a regime of terror, with people forced to inform on their own family and friends. The USSR was permeated with propaganda which George Orwell called “newspeak” in the novel, “1984.” Citizens were not allowed to listen to non-Stalinist information, much less leave the USSR for other countries.

Stalin’s evil ways are gone forever, right?

Maybe not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/russia-ukrai…

**A War the Kremlin Tried to Disguise Becomes a Hard Reality for Russians**

**Moscow posted a death toll from its attack on Ukraine for the first time, and Russians who long avoided politics are now grappling with the fact that their country is fighting a deadly conflict.**
**By Ivan Nechepurenko and Anton Troianovski, The New York Times, March 2, 2022**

**...**

**This week, lawmakers proposed a 15-year prison sentence for people who post “fakes” about the war, and rumors are swirling about soon-to-be-closed borders or martial law. The Education Ministry scheduled a video lesson to be shown in schools nationwide on Thursday that described the war against Ukraine as a “liberation mission.”...**

**Some feared that Mr. Putin could go even further, repressing dissent to an extent unseen in Russia since Soviet times. Tatiana Stanovaya, a scholar who has long studied Mr. Putin, wrote it was “more than logical” to expect that lawmakers this week would approve the imposition of martial law in order to block the open internet, ban all protests and restrict Russians from being able to leave the country.**

**Such speculation, fed by how quickly the Kremlin was moving to block access to individual news media outlets and arrest protesters, has led increasing numbers of Russians to flee the country....Echo of Moscow, Russia’s flagship liberal-leaning radio station, was taken off the air on Tuesday for the first time since the Soviet coup attempt of 1991. Leading staff members of Dozhd, Russia’s only remaining independent television channel, left the country on Wednesday after access to its website was blocked....** [end quote]

Russia calls the Ukraine invasion a “special military operation,” not a war or invasion.

Putin is walking the road to Stalin. Little by little, Russian freedoms are being curtailed. The free press is being shut down and journalists are leaving because they feel personally threatened.

It’s impossible to say how far Putin will walk this road. But he’s aggressive and merciless. Once started, it will be hard to stop.

Wendy

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It’s impossible to say how far Putin will walk this road. But he’s aggressive and merciless. Once started, it will be hard to stop.

I don’t know. There was a leader once who said “Death solves all problems. No man, no problem.”

Cheers
Qazulight

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Russia calls the Ukraine invasion a “special military operation,” not a war or invasion.

Putin is walking the road to Stalin. Little by little, Russian freedoms are being curtailed. The free press is being shut down and journalists are leaving because they feel personally threatened.

It’s impossible to say how far Putin will walk this road. But he’s aggressive and merciless. Once started, it will be hard to stop.

=============================================================================

This is little rant of yours on Putin is rather disingenuous because not too long ago you said USA has no dog in the Ukraine/Russia fight. When did you wake up to the threat of Putin?

The Europeans have been worried about Putin for 20 years. They knew what he could do and wanted to do. It became even more of an issue during the previous administration because Putin was being given comfort for his actions.

Jaak

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<This is little rant of yours on Putin is rather disingenuous because not too long ago you said USA has no dog in the Ukraine/Russia fight. When did you wake up to the threat of Putin?>

In the OP, I am talking about the threat of Putin to the Russian population.

The USA has no dog in the Ukraine/ Russia fight. Although I am sympathetic to Ukraine and support sending them aid, I still believe that the U.S. military should not fight Russia in Ukraine, including air, sea or land forces. That would change if Russia were to invade a NATO country.

Nukes. World War 3. Be careful.
Wendy

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The Europeans have been worried about Putin for 20 years.

But not enough to fund NATO properly (2% of GDP).

But not enough to stop relying on Russian oil and gas.

The Captain
worry without action is useless and harmful to self

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But not enough to fund NATO properly (2% of GDP).

That number was never ‘hard’ though apparently when convenient for political purpose it re-emerges often? After the Soviet wall came down pretty well all of the NATO nations cut back significantly on defense spending … none more than Germany. I was working there at the time. The funds were mostly diverted to rebuild East Germany.

When the towers came down in New York … everything changed again. While technically not in the NATO bailiwick many of the NATO nations raced in to help anyway … and ended up stuck there for years.

Germany had a really cleverly designed artillary gun that could create a barrage of (I think 6 or 7?) 155mm shells landing all at the same time by changing the elevation and charge, that the Americans rather envied. }};-D

They had planned to buy a whole bunch of them but due to the end of the Cold War cancelled most of them.

Tim

I think this is it. http://www.military-today.com/artillery/pzh_2000.htm

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But not enough to fund NATO properly (2% of GDP).
—
That number was never ‘hard’ though apparently when convenient for political purpose it re-emerges often?

Europe was certainly not prepared to defend its interests, as this article from 2007 on defense spending points out (the EU couldn’t even support an effort to calm things down in Darfur because of a lack of cargo planes):

Inadequate Funding Creating Defense Problems for Europe
www.forecastinternational.com/press/release.cfm?article=128

Another case in point from 2007:

Europe needs more helicopters for Chad force
https://sudantribune.com/article24872/

And from 2008:

Russian helicopters for Chad expose EU shortfall
www.reuters.com/article/idUSLT592090
The European Union expects Russia to supply it with helicopters for its Chad peace mission despite its dispute with Moscow over Georgia. The 27-nation EU hopes to reach agreement to allow the supply of four Russian transport helicopters in November, EU officials said on Monday, ahead of an EU meeting this week to discuss ways to fill the bloc’s military capability gaps.

DB2

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In fairness to the Europeans, particularly 15-20 years ago, the threat from Russia seemed to be quite minimal compared to the threat from the USSR in the 80s. Back then, there was still some optimism that at least Putin seemed to be a competent leader (as opposed to the widespread incompetence that reigned under Yeltsin).

Even so, the EU combined military stacks up reasonably well compared to the Russians (numbers below from 2018):

Defense Spending

1.European Union: 226 billion dollars (1.5% of combined GDP)

2.Russia: $ 47 billion

Nuclear Strengths

1. UK 160 deployed warheads + 65 in reserve, France 290 deployed warheads + 10 in reserve

2.Russia: 1,920 deployed warheads + 5,380 warheads in the wings or ready for dismantlement

Land Weapons

1.European Union: 6,700 tanks, 48,971 armored fighting vehicles, 2,312 self-propelled guns, 3,492 towed-artillery, and 1,069 multiple launch rocket Systems

2.Russia: 15,400 tanks, 31,300 armored fighting vehicles, 5,972 self-propelled guns, 4,625 towed artillery and 3,793 multiple launch rocket systems

Air Force

1.European Union: 6,751 aircrafts + a handful of leading fighter jets

2.Russia: Air Force: 3,100 aircrafts including multi-role fighter Sukhoi-35 and interceptor MiG-31

Navy

1.European Union: 61 submarines, 102 frigates, 21 destroyers, 39 corvettes, 167 Mine Warfare Craft, 210 patrol craft, and 4 aircraft carriers

2.Russia: 60 submarines, 4 frigates, 15 destroyers, 81 corvettes, 45 mine warfare craft, 14 patrol craft and only one aircraft carrier

http://www.aalep.eu/eu-vs-russia-military-strengths

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saunafool
Navy

1.European Union: 61 submarines, 102 frigates, 21 destroyers, 39 corvettes, 167 Mine Warfare Craft, 210 patrol craft, and 4 aircraft carriers

2.Russia: 60 submarines, 4 frigates, 15 destroyers, 81 corvettes, 45 mine warfare craft, 14 patrol craft and only one aircraft carrier***

Good list, useful comparisons. Accuracy is assumed?

***Missing from the list: The tug boat assigned to shepherd the single aircraft carrier, and take care of it when the carrier’s propulsion fails. Which apparently is frequent.

Given that scenario, planners would do well to take whatever is spent on it and deploy the funds elsewhere. It is NOT a viable asset, not even for its ‘show’ value.

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“That number was never ‘hard’ though apparently when convenient for political purpose it re-emerges often?”

I can still remember reading articles about the “peace dividend” coming our (USA) way
after the wall came down. Get a good chuckle out of that now, what a bunch of fools we were
thinking that military spending would ever be cut. As far as I know, the Pentagon has still
never been able to complete an audit, let alone pass an audit. It sounds like the NATO
countries actually acted on the wall coming down as a way to reign in military spending.
That is taboo in the USA.

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But not enough to fund NATO properly (2% of GDP).

=======================================

The Eastern Europeans countries, UK and France have been at near or above 2% of GDP for years.

The big NATO countries of Turkey (1.57%), Italy (1.41%), Germany (1.53%), Canada (1.39%) and Spain (1.02%) have been the big disappointments.

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2021/6/pd…

Germany’s $65 billion in 2021 was just last week increased by $113 billion:

Mr. Scholz announced a one-time increase of 100 billion euros ($113 billion) for defense spending and a pledge to spend more than 2 percent of Germany’s economic output annually on defense. He also proposed enshrining that threshold in the country’s Constitution, ensuring that future governments follow it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-mili…

Jaak

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what a bunch of fools we were thinking that military spending would ever be cut

Military spending as a percent of GDP has been declining in the last 40 years. International trade is now much more valuable than the ability to invade your neighbor and steal their resources.

US Military Spending 5.0% in 1976, 3.3% in 2016 (percent of GDP).
Germany Military Spending 3.1% in 1976, 1.2% in 2016 (percent of GDP).
USSR and Russia Military Spending 12% in 1976, 5.4% in 2016 (percent of GDP).
World Military Spending 3.6% in 1976, 2.2% in 2016 (percent of GDP).

https://www.multpl.com/us-military-spending
https://www.multpl.com/germany-military-spending
https://www.multpl.com/russia-military-spending
https://www.multpl.com/world-military-spending
https://nintil.com/the-soviet-union-military-spending/

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“Military spending as a percent of GDP has been declining in the last 40 years”

you trust the numbers ?
has the USA military ever been successfully audited ?

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/19/997961646/the-pentagon-has-ne…

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you trust the numbers ?
has the USA military ever been successfully audited ?

+++
+++

Does it MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE when the gubbermint spends more than it receives???

Is MONEY any thing different than what the Fed Reserve sez it is?

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