A few days ago I watched one of those wildlife nature shows about the African Savannah where comparisons/transition from the drought/dry season to the storm/rainy season chronicles the effects on the lives of the usual suspects of the animal kingdom - or something similar to that. You know the one… where the dry seasons is really hard on the animals and then the wet season restores abundance and equilibrium.
Now…if you look really, really hard - you can sort of see the same pattern to the 1st Qtr precipitous drop in the markets and its “April showers bring May flowers” type recovery. (I told you: you have to look really really hard). And if you have the ability to look really, really hard then a natural and logical question becomes highly mission critical/perplexingly natural and logical: So if April represents the rainy season for this current market - has it restored market equilibrium? And the answer is simple: maybe/maybe not. Friday was the day I decided to lean into the ‘maybe not’ side of things. Its complicated.
For example - suppose you do not have a backyard swimming pool and decide you want one. You have to consider location, shape - regular or free style, do you want a sun deck, water features, salt pool or not, pool lighting, color coating, what tile to use, Travertine edging or not, do you go with pavers or sculpted concrete decking, birdcage enclosure or not, etc.. etc. And then you’re not done. Do you add an outdoor kitchen - where to place the TV - what pool furniture to add, You have to consider what pool equipment to buy, do you want fire/water bowl features. I mean…something that seems so simple can quickly become a logistics, expense, and construction nightmare. And if anything the stock market is much more complicated with just as many considerations. All of which led me to this post and the decision I made on Friday
I decided that for sure the market had hit the wet season but am completely unsure about the whole Equilibrium and restoration to normal market chaos as opposed to the ‘drought’ season chaos. So, after 15 minutes of dedicated deep and intensive thought - I decided that the Easy Money had been made and decided to exit the growth market by liquidating the entire Growth port: Book the easy money, invest and run away and live to invest another day sort of thingy. So - that’s exactly what I did; which, all things considered makes me either a dirty rotten market timer - which we all know is impossible to do - or - perhaps a cautiously stalky or ambush growth stock predator So what’s the plan?
The plan is to spend some time researching things and edge back into the market as the market might allow by creating one perfect growth portfolio; which after some thought this morning, might be exactly what the now defunct growth port was before the perhaps ill-advised exit strategy came into play. We’ll see I suppose, but by and large I am in no hurry.
All the Best,
Big Dumb Hick Investing