Those vanishing jobs

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Just to put that in perspective it is less than a .05% revision. Which is not uncommon. What is amazing is that almost 1 million jobs is less than a .05% revision. That shows how strong the growth of jobs has been in the last 4 years.

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Here’s a Sept 2022 headline:

Powell flat out stated that UNemployment would have to rise some, in order to stop the inflation.

{ In plain English, that means unemployment. The Fed forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% next year, from 3.7% today — a number that implies an additional 1.2 million people losing their jobs. }

The current ā€œrevised down jobs numbersā€ fit Powell’s Sept 2022 narrative. :chart_with_upwards_trend:

Powell is more likely to cut rates tomorrow, 23 Aug, and perhaps more likely to cut by 0.5.

It’s gonna be interesting to watch the media hysteria.

:dollar:
ralph

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If we need more unemployment to curb inflation why is he lowering rates…? So, what’s the perfect interest rate/employment/inflation number where at everything stays perfect? These people are crazy

It has been crazy times. But it does look like we are coming in for a soft landing. I have to give Powell props for that if he can do it.

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I’m curious about this statement and number. 818,000 is less than 0.05% of what exactly?

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Good question.

818K/0.0005 = 1.6 billion

The population of India is ā€˜only’ 1.4 billion.

DB2

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Of course. Can’t ask the ā€œJCsā€ to accept a slightly smaller profit margin. That would be ā€œcommunistical big gummitā€. Therefore the option preferred by the money interests the Fed represents is making people fearful of losing their job, so pay rates can be cut.

Steve

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From the article posted by Divitias.

The report reveals that job creation in the U.S. for the 12 months ending in March was 0.5% lower than previously estimated.

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I saw a similar quote earlier in a news story, I forget where. But it was 0.5%, not 0.05%, and I believe it’s the amount of the revision vis a vis the total working population.

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Something is not quite right in that math. If about 1 million jobs is 0.05%, then about 100 million jobs would be 5%, which would indicate a total job count around 2 billion.

I know moonlighting is a thing — I did it myself for years — but I don’t think there are that many more jobs than working aged people in the US.

Regards,
-Chuck

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Right I misquoted the article. The actual number in the article was .5%. I apologize.

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It is 0.5%. Given a total US workforce of ~160-million, 1.6-million is 1%. 0.5% = 800k. So 818k is about 0.5% (roughly).

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