Thought regarding UPST

Much of this is speculation. Just putting out an idea of something that could be. Make your own conclusions.

Daniel Loeb of Third Point is (or was) a 10% owner of UPST stock. When you own more than 10% of a company’s stock, you have to report sales publicly and within a day or two of the transaction. Once you get below 10%, you no longer need to do that - you just have to report within 45 days after the end of the quarter in which you make the sale.

In the last month Mr. Loeb made several sales that got him below the 10% threshold. I am guessing that perhaps the big drop in the stock price in the last week might possibly be him liquidating the rest of his shares - in combination with general market weakness.

Someone from his company had been a director at UPST until recently. Whatever happened to make him leave (or possibly he was asked to leave) might have caused a rift between UPST and Third Point leading to them selling all their shares. We won’t know if Loeb sold out completely until funds have to report buys/sells next quarter.

When a large owner liquidates their shares quickly, it can cause the stock to drop farther than you might think possible. I saw it a couple years ago on another company after the CEO was forced to resign and he sold all his shares within a month.

This is just a guess on my part - it could just be wishful thinking. But if this is what is happening, I’m hopeful we see a good bounce after he’s all done selling.

I had sold all of my UPST a month ago. I just bought a small amount back today. I also had a put assigned to me today that I had sold at $320 strike thinking it was a “safe” thing to do. Ouch.



Miserable time to have a large insider dumping shares. At the same time, I hope that’s all it is vs. me having overlooked some fundamental problem with the business. $299 cost basis, 15% position at cost. :broken_heart:

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