TMDX - Updated Total US Transplant Charts

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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These charts are for the TOTAL number of transplants in the US. We do not know what % of these are provided by TMDX. However, I think it is safe to assume that a continuing trend of increases in the total compared to previous years is mostly because of TMDX NOP and the OCS technology.

Lung:
Week 21 - 1,185 transplants in 2023 - vs 1,051 in 2022.
YoY increase = 134. YoY % increase = 12.7%.

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Heart:
Week 21 - 1,785 total transplants in 2023 - vs 1,550 in 2022.
YoY increase = 235. YoY % increase = 15.1%.

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Liver:
Week 21 - 4,200 total transplants in 2023 - vs 3,756 in 2022.
YoY increase = 444. YoY % increase = 11.8%.

Note on Lung data - I have seen a comment on twitter stating that some of the lung increase may be through centers using the Paragonix device. I have no way of knowing if that is accurate, but thought I should share it. TMDX said they were going to be making a concerted effort in the lung transplants, so it’s also very possible that the increase is coming from TMDX.

Recent news article about U Michigan doing their first DCD Heart transplant - obtained using the TMDX OCS device.

The American Transplant Congress is going on this weekend. Have seen a few tweets related to positive presentations about TMDX and OCS.

Peace

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Forgot to attach liver chart:
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so there is an increase of ~800 procedures y/y just so far this year.
… remember, last year total 1000 procedure that TMDX supported…
While Paragonix should have impact on this, most of this should be enabled / driven by OCP and TMDX… this bodes well for TMDX

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https://www.investors.com/research/the-new-america/tmdx-stock-meteoric-rise-on-a-paradigm-shift-in-organ-transplants/

The Paradigm Shift That Helped Top-Notch Stock TransMedics Grow 162%

The vast majority of donated organs never make it to their transplant recipient. TransMedics (TMDX) is looking to change that, and TMDX stock investors are taking notice.
TransMedics provides solutions across the organ donation chain. Its Organ Care System, known as OCS, keeps donated organs alive while in transport. And its network, the National OCS Program, handles the logistics of getting donated hearts, lungs and kidneys to patients across the country.

It used to be that the majority of transplants were local because the organs could not be preserved long enough for nationwide use. For that reason, only 10%-30% of donated organs ever get used. TMDX solves that with their system. OCS represents a disruptive technology that could potentially revolutionize solid organ preservation and transport.

Every day in the U.S., 18 people die waiting for a new heart, lungs or liver, he says.

OCS presents a paradigm shift in the solid organ preservation and transport space, potentially allowing for not only better transplant outcomes and better economics, but also increasing the donor pool of organs that can be used for transplantation in end-stage disease patients.

With that change (OCS), the rate of organ acceptance by nearly all leading transplant centers flipped overnight to more than 90% national or distant allocation and only less than 10% local allocation.

Analysts expect TransMedics to report its first adjusted profits in 2024.

That “exploding” demand is due to TransMedics’ National OCS Program, Jennings said.

And TransMedics is adding another line to its services. The company wants to build out its own fleet of jets to transport donated organs.(So will they become capital intensive and ruin their gross margins and need more debt??) but…
“Concerns surrounding TransMedics’ strategy to take full control of National OCS Program transportation logistics should subside now that the company has secured capital to fund the initiative and taken initial strategic steps to hire experienced individuals to run operations,”

there are now 40 centers using TransMedics’ National OCS Program for heart transplants, and 32 and nine in liver and lung transplants, respectively. There could be upside from the lung segment and international sales are a greenfield opportunity, he said.

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