Smci is above the 21 ema and hitting against the 50 day on strong volume.
Andy
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Dell also up big. This could be in anticipation of great NVDA earnings. It broke above the downtrend yesterday on lower volume. This could have been a signal to be watching the stock closely this morning Doing so would have clued a trader into the strong volume and constant ascent as shown in the 5 minute chart below.
Dell had a gap up then a continuous move to the upper right.
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Update on NU. Finished the day nice on 5/15 earnings gap. I am considering an early buy on this one.
Just because I sold out for a better prospect before earnings does not mean I should ignore the good earnings. Nothing wrong with changing you mind when the facts change.
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Good stuff. Thanks.
I actually had a small LEAPs position in MNDY I trimmed on the pop and then rebought half of what I sold on the slight intraday dip. I’ll probably look to add more based on the above.
On IOT, I actually sold some $42 covered calls on ~0.5% worth in our main account for Friday. I’ll probably look to roll for a credit if we’re still in this neighborhood knowing there’s some upward momentum.
I have a very small trading account (mostly LEAPs) outside the account I post at Saul’s. Most of my action in there has been NVDA, SMCI, SNOW, MNDY, and MELI this year. So far, it’s been profitable for me, and I can totally see how this can help especially with entries.
Thanks for the updates.
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CRWD: Mike Webster reviewed Crowdstrike in the Friday video and says it has a cup without handle and his considers that it broke out 2 days ago (as opposed to waiting for the old high of $365 that is $20 away. See the marked up chart for the area of resistance he is talking about. Look at the great growth rankings.
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As noted, I am trying to reallocate my Saul positions based on strength of the chart and IBD fundamentals. Currently AXON, NU and ELF are ugly and get no allocation.
Today I wanted to buy some more MNDY and CRWD and decided the wise thing to do would be to sell out NVDA before earnings. I love my NVDA but I tried to be rational and acknowledge that I have a large core holding from 2016, I have some in my MF portfolios and I have some as an IBD holding with a good profit margin. Therefore, I de-risk a little by selling my “Saul” position and reallocation to MNDY and CRWD. As noted in previous post, I like the chart formation and love the fundamental rankings for CRWD. It technically broke past resistance a couple days ago. I bought an initial position in MNDY on the gap up day and contemplated adding yesterday, so I did it today at a much hiring price. But it did break into the buy zone with 70% vol above average. I will be down 1% by the close, but I just needed to pull the trigger.
IOT and CELH still looking good. Taking a little rest, but still worth holding.
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ELF reported earnings and beat, but…forward guidance was weak and it is off 11% after hours. It was below the 50dma and will now be below the 200dma.
SNOW up 9.5% after hours (not in Saul’s portfolio anymore)
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Elf beat on Sales by 12 percent but you are right they are guiding for 22 percent growth next year. Also their OM margins came down to 5.3 percent due to high SG&A.
Surprised Snow is up because they missed on earnings. But they raised Guidance. Need to listen to both CC.
Andy
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Simon Sez review of Saul stocks…
AXON is almost ready to buy…
CELH would be a sell based on the rules…
Guess it should have been sold on the green line going under the red line.
IOT had a sell signal recently.
My documented sell plan for IOT was this…
(5/23/2024) Sell Plan:
Sell tomorrow if bad day, or Simon Sez sell. definitely if below 21dma.
Simon Sez was better on this one. Now below the 21dma. Will check the news and probably sell.
News: CELH stock plummeted below a key technical moving average early Tuesday after Morgan Stanley put out a cautious note regarding the latest sales trend data for energy drink maker Celsius.
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Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian in a Tuesday research note warned that sales growth for Celsius Holdings (CELH) appears to be slowing based on the latest Nielsen retail trend data, Seeking Alpha reported. The firm noted that Celsius sales growth slowed sequentially to a 39% clip for the week ending May 18. The energy drink maker’s market share also dipped to 10.5% for the week from 10.8% from the week prior.
Meanwhile, Celsius’ pricing for the period was down 7.2% year over year.
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I’m on vacation and I noticed that whenever I stopped for coffee or a break, that in the little gas stations that sell soft drinks and coffee along with snacks, that Celsius was a popular energy drink for travelers. Just an anecdotal report…doc
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Celh has a distribution contract with Pepsi and they are trying to get their inventory right. Some of their distribution points have been taking less product but after this quarter it should straighten out. But today they were slaughtered. It came back above the 50 day line though. It was a report that they were losing market share for the week. They went from 10.8 percent to 10.5 percent according to Nielsen. Kind of granular tracking week to week. I want to see a trend. But my cost basis is a lot lower so I can afford to let it run a little.
Andy
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I did not sell CELH yet, but I did sell IOT and bought back some AXON based on the Joan-of-Arc chart signaling a buy. SS would have sold it a couple days ago, same for CELH. I added to ELF today.
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It looks like CELH and IOT are still trending red, but AXON turning north. The thing I remember from the Saul guys is one of them trades IOT i believe. He said he buys it in the low 30’s and sells it in the 40’s or something like that. He referred to it as some sort of cash making machine. Thats a pretty smart strategy like swing trading it with the SS rules that we are discussing…doc
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Sold 1/2 my SMCI shares it’s been living under the 50 day for awhile now and I want to get my strategy right with IBD. I should have sold it all but I have had this stock for awhile and still believe in the company.
Sold 1/2 my CELH shares. They went under the 50 day yesterday but popped back up. I was hoping they would stay above but they slid back under today so I sold half my shares. Keeping an eye on them for now.
Andy
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Sold MNDY and CRWD today, based on SS chart and other support factors. MNDY fell below my sell plan area. CRWD was dragged down by OKTA and maybe CRM, but went below 21dma (to confirm SimonSez).
I only have some AXON and ELF left. Bought a little SARK because ARKK gets hurt more in a downturn.
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Pete,
Per Quill’s system and rules, you were two days late in getting out of MNDY and three days late using my tweak.
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My understanding of an effective trading system is where you catch most of the rise and miss the downturns. In this case, I think that the different systems did their job just like your tweaks would have IMHO…doc
“My understanding of an effective trading system is where you catch most of the rise and miss the downturns.”
Doc,
No trading system avoids “the downturns”. Tries to minimize them? Yes. But cannot avoid them unless one’s idea of “trading” is to sit on the sidelines. And “effective” is a very subjective term that only becomes measurable/meaningful in light of its user’s stated objectives.
The so-called “IBD system” does NOT make crisp, timely entries and exits, especially not so when compared to Quill’s basic, no-frills system. It’s a very sloppy, fuzzy, subjective system that is founded on --and bets on-- the Greater Fool Theory. (GFT)
For sure, there are lots of ways to gain “crispness” and ‘timeliness’. But they also come at a cost most can’t pay in terms of discipline, work ethic, and attention to detail. So, selecting a trading system depends --as always-- on a user’s objectives for engaging the financial casinos, and most people are willing to settle for “good enough”. But that’s not Quill, nor the reason he builds trading systems, nor the reason I do, either.
Quill likens his search for “the perfect trading system” to a search for The Holy Grail. (THG). It won’t be found, of course. It can’t be found, because it doesn’t exist. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t embark on his quest daily, sharing what he finds along his journey.
I’ve been arguing with the guy for years, both in this forum and by near daily emails we swap back and forth. There is no trading system available to retail traders/investor that does a better of pulling more money out of markets than they bring to them. The hassle with using his system is that ‘simple’ never is simple. It’s a Zen thing that I’ll explore another time. Now, at market’s close, week’s close, and month’s close, it’s time to roll some miles and to water my garden before I get back to prepping for Monday’s open.
Charlie
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AXON: SS shows TSI lines merged after a recent buy sign. AXON seemed to test the lows of the big blue earnings bar on Friday.
CELH: still heading down on SS, price chart shows a bear flag consolidation.
ELF: still a hold on SS. Price chart shows it holding above 50 and 21dma.
NU: SS shows TSI merged, has a frowny face. Price chart shows continued support at 21/50 (merged) after the earnings pop.
MNDY: SS shows a sell a couple days ago. Price chart shows it bouncing off support at the 21dma.
CRWD: SS shows a sell a couple days ago. Price chart shows it unable to retake 50dma.
NVDA: SS shows TSI about to cross and a frowny on Thursday. Price chart shows well above 21dma, but Friday was a down day on above average volume.
IOT: SS shows continued decline, no smiley face. Price chart shows below 50dma and continued ugly declines on very high volume.
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Thanks, @PuddinHead42. I continue to follow along here.
I went a little contrarian on IOT, not because of the chart but because of the business. If I remember right, that $39-40 resistance temporarily became support a couple weeks ago. I had trimmed our position at $38 and again at $41. I just rebought those shares late last week at $35 and $33. My reason wasn’t the chart but because I think IOT will give us another good report on Thursday.
Samsara has been a strange one. It tends to pop with earnings before slowly and steadily drifting down into the next report. I did something similar last report selling some shares at $38 and getting back in under $35. I don’t know if that pattern will hold this time around, but I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Thanks again for continuing to comment here. I can’t say it’s going to make me start or exit a position (I don’t understand it well enough yet), but it’s been very helpful in thinking about adding or trimming around core positions.
As an aside, I didn’t sell any of our large CRWD position but did cover ~10% of our share with Jun14 $360C’s for $16. I’d love the chance to decide on letting some go for an effective $376 if I can get it.
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