In a note to clients, analyst Ryan Brinkman writes that Tesla’s performance has “collapsed for all financial and performance metrics across all time periods through the end of the decade…” As such, JPMorgan says, “We advise investors cautiously approach this expectation within the context of both execution risk and the time value of money.”
Brinkman placed a Sell rating on TSLA stock with a $145 price target, which is 60% below where the shares currently trade. Tesla’s stock is already down 20% this year, making it the worst-performing member of the Magnificent Seven mega-cap technology companies.
I get JPMorgan Chase research as well as MorganStanley. I have read them since the IPO. As I recall, Chase has had the same analyst for all these years. MorganStanley changed theirs a little over a year ago. Brinkman at chase is very conservative. Jonas and his successor at MorganStanley have drunk all the KoolAid Tesla has ever offered and even mixed up more on their own as a bonus. What I have concluded is that if you discount both MS and JPM valuations and pick a $$$ amount somewhere in between the two you get a reasonable approximation of the market.
Brinkman did not reduce his valuation in this new report nor is its associated "“Underweight” rating. He did not issue a new “sell” as his underweight was previously in effect. His underweight rating and $145 PT have been around a while.
He generally has been positive on Tesla but in his latest report what he really is doing based on my read is criticize anyone who actually believes the predictions about robots until at least sometimes in the 2030s. Despite all his convoluted comparisons what came through to me is that if you’re compelled to believe Tesla’s robot hype, you should stop, think and revisit how well the robotaxi hype has worked out so far