Quill,
When threads get too long, topics become hard to follow. So I’ve taken the liberty to launch a new Teaching Simon Sez thread. Here’s your concise statement of the rules.
To BUY : Buy the first GREEN bar after the PRICE LABEL. If it is a RED bar, we wait and wait. “Be the spider ( his name is Lucas) and wait for the prey to come to you and not the inverse.”
To SELL: Sell on the first RED bar after the Price label. If it is GREEN (caution) and wait and wait. The possibility it will continue heading north.
Now comes the need for a possible tweak to help to reduce the risks of following only those two rules. In the first chart, a Low flag was planted --you call 'em Price Labels-- and a Buy signal was confirmed the following day.
Our would-be trader would have gotten in at the next day’s open and ended the day with a scratch, but would have made money the following four days.
So far, so good, right? But notice what happens on the sixth day. A red bar appears. Worse, the bar in an ‘inside day’ and a ‘doji’. Clearly, the rally is running out of steam. So, what to do? But the original two rules are silent and would have the would-be trader continue to hold.
In another thread, I suggested a time-stop might be good way to grab profits or to minimize risks. Some people use the failure of that day’s price action to drop below a trailing MA (of whatever length) as a signal to continue to hold. And there are dozens of other indicators that could be used. But the problem remains of how to manage the signals that the price bars provide when those signals occur between the planting of Hi/Lo flags. So, here’s the grim reality. For failing to have a plan in place, our would-be trader got clobbered.
Charlie
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Good, let’s talk here.
Subrules:
- check the market at 1030am after the opening frenzy is over.
- check market at 3PM before closing time craziness does funny things with charts.
So, can we buy and sell at 1030 or just sell or just buy? If yesterday was the buy or sell arc, is the 1030am red/green bar certain enough at this time? There must be some reason to check at 1030. Same questions for the 3PM check.
Secret Sauce, the unstated rules
Stop loss. Does Quill ever use an automatic stop loss, or does twice daily monitoring suffice?
Does SS3 only use HA, only use OHLC, use both in a coordinated fashion, or use them in an uncoordinated fashion. @Quillnpenn , what do you do? What are you teaching your 10-year old grandson to use?
One of the SS variations use TSI as confirmation on the HA chart. Also used a 5 day triangular MA. Are those just noise now?
If the price or HA price falls below 5dma, is that a sell?
Are the offensive sell rules, like “take 50% profits after a 5% gain”
Thanks for the new thread.
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I sold IGV today with 4.23% profit. I was using the Simon Sez HA chart to buy, so I was days late (green line is my buy price), I used the OHLC (Candles actually) to sell today, which is day two and red. I looks like if I had used the regular chart to buy, I would have made a larger profit. So how are people using the HA in conjunction with regular to make decisions in the SS3 rules).
Still holding SPXS, SH, XLB, XLF, XLI, and XLU. I think those were all buys using regular charts and ignoring the HA.
Pete
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Secret Sauce…
If @Quillnpenn had bought NU on the green day after the 11.27 price label, what would Quill do today? Sell and lock in gains because of this bad reversal, or wait for a high price label to appear? THanks.
Or, does the chart wait for the end of the day before adding what seems to be an obvious place for a frowny face price label. I will check after close.
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