UCO appears to be breaking out

Here is another pic of UCO on 3/3/23.

Still looking good.

Andy

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“UCO is still looking good.”

Andy,

The “traderly” question is, “For how much longer?” Be aware of Support & Resistance are in case the fundamentals change.

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Well the candles show a little bit of hesitation but still in the Green Arindam, thanks for the support lines. Also I want to thank you for the book Stan Weinstein’s Secrets for profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. I am really finding it very interesting.

Andy

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Andy,

What I love about Weinstein’s book is his demonstration is that making sound investing decisions is doable when evidence is used. (“The tape tells all.”)

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I am about half way through and enjoying it immensely. Very easy to understand but packed with information. I am going to read it at least twice.

Andy

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On UCO, the futures price of crude started climbing at the open on 3/3 and went up all day which is why most things related to energy went up…doc

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Is there a primary time frame like one month or two months where one makes the decision to buy? I was looking at the five day, ten day one month , two month, three month and they all swing buy on different days. I really appreciate all of your input on this. I am really learning a lot, if nothing else I am finding stocks that are interesting to follow and rising in value…doc

5 day and in

1 month and in

3 month not in yet

9 months and not in yet

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Hi Doc,
Take a look at this. Notice that almost Everything is in the green, well I went long on UCO on 3/2/23 and energy was the only thing green on the heat map. On 3/2 there wasn’t a smiley face to go off of but I did have two green bars. It wasn’t off of huge volume but volume has been building.

Andy

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Hi Quill,
To my novice eyes, SOXL generated a sell signal about 2/12 or 2/13, as TSI was also trending lower. SOXS generated a buy signal around 2/13. It has been basically going sideways. I don’t see how you see SOXL going higher. I’m clearly missing something.

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Thanks for the SOXL update Quill. I also followed your QQQ purchase with a small buy of QLD. I’m looking for a new label soon after the market opens and also before the close.

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IB,

re: stockcharts

Your catchin on quickly.
Now observe when the data crosses over the 20 ema heading north for a nice ride and some profits to be had until then next signal.
Notice after Sell signal, the prices start to drop below the 20 ema and waiting to hit the next buy signal.

Simon Sez III is my cash cow.

re: the Heiken-Ashi charts

After view the how chart.
Since I jambed the chart to the left to just show at least two (2) smiley faces or Arc’s .

Simon Sez II said to SELL at the top one after the Arc being posted,

Then at the bottom, Buy one day after the Arc is posted. For confirmation observe the TSI at the bottom.

Go to the top right hand corner and find Help ?. Click on and kruz on showing the information and pictures of the upper and lower Arc’s if not had done already.

Quill -



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Mathteacher,

February 12 is on a Sunday so 2/13 is not correct and assuming there was a typo error for 2/3. It happens to me all the time.

re SOXS jamming the chart to the left wall to only show two (2) ARCs

a BUY signal occurred at the bottom of the chart on 2/3 and then there was a Sell signal on 2/23.

re: SOXL jamming the chart to the left

a SELL Signal occurred on the top of the chart on 2/3 and then there was a Buy signal on the 2/23 heading north.

Some traders were concerned that there might be a head fake and further south.

re: Stockcharts - On the last kewl trade (12/29 - 2/3 ) had made over 10K. On 2/23 bought 1000 shares.

If a baseball player comes to the plate 62 times and gets 62 successful hits for a battering average of ??

My batting average is about 999 to 1000 percent with some minor head fakes that were recoverable.
Since the " V" I had 23 out of 23 successful trades with no losses with SOXL and about the same for SOXS.

SOXS and SOXL are a Tetter Totter pair.

Anybody can accomplish this task but must follow the two (2) simple rules.

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I see it now. Thank you! I have these on my watch list now.

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Quill, I have been reviewing a lot of charts trying to see when labels repaint. From 12/29 to 2/3 I think (not sure!) there were at least 2 times (yellow arrows) when a label would have appeared for SOXL and then gone away as the price advanced without a necessary drop to show a bottom label. Did you see them during your trade? If so may I ask how should they should be handled? The 20 ema was not broken…but if a break of the 20 ema was followed the sell would not have happened on 2/3. Thanks

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IB,

I watch both pairs at the same time and see which one is making a move of do nothing, buy or sell.

At times one will show a signal direction and the other will not. If one does make a directional change, I would trade to which one reacted.

In this case I did not see any position changes. Most changes and or head fakes occur at the top label area drifting upwards and at the bottom label area the price labels move downwards. In both cases, we either had sold already at the top and wait for a one-day drop or we keep waiting for the bottom prices to settle down and start to head north with a buy signal.

I understand what you were saying and have gotten burned as a major head fake being in a Panik mode. But lost a few dollars in trying to catch up.
Sometimes I use both monitors and use a split screen on one monitor to watch both stocks at the same time. The other monitor for another pair that is getting close to decision process.

I have seen traders trade only with the 20 ema. Buy above and SELL going below.

With respect to the yellow arrows mentioned, I would SELL the following day, then BUY the following day. (whipsawing) BUT !

The problem with that, you have to have enough money in the “Available for Withdrawal” draw. (PIGGY BANK). T-2 rules applies. Unless you have 25K or greater in the draw bucket.

If the stock was sold Monday cash won’t be available until Wednesday
Tuesday on Thursday
Wednesday on Friday
Thursday on Monday
Friday on Tuesday
Holidays muddle things up.
I got caught twice for messing up with not having enough money in the piggy bank. If I did it again, I would have been slapped with a 90-day suspension of trading. I would then have jumped to my other brokers (3).

You gotta keep an eye on your piggy bank. All bets are off if you have a Margin Account. I was losing a lot of money with a Margin Account in fees, loans.

How long have you been a HODLer or Swing Trader.

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IB,
Look at the latest topic below and you will see my charts and notice the
what I was talking about when one charts show trades and the inverse does not. Look at the top chart left side ish and look down to the bottom chart where there is nothing. I would react and make the trades.

Mutual Fund Long/Short Pairs

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I did a search so I could read up on simon sez rules and the first hit was your Nov 22 post. Thank you…doc

edit: from that Nov post swing trading (teeter totter) the etf’s like soxl soxs seems so intuitive .

Thanks Quill. I appreciate your detailed reply especially regarding my question about the repainting at the yellow arrows. That is where I would have trouble deciding when to re-enter, and it looks like your experienced judgement is huge at those points. For me I need to find a purely mechanical approach…or I will suffer from analytical paralysis!!

I like the looks of combining an oscillator like CCI (over/under zero) with TSI to trade a tetter totter…or the simple crossing of ema20 that you mentioned some traders use. Also not sure I like trading full position with the inverse ETF’s since market bias is up in very long term. A lot of variables… Anyways thanks again for sharing your ideas…

" Thanks Quill. I appreciate your detailed reply, especially regarding my question about the repainting at the yellow arrows. That is where I would have trouble deciding when to re-enter, and it looks like your experienced judgement is huge at those points. For me, I need to find a purely mechanical approach…or I will suffer from analytical paralysis!!

I like the looks of combining an oscillator like CCI (over/under zero) with TSI to trade a tetter totter…or the simple crossing of ema20 that you mentioned some traders use. Also not sure I like trading full position with the inverse ETF’s since market bias is up in very long term. A lot of variables… Anyways thanks again for sharing your ideas…"

IB,

You’re not the only only who has noted that Quill often gets away with trades that one’s own rules wouldn’t allow. OTOH, he’s been doing this stuff, every day, all day long, for 20 or 30 years, and that experience allows him to finesse situation us beginners to trading should avoid, which speaks to your second point. The more filters a potential trade has to pass, or the more evidence for doing it there has to be in a chart, means that fewer bad trades are going to happen, and the smaller each profit is going to be from them. (“The early bird gets the worm.”)

OTOH, If one does accept ‘price-risk’ to reduce ‘information-risk’ --and thereby increases one’s batting average-- the net effect might be greater overall profitability, never mind peace of mind and being able to sleep at night for knowing that one does have a solid, but conservative, action plan in place and the discipline to follow it.

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Ok Quill (or Arindam–please chime in as well),
After today’s market close, I see a smiley (actually, a sad face) on SOXL and the TSI is trending down. Further, it closed below the 20MA. You were in on 2/23. Would you now be looking to get out on the next red candle and jump to SOXS, since it posted a smiley today and the TSI crossed over and is trending up (although it is below the 20MA).