UCO is starting to break out on low volume though. It has been consolidating it’s base since 11/25/22 and it could be a head fake. UCO is paired with SCO and is the Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x.
Andy
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Andy,
Kudos to you for posting. But my rules --and dislike of uncertainty-- wouldn’t trade let me trade it, for not liking “the look” of the chart.
Here’s UCO again, where yesterday’s close is at the ‘hard, right-hand edge’ , done with a conservatively built chart that filters out nearly all false starts (at the “cost” of always being a bit late to get in/out). As can be seen, the signal is, DO NOTHING.
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I continue to watch TUR and GREK. Both are holding up well over the last few months as I wait for the next entry point. I just missed the entry for ARGT but it appears to be changing direction…doc
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Doc,
Pull the holdings for ARGT. The top holding, at an inexcusable, irresponsible, 25.10% weighting, is MELI, which has an easier chart to cue off of and trade than the nearly illiquid ARGT.
That’s the problem with trying to trade nearly all “country” funds. Often, they don’t truly reflect ‘a national economy’, but what’s happening to be happening with some weird, cap-weighted index. OTOH, some of the truly obscure, very illiquid country ETFs are well and sensibly built, with holdings well distributed among companies and industries that can’t be accessed with ADRs.
If you’d be inclined, let’s start a thread on investing in “country funds”, including the now very retro CEFs, as well as the oh-so modern ETFs, and some surprisingly decent (open-end) mutual funds, some of which even offer inverses and no ST redemption fees.
An aside: And by “investing in country funds” I do mean investing in the best sense of that term, not this ‘in-and-out’ fast stuff’ easily done with TA that’s fun but not really very worthwhile in the long run.
Said another way. Nearly all investors are inclined to favor their ‘home market’, be that whatever it is. In the case of us Americans, we happen to live in a country with mature, well-capitalized markets, but not the soundest of economies or political systems. Nor do most Americans have any interest in what the other 95% of the world’s populations are doing. But some really important things are going on in the non-western world that are going to cause havoc here at home, such as the move toward ‘de-dollarization’. How to invest/trade those trends interests me.
Arindam
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MELI is a little too pricey for me. The price TA looks like it would have been a good one to have found sooner as it has done quite well. I stumbled on these country funds looking for investments that are doing better than average…doc
This chart looks like it might be something to watch…doc
DPRO - Draganfly Stock Interactive Chart - Barchart.com
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That does look like a nice chart Doc. They went up, consolidated and ready to take off again, I am thinking if they break $2.30 that it could take off. That is my newby interpretation of that chart.
Andy
Evidently barchart.com likes it too…doc
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Arindam,
whats your opinion on the DPRO chart? You and Quill are the ones who look at this with the experience that pays…doc
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DPRO gave a buy signal on the 27 th. Stockcharts confirms as well.
Note: I had to jamb the chart to the left wall in order to see the two (2) smiley faces aka ARC’s.
Also note that the TSI gave a confirmation signal.
Hope you were observing for you missed the Bus with DPRO.
Otherwise you could have been on the 23rd.
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Quill,
I agree that a case could be made for a speculative, short-term trade. But I wouldn’t attempt it. Just too much overhead supply, and not enough demand.
Quill,
You probably don’t make much use of trendlines or pay attention to patterns like flags and wedges. But I think DPRO’s chart is pretty scary, and my bet is that the next move is downward.
I think its going back down a little because its in a new trading range. Before the successful testing on detecting mines, its price was in the 80 cent range and now its going to be in $1.50 to $2.00 range - just a speculation regarding the actual numbers.
I am trying to figure out the studies that you guys use. Would you link me back to the explanations that you gave or links here at the fool for TSI etc. I know you both have differing approaches and I am trying to study them for myself. Thank you both for being so helpful and teaching…doc
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Doc,
Do you do any fishing, especially fly fishing? If so, how did you learn to cast? Maybe someone showed you. Maybe you watched a video. (Mel Kreiger is really good.) But I’ll bet you don’t do it exactly as he says, nor as does Joan Wulff, etc.
Why? Because you aren’t either of those persons, and because there’s no one right way to do any of this stuff. Seriously, if you want to learn to chart stocks, then chart stocks, lots of them, always asking if the picture you’ve drawn makes sense and if it as simple as it can be as it reveals the tugs of war between buyers and sellers that can be observed in any time frame, from charts based on 1-minute bars to those built with monthly bars.
Secondly, some charts have nothing to say. So don’t torture them into confessing to what you’d like them to say. This charting stuff, just like financial statement analysis, is just a numbers game where you’re hoping to find situations where the odds suggest a favorable outcome if you were to buy.
Arindam
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Doc,
Here’s a bit more follow up on learning to chart. If you want a crash course in tape reading, then play the Chart Game. ChartGame | Stock Market Simulation App | Learn How To Beat The Market: Whether you're an expert or just starting, refine your technical trading skills without risking your money. Play on real intraday charts, monitor your progress, and challenge your friends.
There are no indicators --which are just “eye candy” – only price bars and volume bars, which is all that’s needed.
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re: DPRO
cute charts don’t pay the rent or put food on the table. Show me where do I buy out of the gate and sell at the finish line on that cute chart.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:true_strength_index
https://research.investors.com/stock-quotes/nasdaq-draganfly-dpro.htm?fromsearch=1
Looking for Munition companies that supply USA, NATO and Ukraine.
Just bought ITA on 3/1/23 - instead of holding individual companies. ITA is an ETF holding about 39 companies. TXN makes the Tomahawks.
Holdings - iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Holdings | Seeking Alpha
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Quill,
Don’t like “cute charts”, huh? My, my. Aren’t you a crabby curmudgeon?
Here’s ITA on a 4-day chart I’m experimenting with that catches breakouts pretty quickly. If used with a three bar exit rule, money would be left on table a lot of time, but losses would be cut close to zero.
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I think more importantly is what am I learning. DPRO started out some two months ago in the 80 cent range, had some positive news and is now trading at $2.27 range (man I wish we would have bought it at .80). When it drifted down after the good news, it didn’t go down much ($1.70’s) and now it is looking bullish to the upside.
What I am seeing is an upper trend line for the last 2 weeks and a lower trend line that are both rising suggesting the bulls are in control. TSI is positive. The question I am asking myself is will this keep going up (buy) to a new higher high or bounce (sell) off the upper trend line and go back down to a new higher low (buy). The flags or triangles are positive.
How am I doing?
I’m still learning and need experience looking at these things, but this stock doesn’t have a long history of anything to evaluate, just the potential of a government contract (or many contracts from around the world) for drones to detect mines which sounds pretty cool to me…doc
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re: DPRO
To all use Stockcharts
class is session
2/16 DPRO posted a label. the next day gave a sell signal
as time moves on DPRO will climb (positive thoughts, none of this hopefully stuff) over 2.30.
If so, the label will then move over to a new position.
we don’t care, we were sold out on 2/17. We then have to wait for a new BUY signal per the rules.
Stay tuned.
re: SOXL
as previously mentioned, SOXL will slide to the right for about 6 to 8 days before it heads North.
Keep the faith and trust the charts. SOXL is heading north at this time. Once it crosses above the 20ema, we ride for as long as possible to the next Sell signal and jump onto SOXS.
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