Russia blocking international trade of grain exiting Ukraine, or other Black Sea ports connected by rail and coastal boats to Ukrainian grain depots, especially by non-Ukrainian flagged ships, opens the possibility of international military action. E.g., ships could be escorted by Romanian and/or Turkish naval vessels and various nations could provide air cover.
Obviously this would have huge macro effects of various sorts.
Thoughts?
david fb
I consider that unlikely given the risks of widening the war.
Even IF that happened, I don’t see it making much difference because Russia could just disrupt the rail systems servicing the port and there would be nothing to put into the ships… you aren’t going to fill up bulk freighters from trucks.
Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
Yes, indeed, and that is precisely why I think it might happen and why I brought it up.
Ukraine entering NATO can not happen now or any time soon both for legal reasons embedded in the NATO accords and for pragmatic reasons. But that does not mean that the major players in NATO would not like to see Ukraine win real damn fast and would like to find a safe enough pretext to help do that.
How can NATO nations intervene on much less dangerous and difficult terms? Well, how about Russia gets sucker maneuvered (Kerch Bridge attack almost perfect for that) into violating international law and creatng trouble for everyone from China, struggling with food costs, and Africa and others struggling with starvation by blocking international shipments in international waters (Black Sea)? I am speculating that could be enough to get Turkey, the great power and guarantor of Black Sea commerce, to use F-16s and other means to defend international commerce with USA/NATO acquiesence, knocking out some Russian assets while they were at it.
Hmmm?
david fb
Precedent: Oil tankers were US flagged to stop Iran from bombing them.
Wasn’t it something like that what escalated the death of archduke into a world war?
The Captain
Because the US was looking for an excuse to have a war with Iran. The USN was escorting the tankers into Kuwait and Iraq too. In a touch of irony, the tankers could take a mine hit better than the USN frigates, so the tankers broke trail, with the warships training behind. In another touch of irony, the one USN frigate that was attacked, was attacked by Iraq, one of the countries the US was helping. The one Iranian aircraft shot down by the USN was a civilian airliner on a scheduled flight.
But the oil must flow. Profits depend on it.
Steve
More than profits. The world economy depends upon it – China, Japan, South Korea, India, Singapore, the euro zone et cetera.
DB2