YTD return: -8.76%
2020 return: 159%
March Delta YTD My pf -16.5% - ARKK -12.57% -0.31% ARKW -11.47% -6.07% S&P +4.4% -14.96% QQQ +0.59% -9.48%
So, my portfolio performed significantly worse during March than the broader S&P, QQQ indexes and also worse than the two ARK ETFs. Am also trailing all four benchmarks on an YTD basis. Interested to see how this pans out as the year rolls on.
CrowdStrike 10.08% Roku 9.58% Sea Ltd 9.11% Twilio 9.08% Peloton 7.00% Pinterest 7.00% Etsy 5.74% Mercado Libre 5.08% CuriosityStream 4.60% Matterport 4.60% Farfetch 4.00% Skillz 4.00% Fiverr 3.72% Lightspeed 3.30% Voyager Digital 1.96% Katapult 1.77% SoFi 1.70% Ondas 0.85% Cash 6%
A Financial Services Platform with aspirations of becoming a super-app with products in Investing, Cash Accounts, Credit Cards, Student Loans, Personal Loans, Home Loans, Insurance, SMB financing. However, revenues from their Lending products i.e., Student, Home, Personal loans is 88% of their total revenue in Q4 20. So, they are primarily a lending company at this point and everything else is not yet proven.
Their organic growth came about 20% in 2020 but are guiding for ~50% organic growth in 2021 and 58% when including revenues from their Q2 2020 Galileo, a digital payments platform acquisition. Percentage of non-lending members of the total members grew from 14% in Q1 2019 to 64% as of Q4 2020.
A SPAC with expected merger in May that operates in non-prime BNPL space. In addition to having their direct customers like Wayfair, Lenovo, non-prime customers from Affirm flow to Katapult. Their LTM YoY% Revenue growth is expected to be +171% and their CEO said in a recent interview that they had met their 2020 expectations although they haven’t officially released their 2020 numbers yet. At EOD Friday stock price of $13.86, their current EV is ~$1.4B and with 2020E revenue of $250M, their LTM EV/Rev is 5.6 along with Adj EBITDA margin of 16%.
They provide Cloud-based POS and related solutions for businesses. I believe most customers subscribe to Shopify and Square for their cookie cutter POS solutions but, there will always be businesses and industries where there is a need for more complex POS solutions. Yes, Square and Shopify has APIs that will allow for some customization, but these merchant businesses typically don’t have inhouse technology talent to first develop and then maintain any complex applications on their own and that’s where Lightspeed niche solutions find product-market fit. Lightspeed are openly acquisitive which makes sense for their niche industry I suppose. As I exited from Square, I was looking for a replacement play in FinTech and Lightspeed fit the bill and I like their prospects as the physical world opens up.
Added to Positions
Since my brief intro to the company below, they have added Android App for 3D capturing. Their share price tumbled -22% since Feb along with everything else. Also, they are projecting a 43% YoY growth for 2021, down from 87% in 2020 and this is making me re-think my allocation % especially in relation to SoFi and Katapult.
Matterport’s all-in-one 3D data platform enables anyone to turn a physical space into an immersive digital twin and share it with others to connect and collaborate in 3D.
For example, they sell a camera to 3D scan a building, allow for storage and massaging of that scanned data in their cloud, render 3D images and models for experiencing spatial data. So basically, a Google Streetview like experience for inside a building.
What is a digital twin and its value?
A Matterport digital twin is the most accurate virtual 3D model of a real place - whether it be a room, an entire building, or an outdoor space. Digital twins enable industries like real estate, hospitality, construction, and insurance to simplify how they work and connect with customers and vendors (excerpt from their website)
Reading the above, I was wondering if there is really no one else already bigger or better than them. They slate some big Real Estate companies as their customers in Redfin, KW, CENTURY, Travel Hospitality companies like Airbnb, Vacasa, Hyatt, HomeAway, Insurance/Repair companies like Nationwide, Belfor etc. For these companies, a 3D modeling of their digital catalog is a key component of their business (say, as opposed to a food vendor for their canteen) and if Matterport is good for them, then I’m convinced of their viability even if there are other competitors and Autodesk, Adobe and the likes stepping on their toes in the future. Of course, their financials should support this, and they are amongst the minority from all the recent SPACs with some real revenues.
Revenue – 46M
Subscription Rev% of Total Rev= 54%
Total Gross Margin% = 48%
Operating Margin% = (-)68%
Revenue – 86M
YoY% = 87%
Subscription Rev% of Total Rev = 52%
YoY = 80%
Total Gross Margin% = 56%
82% Subscription Gross Margin
Operating Margin = (-)12%
Their EV at $10 per share is $2.26B and at current price of $14.07, their current EV is $3.16B and LTM EV/Rev ~ 37.
As usual with SPACs, they have high projections for a 59% Revenue CAGR through 2025 taking them to $747M 2025 revenue but I believe those projections may be possible for them given how sticky their solutions could be in certain industries (RE, Insurance/Repair industry will always have a need to survey physical properties) and future optionality with all the data they are going to own across the globe (150+ countries currently). One thing to note here is that they are projecting their non-subscription business to come down to 14% of total revenue in 2025 from 48% in 2020. This is primarily because they have now started allowing iPhones for photography and as smart phone cameras get even more sophisticated, they probably will extend support to other smart phones and thus expect their proprietary camera sales to taper off over time.
Matterport in 90 seconds video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXDjMJJDbqo
Investor presentation - https://matterport.com/sites/default/files/media-files/Matte…
Voyager Digital VYGVF
– Only stock with a positive performance this month for me. They are a digital assets commission-free broker that allows for trading in crypto and stablecoins. They also offer up to 9.5% APR interest income on stablecoin deposits. They are not an exchange like Coinbase or Gemini but purely a brokerage firm, more like ETrade, Robinhood. I believe they can potentially transform into Robinhood of the virtual currencies with their zero fees claim. Co-Founded and led by ex-ETrade Brokerage VP Steve Ehrlich and he came across like a reasonable guy in a few videos found on YouTube.
Voyager is only mobile at this point, but they have plans to extend to desktop, debit cards, credit cards, margin, equity trading etc.
Investor presentation - https://assets.investvoyager.com/23KQMJh2TURSq_Z9?_ga=2.2548…
– An online marketplace for freelance services. Despite the tough comps later this year, they still guided for 53% YoY revenues for 2021, 80%+ gross margins and with positive adjusted EBTDA margins these past three quarters which tells me that their management is confident of sustained growth for freelance services in the marketplace. While their products mostly so far been B2C, I like their attempts at adding more B2B products.
Other aspects covered well in this post by imuafool - https://discussion.fool.com/fiverr8217s-superb-ongoing-growth-pe…
Skillz offers something unique to the gaming industry that allows for monetizing light weight competitions on the mobile internet. They announced their Q1 2021 outlook this past week which show that their revenues grew by 82% YoY but adjusted EBITDA margin is now a whopping negative -46.25% from around -20% end of 2019. They also were flat on MAUs YoY which is giving me doubts on this company as their CFO said “Typically, in our business, we see a fairly significant increase in the first quarter and then we see a flattening out over Q2, Q3, and Q4.” just a couple of weeks ago during their Q4 2020 ER call. Their stock is now -60% from ATH and perhaps they received a bigger beating than most because of the flat MAUs and steepening operating losses. However, paying MAUs which the management claims to be a more important metric than MAU to track, is up 74% YoY and 15% even with a tough comp from Q1 2020, so I’m currently inclined to maintain a position in them.
Ondas Holdings ONDS – A provider of a software defined network — an edge (or ‘fog’) cloud meant for private mission-critical wireless markets like Rail networks, Land mobile radio, oil and gas, drones etc. They serve a different market segment than commercial public networks (like Verizon, may be?) as they tend to focus on urban, more populated areas, where consumers use high-bandwidth connections. Almost no revenues at this time and by the nature of their products there is probably long sales cycles although stickiness aspect should be huge. A speculative position <1% position after seeing it on the same premium board that presented Conversion Labs. I’m still forming my mind if it is worth hanging onto these tiny <1% moonshot positions which are sourced ideas from paid services and I, myself will not be able to gain or retain conviction independently.
Curiosity Stream CURI - They are focused on maintaining a premium brand position as the leading factual content provider so they are hoping that consumers will think of them first for watching factual content even if similar content is available through other primarily script based programming services. They are relatively at a smaller revenue base of $40M LTM, but grew 120% YoY in 2020 and guided for at least 80% in 2021. Their adjusted EBITDA margins are still at over -137% but they have come down from an YoY basis. So not seeing any red signals to exit the position.
Nice writeup by 2020investor at - https://discussion.fool.com/curiositystream-curi-deep-dive-34755…
Conversion Labs LFMD (recently changed from Ticker CVLB) – A DTC telemedicine company that offers physician services for free but generates revenue from prescription medications and OTC products primarily targeting hair loss, immune health, men’s health segments. Just couldn’t gain enough conviction in them.
Square SQ – Still a lot to like about this company but figured at ~100B MarketCap and 23% YoY ex-Bitcoin revenue growth, there are probably better growth companies for me to invest in.
Snowflake SNOW – I was worried of holding on to them as they run into their lock up expiry mid-March but as the whole growth stocks took a hit, any selling pressure purely because of the lock-up was unnoticeable. Widely covered on this board and I like it too.
Teladoc TDOC - I’m finding it more and more difficult to follow them and maintain a conviction level enough to find a spot in my portfolio. I tried going through transcripts, going through the results again but it just appears that they have too many variables to go right for them to gain traction again and nothing seemed to be happening in the near future.
Shopify SHOP - Like Square, still like this company but at over 100B and tough comps this year, I just wanted give room for a smaller MarketCap and higher growth potential for this year. Also, I think Shopify still doesn’t have a strong enough foothold with consumers directly like that of FB, Google, Amazon that allowed them to keep rapidly growing past 100B MarketCap. I see that Shopify is attempting at going deep vertically with logistics, payments etc offerings and given their leadership quality they may eventually succeed but I don’t yet see enough traction with their Shop App.
A British-Portugese online luxury fashion retail platform. I was slightly disappointed by their Q4 2020 numbers given the holiday seasons. Their last four quarters YoY% revenue growth rates were 90%, 75%, 72%, 41% and makes me wonder if all their demand got pulled forward during the pandemic.
Remaining positions- Still holding CrowdStrike, Roku, Sea Ltd, Twilio, Pinterest, Etsy, Mercado Libre which are well covered on this board and my conviction hasn’t changed. Adjusted their allocation sizes as they kept sliding down at different speeds.