I received a broker notification this morning stating that all my UPST shares were borrowed for lending. Apparently the short-side demand is increasing.
This is just FYI. It does not affect my outlook for Upstart, nor should it affect yours. Do not panic.
🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.
Strange logic.
You must have hundreds of thousands of shares to reach such a conclusion based on a single seemingly tiny anecdote.
There are always momentum shorts in volatile stocks. The only thing that makes me uneasy is that i can’t see the bear case on the basis of fundamentals or on growth, and i’ve searched for it. I can see the high speed players like Renaissance Technologies playing the downside momentum trends. Love those shorts that have enabled me to truly load up the truck. I could be wrong and I’d welcome any sensible points on the negative side for UPST over the next couple of years.
Long opportunities like Upstart don’t come along everyday.
But don’t worry, i won’t panic out of my ultra long position as a result of your evidence.
The only thing that makes me uneasy is that i can’t see the bear case on the basis of fundamentals or on growth, and i’ve searched for it.
Don’t be too uneasy. 
As of this minute Upstart is up 15.1% TODAY.
Saul
You must have hundreds of thousands of shares to reach such a conclusion based on a single seemingly tiny anecdote.
Apparently you don’t understand how this works. Whether I have one share or thousands is immaterial. Just click “Ignore” and save yourself the bother to post. Then re-read Saul’s post just above.
Long UPST.
🆁🅶🅱
post tenebras lux
For not in my bow do I trust, nor can my sword save me.
Upstart dies have a small Saas component in that he platform includes servicing the lifetime of each loan. And there was this late last year…
The Upstart Blog-
We’re launching “Powered by Upstart”, a Software-as-a-Service offering derived from Upstart’s top-rated consumer lending platform. From rate requests through servicing and collections, this SaaS service brings modern technology and data science to the entire lending lifecycle.
https://www.upstart.com › blog › tag
Saas - Upstart Blog
The Q1 CC stated that each dealership would have a $1000 Saas fee annually…so very very small.
Upstart calls themselves a Saas company on occasion from what I’ve read. And they have 0.5%-1% ARR servicing each loan, but, I think you’re right it’s nothing like our other companies.
Long 13% Upstart
Jason
Don’t be too uneasy. As of this minute Upstart is up 15.1% TODAY.
Yesterday I was having FOMO…practically fully invested. But then I had to take a long hard look, and got rid of Docusign (at a net loss) and my remaining Zoom, where I finally had to be honest with myself and admit that I was really just holding for sentimental value. I bought some UPST, and when it dropped 10% yesterday I was happily in a position to buy some more.
So that green today is a pretty welcome sight…
very useful discussions on UPST…
While I have raised my position significantly (almost doubled)… to high single digit, here are a couple of points that I will still be cautious about…
T2SP argued on the other thread that moat related to AI model may be not as strong… while there are multiple puts and takes on that great thread, I would agree that this is a valid point over long term… probably not so much on the short term.
Bigger potential issues may be a few thats not yet discussed:
UPST may be too dynamic to rely on without being “negatively surprised”… they generate referral, they trade loans, they appraise risk… and I am sure they offer these in bits and pieces to different banks / institutional investors…
On one hand, it shows very smart and highly capable team, on the other hand, it is bit too much for a small company to do right without incurring risks…
May be I am paranoid, but I think the risk of “fumbling” is much higher for this company compared to most others discussed here… e.g. CRWD or OKTA or TWLO or DOCU for which you almost can predict and rely on next quarter and years progress…
ASP compression… this was my original concern… and still valid today… Few $100s cut for UPST for a loan total size of few $1,000s seem a bit excessive to me… it means either they operate at much lower level (otherwise called sub-prime) or work with much desperate institutions… and both of which may be “ok, until its not”
Market cycle risk… UPST is certainly in a supportive market cycle… there is too much money with institutions and consumers have had least need for debt, specially lower end consumer… with stimulus checks… and with re-opening, rising prices and such, need for debt is increasing… so UPST could not be better positioned to get the success they are getting… however, this will change and its hard to say how it will pan out.
In summary, I believe this is fantastic company to invest into right now… I just dont have enough confidence to say I will still be in this six months from now or a year from now… (which is very different from CRWD, SNOW, DDOG or even PINS for me)…
I’m not sure I share these concerns.
Just to check my understanding… I didn’t think Upstart was actually in the loans business. They offer platforms, tools, and APIs to empower lenders, right? Do they actually lend or trade loans themselves, with a stake in them?
“…may be too dynamic…” I don’t understand this one.
For all the reasons above I’m not sure how much macro lending market cycles will affect Upstart. I have a hard time believing this will be larger and more important than the speed of their growth.
I have no timeframe here. The recent acquisition is a clear a move toward taking on auto loans next (as well as them saying as much) and I have to assume that will have a long tail. They can add more segments too. I’m still learning about this one, obviously, but I’m feeling pretty good about it so far.